Application of lagged correlations between solar cycles and hydrosphere components towards sub-decadal forecasts of streamflows in the Western USA     

Michael G. Wallace 《水文科学杂志》2019,64(2):137-164

Trade winds localized within the Western Equatorial Pacific express lagged and statistically significant correlations to sunspot numbers as well as to streamflow in rivers of the Southern Rocky Mountains. Both correlation sets were integrated in a linear regression analysis to produce relatively accurate sub-decadal streamflow forecasts for an annual and a 5-year average. In comparison to the autocorrelation technique, the prototyped method yielded the highest correlations, the highest goodness-of-fit scores, and the lowest root mean squared errors, for both the 5-year average and the annual average assignments. Of all of the cases examined, the highest Kolmogorov-Smirnov test scores between observation and prediction were found for the single solar-based forecast 5 years in advance for the 60-month average streamflow of the Animas River in New Mexico.  相似文献   

Interrelations between Si and P biogeochemical cycles—a new approach to the solution of the eutrophication problem     

V. Krivtsov  E. Bellinger  D. Sigee  J. Corliss 《水文研究》2000,14(2):283-295

Because the biogeochemical cycles of P and Si in temperate lakes are strongly connected by the dynamics of primary producers, it should be possible to influence the former cycle by causing changes in the latter. It is shown using the mathematical model ‘Rostherne’ that winter levels of ambient Si have a major influence both on spring levels of ambient P and on the summer cyanobacterial maxima. Additions of Si to the lakes could be used for the fine regulation of the biogeochemical balance and may prescribe a recipe for improvement of water quality, as well as a new solution to the problem of eutrophication. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

冻融循环对黄土渗透系数各向异性影响的试验研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

赵茜  苏立君  刘华  杨金熹 《冰川冻土》2020,42(3):843-853

为了反映冻融循环作用对原状黄土渗透各向异性及原状、 重塑黄土渗透差异的影响, 以西安Q₃黄土为研究对象, 通过三轴固结渗透试验对比分析了冻融前后水平、 竖直向原状黄土及重塑黄土的渗透系数随初始含水率、 围压、 冻融循环次数变化的规律。结果表明： 未冻融时各级围压下竖直向原状黄土的渗透系数为2×10^-6 ~ 18×10^-6 cm?s^-1, 水平向原状黄土和重塑黄土的渗透系数为0 ~ 4×10^-6 cm?s^-1; 经历冻融循环后, 水平、 竖直向原状黄土及重塑黄土的渗透系数与初始含水率的关系曲线分别呈现逐渐上升、 抛物线形式与变化平缓的不同特征, 而三者的渗透系数均随冻融循环次数的增加呈现数量级增大的趋势; 原状黄土的竖直 - 水平渗透系数比（k_v /k_h ）由冻融前的4.38逐渐减小到0.90, 可见冻融循环作用在显著提高黄土渗透性能的同时, 可以强烈弱化其各向异性特征。通过建立围压、 渗透系数与土体孔隙率的相关关系可知, 原状、 重塑黄土的孔隙率与围压存在极强的负线性相关性, 渗透系数随围压的增大呈典型指数衰减特征, 渗透系数与孔隙率具有相似的变化趋势, 因此冻融循环过程中土体孔隙率的改变是导致其渗透性质变化的主要原因。  相似文献   

The sediment-fill of Pago Pago Bay (Tutuila Island,American Samoa): New insights on the sediment record of past tsunamis     

Brieuc Riou  Eric Chaumillon  Jean-Luc Schneider  Thierry Corrège  Catherine Chagué 《Sedimentology》2020,67(3):1577-1600

Extensive bathymetric and two-dimensional seismic surveys have been carried out and cores collected in Pago Pago Bay (Tutuila, American Samoa) in order to describe and gain a better understanding of the sediment fill of the bay, which was affected by the 2009 South Pacific Tsunami. Eight sedimentary units were identified over the volcanic bedrock. The basal transgressive unit displays retrograding onlaps towards the shore, whereas the overlying seven aggradational layers alternate between four draping units and three pinching out seaward units. ‘Core to seismic’ correlation reveals that draping units are composed of homogeneous silts, while pinching out units are dominated by very coarse coral fragments showing fresh cuts, mixed with Halimeda plates. The basal unit is attributed to transgressive sedimentation in response to flooding of the bay after the last glacial maximum, followed by the upper aggradational units corresponding to highstand sedimentation. The changeovers in these upper units indicate an alternation between low-energy silt units and high-energy coral debris units interpreted as tsunami-induced deposits. The ¹⁴C dating reveals that high-energy sedimentation units can last up to approximately 2000 years while low-energy sedimentation units can last up to approximately 1000 years. This alternation, deposited during the last highstand, may be explained by cycles of tectonic activity and quiescence of the Tonga Trench subduction, which is the main source of tsunamigenic earthquakes impacting the Samoan archipelago. In the uppermost silt unit, only the geochemical signature of the terrestrial input of the 2009 SPT backwash deposits was detected between 7 cm and 9 cm depth. Hence, Pago Pago Bay offers a unique sediment record of Holocene bay-fill under the impact of past tsunamis intermittently during the last 7000 years.  相似文献   

