Using regional regression within index flood procedures and an empirical Bayesian estimator     

Heinz D. Fill  Jery R. Stedinger 《Journal of Hydrology》1998,210(1-4):128-145

Studies have illustrated the performance of at-site and regional flood quantile estimators. For realistic generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions and short records, a simple index-flood quantile estimator performs better than two-parameter (2P) GEV quantile estimators with probability weighted moment (PWM) estimation using a regional shape parameter and at-site mean and L-coefficient of variation (L-CV), and full three-parameter at-site GEV/PWM quantile estimators. However, as regional heterogeneity or record lengths increase, the 2P-estimator quickly dominates. This paper generalizes the index flood procedure by employing regression with physiographic information to refine a normalized T-year flood estimator. A linear empirical Bayes estimator uses the normalized quantile regression estimator to define a prior distribution which is employed with the normalized 2P-quantile estimator. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that this empirical Bayes estimator does essentially as well as or better than the simpler normalized quantile regression estimator at sites with short records, and performs as well as or better than the 2P-estimator at sites with longer records or smaller L-CV.  相似文献   

An enlarged and updated internally consistent thermodynamic dataset with uncertainties and correlations: the system K2O–Na2O–CaO–MgO–MnO–FeO–Fe2O3–Al2O3–TiO2–SiO2–C–H2–O2     

T. J. B. HOLLAND  R. POWELL 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》1990,8(1):89-124

We present, as a progress report, a revised and much enlarged version of the thermodynamic dataset given earlier (Holland & Powell, 1985). This new set includes data for 123 mineral and fluid end-members made consistent with over 200 P–T–X_CO2–f_O2 phase equilibrium experiments. Several improvements and advances have been made, in addition to the increased coverage of mineral phases: the data are now presented in three groups ranked according to reliability; a large number of iron-bearing phases has been included through experimental and, in some cases, natural Fe:Mg partitioning data; H₂O and CO₂ contents of cordierites are accounted for with the solution model of Kurepin (1985); simple Landau theory is used to model lambda anomalies in heat capacity and the Al/Si order–disorder behaviour in some silicates, and Tschermak-substituted end-members have been derived for iron and magnesium end-members of chlorite, talc, muscovite, biotite, pyroxene and amphibole. For the subset of data which overlap those of Berman (1988), it is encouraging to find both (1) very substantial agreement between the two sets of thermodynamic data and (2) that the two sets reproduce the phase equilibrium experimental brackets to a very similar degree of accuracy. The main differences in the two datasets involve size (123 as compared to 67 end-members), the methods used in data reduction (least squares as compared to linear programming), and the provision for estimation of uncertainties with this dataset. For calculations on mineral assemblages in rocks, we aim to maximize the information available from the dataset, by combining the equilibria from all the reactions which can be written between the end-members in the minerals. For phase diagram calculations, we calculate the compositions of complex solid solutions (together with P and T) involved in invariant, univariant and divariant assemblages. Moreover we strongly believe in attempting to assess the probable uncertainties in calculated equilibria and hence provide a framework for performing simple error propagation in all calculations in thermocalc, the computer program we offer for an effective use of the dataset and the calculation methods we advocate.  相似文献   

Notions of justice held by stakeholders of the Newfoundland fishery     

《Marine Policy》2015

Justice is an important and contested issue in the governance of fish stocks threatened by overexploitation. This study identifies the notions of justice held by stakeholders of the fishery in Newfoundland, Canada, using qualitative interviews, and interprets these notions in light of established justice theories. The interviews are analysed using inductive and deductive coding. A central result is that inshore fishers are seen as the main claim holders, with a claim to participate and be listened to, and the opportunity to make a living from the fishery. Moreover, rules play an important role in the justice notions of the interview partners, and their justice notions are clearly plural. The stakeholder notions of justice in the Newfoundland fishery resonate with the emphasis on recognition, participation and distribution as important aspects of justice within the environmental justice approach [59-61] (Schlosberg 2004, 2007, 2013).  相似文献   

经验模态分解方法在树木年轮宽度序列标准化中的应用     

张永 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2015,9(5):9-15

高分辨率的树木年轮是记录历史时期气候变化的良好生物载体,在古气候研究中被广泛应用。但年轮宽度与气候因子之间有着复杂的联系,这种关系受气候因子之间的相互制衡和因物种而异的树木生长节律的共同影响。在利用树木年轮开展历史时期气候变化的研究中,剔除树木年轮与年龄相关的生长趋势是准确获取气候信号的先决条件。然而,传统的和相对改进的一些树轮标准化方法在拟合并剔除树龄相关的趋势及非气候干扰信息方面仍存在一些问题。本文利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法进行树轮资料的标准化方法研究, 对已获得的树轮生长序列所记录的信息进行分解,得到一系列不同物理意义的本征模态分量,结合多样本信息的对比及生物学特性,深入解读各分量表征的气候变化、环境干扰及缓慢生长趋势项等不同物理意义,进而剔除非气候信息,得到可以准确反映气候变化的代用序列,并将该方法与目前广泛采用的标准化方法进行对比,分析不同方法的利弊所在,为进一步改进树轮标准化方法提供新思路。  相似文献   

Distribution and ecology of Nectocarcinus antarcticus and N. bennetti (Brachyura: Portunidae) in the New Zealand region     

W. de L. Main 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2013,47(1):15-38

The distributions of two swimming crabs endemic to the New Zealand region are described, mostly from material obtained at 118 of 2544 New Zealand Oceanographic Institute benthic stations sampled.

