剥蚀型汇聚板块边缘大地震成因机理研究:来自国际综合大洋钻探344航次的报告   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

李永祥  鄢全树  赵西西 《地球科学进展》2013,28(6):728-736

旨在探究剥蚀型汇聚板块边缘大地震成因机理的国际综合大洋钻探(IODP)344航次于2012年10月23日至12月11日在中美洲地震频发的哥斯达黎加西部海域实施钻探。介绍了钻探区域的大地构造特征、该航次的主要科学目标、执行情况、所取得的初步成果以及对航次后研究工作的展望等。航次后更多深入细致的研究工作正在进行中,所取得的研究成果将集中在2014年南京召开的航次后学术研讨会上汇报、交流、集成、总结,从而提升对剥蚀型汇聚板块边缘大地震起源机理的认识。  相似文献   

上海地区淤泥粉砂土层HDD钻井液优化     

王道宽  乌效鸣  张晓静  贺建群  朱永刚 《岩土钻凿工程》2013,(6):8-12

针对非开挖水平定向钻在上海地区钻遇的复杂地层一淤泥粉砂土层,设计高端、低端两种不同钻井液的配方体系,满足工程现场对泥浆各性能指标的要求,包括：适宜的比重、较小的失水量、高稳定性、强悬渣性、润滑性等。在达到要求的前提下,进行多种复配,以期在质量上优于目前国内外相应钻井液体系的前提下尽量降低成本,在保护周围的城市环境下,安全的钻进。  相似文献   

北京降水相态判别指标及检验   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

尤凤春  郭丽霞  史印山  曾剑 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(5):49-54

为提高降水相态预报准确率,以北京南郊观象台为代表站,选取1951年1月至2011年4月逐日20时至20时出现的雨夹雪日数,统计分析其月变化特征;再选取2000-2011年10月-4月08时和20时出现的雨、雨夹雪、雪个例,使用与降水个例对应时次的地面及高空常规观测数据,统计分析各层常用气象要素在各降水相态判别中的作用,并找出主要影响因子及降水相态判别指标;应用多元回归方法,建立降水相态统计预报方程,并对方程及判别指标进行检验。结果表明：雨和雪的温度、露点平均值在低层（地面到850 hPa）有明显差异,但随着高度增加其差异逐渐减小;因雨和雪的温度露点差平均值各层差异均很小,使用温度露点差很难区分降水相态;经过对2011年11月至2012年3月出现的降水相态进行检验可知,总结出的地面温度和露点判别指标以及降水相态统计预报方程均有一定的参考价值,可为今后做降水相态预报服务提供参考依据。  相似文献   

控制论与人工影响天气 III: 自然控制论在人工增雨作业中的应用框架   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

曾庆存  吴琳  洪钟祥 《气候与环境研究》2012,17(6):986-990

应用自然控制论的理论方法,提出人工增雨作业和效果检验的框架.它将事前和作业进行过程中的观测和预报、调控方案(滚动式的和有反馈回路的)、作业和效果检验紧密联系成一个整体系统,将调控方案提为最优化问题,并把不断的观测资料同化到滚动式预报模式和求优化之中.所提出的一种效果检验方法是比较客观和定量的.  相似文献   

发震带试验(SEIZE)     

王利  周祖翼 《地球科学进展》2005,20(8):823-832

对发震带试验计划(SEIZE)以及南海（Nankai）海槽的发震带钻探计划（NanTroSEIZE）进行了综述。SEIZE作为大陆边缘计划(MARGINS)的重要研究内容和综合大洋钻探计划（IODP）的优先研究领域,重点对世界主要俯冲发震带进行研究。SEIZE的主要研究内容包括：①凸凹体的物理性质;②在地震周期里,应力、应变和孔隙流体成分随时间的变化;③在俯冲逆冲断层上,发震带上界和下界的确定;④引起海啸的发震带的特征;⑤大型逆冲带地震在物质转换过程中所起的作用。NanTroSEIZE将成为IODP第一个基于立管钻探的计划,也是科学大洋钻探历史上第一个分期实施的复合钻探计划;钻入发震带的复合钻探计划将最终验证关于发震带的各种假说。   相似文献   