Amplitude,frequency and drivers of Caspian Sea lake-level variations during the Early Pleistocene and their impact on a protected wave-dominated coastline     

Elisabeth L. Jorissen  Hemmo A. Abels  Frank P. Wesselingh  Sergei Lazarev  Vusala Aghayeva  Wout Krijgsman 《Sedimentology》2020,67(1):649-676

The Caspian Sea, the largest isolated lake in the world, witnessed drastic lake-level variations during the Quaternary. This restricted basin appears very sensitive to lake-level variations, due to important variations in regional evaporation, precipitation and runoff. The amplitude, frequency and drivers of these lake-level changes are still poorly documented and understood. Studying geological records of the Caspian Sea might be the key to better comprehend the complexity of these oscillations. The Hajigabul section documents sediment deposited on the northern margin of the Kura Basin, a former embayment of the Caspian Sea. The 2035 m thick, well-exposed section was previously dated by magneto-biostratigraphic techniques and provides an excellent record of Early Pleistocene environmental, lake-level and climate changes. Within this succession, the 1050 m thick Apsheronian regional stage, between ca 2·1 Ma and 0·85 Ma, represents a particular time interval with 20 regressive sequences documented by sedimentary and palaeontological changes. Sequences are regressing from offshore to coastal, lagoonal or terrestrial settings and are bounded by abrupt flooding events. Sediment reveals a low energy, wave-dominated, reflective beach system. Wave baselines delimiting each facies association appear to be located at shallower bathymetries compared to the open ocean. Water depth estimations of the wave baselines allow reconstruction of a lake-level curve, recording oscillations of ca 40 m amplitude. Cyclostratigraphic analyses display lake-level frequency close to 41 kyr, pointing to allogenic forcing, dominated by obliquity cycles and suggesting a direct or indirect link with high-latitude climates and environments. This study provides a detailed lake-level curve for the Early Pleistocene Caspian Sea and constitutes a first step towards a better comprehension of the magnitude, occurrence and forcing mechanisms of Caspian Sea lake-level changes. Facies models developed in this study regarding sedimentary architectures of palaeocoastlines affected by repeated lake-level fluctuations may form good analogues for other (semi-)isolated basins worldwide.  相似文献   

Typical Soft–Sediment Deformation Structures Induced by Freeze/Thaw Cycles: A Case Study of Quaternary Alluvial Deposits in the Northern Qiangtang Basin, Tibetan Plateau     

ZHONG Ning  LI Haibing  JIANG Hanchao  LU Haijian  ZHENG Yong  HAN Shuai  YE Jiachan 《《地质学报》英文版》2020,94(1):176-188

With the objective of establishing a distinction between deformation structures caused by freeze/thaw cycles and those resulting from seismic activity, we studied three well–exposed alluvial deposits in a section at Dogai Coring, northern Qiangtang Basin, Tibetan Plateau. Deformation is present in the form of plastic structures(diapirs, folds and clastic dykes), brittle structures(micro–faults) and cryogenic wedges. These soft–sediment deformation features(except the micro–faults) are mainly characterized by meter–scale, non–interlayered, low–speed and low–pressure displacements within soft sediments, most commonly in the form of plastic deformation. Taking into account the geographic setting, lithology and deformation features, we interpret these soft–sediment deformation features as the products of freeze/thaw cycles, rather than of earthquake–induced shock waves, thus reflecting regional temperature changes and fluctuations of hydrothermal conditions in the uppermost sediments. The micro–faults(close to linear hot springs) are ascribed to regional fault activity; however, we were unable to identify the nature of the micro–faults, perhaps due to disturbance by subsequent freeze/thaw cycles. This study may serve as a guide to recognizing the differences between deformation structures attributed to freeze/thaw cycles and seismic processes.  相似文献   

Late Quaternary cycles of mangrove development and decline on the north Australian continental shelf     

John Grindrod  Patrick Moss  Sander Van Der Kaars 《第四纪科学杂志》1999,14(5):465-470

Mangrove communities in the Australian tropics presently occur as narrow belts of vegetation in estuaries and on sheltered, muddy coasts. Palynological data from continental-shelf and deep-sea cores indicate a long-term cyclical component of mangrove development and decline at a regional scale, which can be linked to specific phases of late Quaternary sea-level change. Extensive mangrove development, relative to today, occurs during periods of marine transgression, whereas very diminished mangrove occurs during marine regressions and during rarer periods of relative sea-level stability. Episodes of flourishing mangrove cannot be linked to phases of humid climate, as has been suggested in studies elsewhere. Rather, the cycle of expansion and decline of mangrove communities on a grand scale is explained in terms of contrasting physiographic settings characteristic of continental-shelf coasts during transgressive and regressive phases, in particular by the existence, or lack, of well-developed tidal estuaries. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Effects of irradiance on benthic and water column processes in a Gulf of Mexico estuary: Pensacola Bay, Florida, USA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael C. Murrell  Jed G. Campbell  James D. Hagy III  Jane M. Caffrey 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,81(4):501-512