太行山东缘石家庄南部地壳结构及断裂活动性探测   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

杨晓平  刘保金  詹艳  姬计法  徐锡伟  酆少英  高翠君  赵万里  梁贵平  杜晓泉 《地球物理学报》2016,59(2):528-542

采用深、浅地震反射和钻孔地质剖面相结合的方法,对太行山东缘石家庄南部的地壳结构和隐伏断裂的活动性进行了研究.深地震反射探测结果表明,该区地壳厚度33~38km,莫霍面从华北平原向太行山下倾伏.石家庄—晋县凹陷是受拆离断层控制的盆岭构造,太行山山前断裂为凹陷的西边界断裂,表现为上陡下缓的铲形断裂.石家庄—晋县凹陷中还发育北席断裂和栾城断裂,它们与太行山山前断裂一样受拆离断层的控制,未错断早更新世晚期以来沉积的地层不属于活动断裂.深地震反射剖面的中部还揭示了一个近垂直的穹窿状反射异常体,它可能起源于莫霍面,向上,穿过上、下地壳分界面,并延伸至上地壳.穹窿状反射异常体内部反射波视频率随深度增加而降低,在莫霍面附近的壳幔过渡带也出现明显的频率降低、界面扭曲和变形现象,推断它可能是上地幔岩浆上涌到地壳内部的侵入体.结合电磁测深结果可以发现,上地幔热物质的上涌和东、西向拉张可能是形成石家庄—晋县凹陷的动力学机制.探测结果为深入理解石家庄地区的深部地球动力学过程、华北克拉通破坏机制、深浅构造关系和地震构造提供了依据.  相似文献   

Gas hydrate saturation at Site C0002, IODP Expeditions 314 and 315, in the Kumano Basin,Nankai trough     

Ayumu Miyakawa  Saneatsu Saito  Yasuhiro Yamada  Hitoshi Tomaru  Masataka Kinoshita  Takeshi Tsuji 《Island Arc》2014,23(2):142-156

The degree of gas hydrate saturation at Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site C0002 in the Kumano Basin, Nankai Trough, was estimated from logging‐while‐drilling logs and core samples obtained during IODP Expeditions 314 and 315. Sediment porosity data necessary for the calculation of saturation were obtained from both core samples and density logs. Two forms of the Archie equation (‘quick‐look’ and ‘standard’) were used to calculate gas hydrate saturation from two types of electrical resistivity log data (ring resistivity and bit resistivity), and a three‐phase Biot‐type equation was used to calculate gas hydrate saturation from P‐wave velocity log data. The gas hydrate saturation baseline calculated from both resistivity logs ranges from 0% to 35%, and that calculated from the P‐wave velocity log ranges from 0% to 30%. High levels of gas hydrate saturation (>60%) are present as spikes in the ring resistivity log and correspond to the presence of gas hydrate concentrations within sandy layers. At several depths, saturation values obtained from P‐wave velocity data are lower than those obtained from bit resistivity data; this discrepancy is related to the presence of free gas at these depths. Previous research has suggested that gas from deep levels in the Kumano Basin has migrated up‐dip towards the southern and seaward edge of the basin near Site C0002. The high saturation values and presence of free gas at site C0002 suggest that a large gas flux is flowing to the southern and seaward edge of the basin from a deeper and/or more landward part of the Kumano Basin, with the southern edge of the Kumano Basin (the location of site C0002) being the main area of fluid accumulation.  相似文献   

Application and Verification of Joint Probability Method in Potential Forecast for Severe Convective Weather in Anhui Province     

Yuejia Zhu  Rui Xing  Mingjia Zhu  Dongyong Wang  Xuexing Qiu 《地球科学进展》2019,34(7):731-746