We examined the effect of light on water column and benthic fluxes in the Pensacola Bay estuary, a river-dominated system in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Measurements were made during the summers of 2003 and 2004 on 16 dates distributed along depth and salinity gradients. Dissolved oxygen fluxes were measured on replicate sediment and water column samples exposed to a gradient of photosynthetically active radiation. Sediment inorganic nutrient (NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, PO₄³⁻) fluxes were measured. The response of dissolved oxygen fluxes to variation in light was fit to a photosynthesis–irradiance model and the parameter estimates were used to calculate daily integrated production in the water column and the benthos. The results suggest that shoal environments supported substantial benthic productivity, averaging 13.6 ± 4.7 mmol O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹, whereas channel environments supported low benthic productivity, averaging 0.5 ± 0.3 mmol O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹ (±SE). Estimates of baywide microphytobenthic productivity ranged from 8.1 to 16.5 mmol O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹, comprising about 16–32% of total system productivity. Benthic and water column dark respiration averaged 15.2 ± 3.2 and 33.6 ± 3.7 mmol O₂ m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively Inorganic nutrient fluxes were generally low compared to relevant estuarine literature values, and responded minimally to light exposure. Across all stations, nutrient fluxes from sediments to the water column averaged 1.11 ± 0.98 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ for NH₄⁺, 0.58 ± 1.08 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ for NO₃⁻, 0.01 ± 0.09 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹ for PO₄³⁻. The results of this study illustrate how light reaching the sediments is an important modulator of benthic nutrient and oxygen dynamics in shallow estuarine systems.  相似文献   

Summer phytoplankton blooms in the oligotrophic North Pacific Subtropical Gyre: Historical perspective and recent observations     

John E. Dore  Ricardo M. Letelier  Roger Lukas 《Progress in Oceanography》2008,76(1):2-38

The export of organic matter from the oceanic euphotic zone is a critical process in the global biogeochemical cycling of bioelements (C, N, P, Si). Much of this export occurs in the form of sinking particles, which rain down into the unlit waters of the deep sea. Classical models of oceanic production and export balance this gravitational loss of particulate bioelements with an upward flux of dissolved nutrients, and they describe reasonably well those areas of the ocean where deep winter mixing occurs. The surface waters of the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre (NPSG), however, are strongly stratified and chronically nutrient-depleted, especially in summer. Nevertheless, there is ample evidence that blooms of phytoplankton and subsequent pulses of particle export occur during the height of summer stratification in these waters, especially to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. These blooms impact regional bioelemental cycling and act as a food source to the deep-sea benthos. We review here numerous published observations of these events in the NPSG, and present new data collected at Station ALOHA (22.75°N, 158°W) during the first 176 cruises of the Hawaii Ocean Time-series program (1988-2005), along with results from transect cruises conducted in the region in 1996 and 2005. We suggest that the summer phytoplankton bloom can be considered a frequent, perhaps annual feature in the northeastern NPSG, and that its perceived stochastic nature is a manifestation of chronic undersampling in time and space. The bloom is typically dominated by only a few genera of large diatoms and the cyanobacterium Trichodesmium. It appears to be consistently supported by dinitrogen fixation, but the fate of the organic matter produced during the summer depends critically on the species composition of the responsible diazotrophs. We estimate that the summer bloom is responsible for up to 38% of N₂ fixation and up to 18% of N-based new production annually at Station ALOHA. We hypothesize that the spatial distribution, timing and magnitude of the bloom may be determined largely by the physical and biological processes controlling new phosphorus delivery into the euphotic zone during the summer and the preceding winter.  相似文献   

Estimation of submarine groundwater discharge in Plover Cove, Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong by Rn     

Kiu Chung Tse  Jiu Jimmy Jiao   《Marine Chemistry》2008,111(3-4):160-170

Algal blooms in Tolo Harbour, Hong Kong have received much attention and submarine groundwater discharge is speculated to be a significant pathway carrying nutrients into the constricted estuary. Plover Cove, a small cove in the Harbour, was selected for SGD analysis using ²²²Rn budget. The volumetric SGD rates are estimated to be about 8000 m³/day for neap tide and about 17,000 m³/day for spring tide. Result of nutrient analysis of the porewater indicates that the nutrient loading through this pathway is speculated to be crucial for eutrophication in Tolo Harbour. Current practice for the management of algal blooms in Hong Kong, in which nutrient loading through SGD was ignored, has to be reviewed and the control measures of groundwater contamination are obviously required.  相似文献