In consideration of large uncertainties in severe convective weather forecast, ensemble forecasting is a dynamic method developed to quantitatively estimate forecast uncertainty. Based on ensemble output, joint probability is a post-processing method to delineate key areas where weather event may actually occur by taking account of the uncertainty of several important physical parameters. An investigation of the environments of little rainfall convection and strong rainfall convection from April to September (warm season) during 2009-2015 was presented using daily disastrous weather data, precipitation data of 80 stations in Anhui province and NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data. Through ingredients-based forecasting methodology and statistical analysis,four convective parameters characterizing two types of convection were obtained, respectively, which were used to establish joint probability forecasting together with their corresponding thresholds. Using the ECMWF ensemble forecast and observations from April to September during 2016-2017, systematic verification mainly based on ROC and case study of different weather processes were conducted. The results demonstrate that joint probability method is capable of discriminating little rainfall convection and non-convection with comparable performance for different lead times, which is more favorable to identifying the occurrence of strong rainfall convection. The joint probability of little rainfall convection is a good indication for the occurrence of regional or local convection, but may produce some false alarms. The joint probability of strong rainfall convection is good at indicating regional concentrated short-term heavy precipitation as well as local heavy rainfall. There are also individual missing reports in this method, and in practice, 10% can be roughly used as joint probability threshold to achieve relative high TS score. Overall, ensemble-based joint probability method can provide practical short-term probabilistic guidance for severe convective weather.  相似文献   

Linkage of deep sea rapid acidification process and extinction of benthic foraminifera in the deep sea at the Paleocene/Eocene transition          下载免费PDF全文

Hodaka Kawahata  Ritsuo Nomura  Katsumi Matsumoto  Hiroshi Nishi 《Island Arc》2015,24(3):301-316

Ocean Drilling Program Leg 199 Site 1220 provides a continuous sedimentary section across the Paleocene/Eocene (P/E) transition in the carbonate‐bearing sediments on 56–57 Ma oceanic crust. The large negative δ¹³C shift in seawater is likely due to the disintegration of methane hydrate, which is expected to be rapidly changed to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and well‐oxygenated seawater, leading to a reduction in deep‐sea pH. A pH decrease was very likely responsible for the emergence of agglutinated foraminiferal fauna as calcareous fauna was eliminated by acidification at the P/E transition at Site 1220. The absence of the more resistant calcareous benthic foraminifera and the presence of the planktonic foraminifera at Site 1220 is interesting and unique, which indicates that calcareous benthic foraminifera suffered greatly from living on the seafloor. Box model calculation demonstrates that, assuming the same mean alkalinity as today, pCO₂ must increase from 280 ppm to about 410 ppm for the calcite undersaturation in the deep ocean and for the oversaturation in the surface ocean during the P/E transition. The calculated increased pCO₂ coincides with paleo‐botanical evidence. The current global emission rate (～7.3 peta (10¹⁵) gC/y) of anthropogenic carbon input is approximately 30 times of the estimate at the P/E transition. The results at the P/E transition give an implication that the deep sea benthic fauna will be threatened in future in combination with ocean acidification, increased sea surface temperature and more stratified surface water.  相似文献   

CAPPS3模式在福州市预报效果检验   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王宏  冯宏芳  石钰  隋平  余永江 《气象与环境学报》2011,27(4):25-29

对2009年7月至2010年6月区域空气质量数值预报模式CAPPS3在福州市的应用进行效果检验,分析各季节CAPPS3预报福州市3种污染物SO₂、NO₂和PM₁₀的等级预报准确率、转折性天气预报准确率与监测值的相关系数以及综合评分。结果表明：夏秋季节CAPPS3模式3种污染物等级预报准确率较高,冬季NO₂和春季PM₁₀的等级预报准确率较低,错误等级预报多数偏高;转折性天气预报准确率夏秋季最高,春季最低,模式对天气形势的变化反应不灵敏,特别是污染物浓度突变时,预报能力较差,当天气形势稳定时,预报效果较好;浓度预报值较监测值有偏大和滞后的缺点;相关系数及综合评分结果夏秋季最高,春季最低。CAPPS3总体预报效果较好,可提供有价值的指导预报,适合业务运行。  相似文献