Nectocarcinus antarcticus (Jacquinot) was found within the geographic limits 34°S‐51°S and 166° E‐176° W, with concentrations around Cook Strait, the Chatham Rise, Foveaux Strait, and the Auckland Is. N. bennetti (Takeda & Miyake) occurred between 44° S and 53° S, and 165° E and 180°, most frequently in the south and west, on the ‘highs’ of the Campbell Plateau. Although the distributions overlap between 44° S and 51° S, and this overlap zone produced most of the available material, only one joint occurrence of the two species was noted. This apparent separation was not satisfactorily explained by any of the ecological factors recorded. The depth ranges of both species were broadly similar (0–550 m for TV. antarcticus, 20–474 m for JV. bennetti); both were most frequently obtained at depths less than 200 m. Both occurred primarily on the coarser sediment grades, though N. antarcticus occupied a broader range of grades than N. bennetti.

The size ranges of the two species were similar; carapace lengths were 8.0–62.0 mm for N. antarcticus and 5.8–68.0 mm for N. bennetti. The larger specimens of both species were found towards the southern limits of distribution. Larger specimens of N. antarcticus were absent from depths greater than 120 m; smaller N. antarcticus and all N. bennetti occurred throughout their respective depth ranges. Ovigerous N. antarcticus (smallest, 8.8 mm carapace length) were obtained at depths of 17–263 m from May to October; ovigerous N. bennetti (smallest 36.1 mm) were from depths of 150–183 m in May only.  相似文献   

迭代法计算H2O-CO2-NaCl包裹体均一压力的改进及其应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

席斌斌  施伟军  张德会  徐文刚  蒋宏  王成 《矿床地质》2010,29(6):1138-1144

文章在宋玉财等于2007年提出的利用迭代法计算流体包裹体成分及均一压力的基础上,结合Duan等通过热力学模拟研究所获得的最新的热力学方程及H2O-CO2-NaCl包裹体pVtx计算程序,对宋玉财等所提出的H2O-CO2-NaCl包裹体成分及均一压力的迭代计算法提出了改进意见,同时对其进行了适当的修改。文章利用中-低温条件下求解CO2在盐水中的溶解度及摩尔体积的方程,提高了原方法的计算精度,并将原方法的适用范围（均一温度≥300 ℃）扩展到中_低温（0～260 ℃）、中_低压力（0～1 000×105Pa）以及中等盐度的范围。本方法适用于求解CO2部分均一温度高于笼形物融化温度、不含石盐子矿物且完全均一到水溶液相的H2O-CO2-NaCl包裹体。  相似文献   

1961-2010年河北省太阳直接辐射时空分布特征研究     

张益炜  袁淑杰  高旭旭  李德江  李晓虹  刘振宏  张文宗 《气象与环境学报》2014,30(1):95-99

利用1961-2010年河北省周边7个太阳辐射观测站的资料,拟合得出相对精确的河北省太阳直接辐射经验公式,分析了河北省太阳直接辐射时空变化特征。结果表明：河北省近50 a来太阳直接辐射年总量总体呈明显的下降趋势。其中,下降幅度相对较大的石家庄为25%,下降幅度相对较小的唐山为11%。河北省水平面太阳直接辐射年总量近50 a平均值空间差异较大,<2540MJ·m^-2 主要分布在邢台南部,>3510MJ·m^-2 主要分布在张家口西北部,大部分地区介于2540-3300MJ·m^-2 。河北省太阳能资源开发利用潜力比较大的区域主要在张家口的坝上地区。  相似文献   

长三角盛夏—初秋强降水的延伸期过程预报探析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

信飞  陈伯民  孙国武  王超 《气象科学》2014,34(6):672-677

针对长三角汛期强降水过程,根据不同降水类型的特性,提出分时段建立低频模型并给出建模流程。综合分析长三角汛期强降水期的低频特性,将低频气旋及反气旋区分划分7个关键区。重点研究盛夏—初秋时段的强降水特征,在总结强降水期低频特征的基础上,借助EOF分解建立延伸期大—暴雨的预报模型:1区或2区有低频气旋维持并发展;6区、7区或5区存在低频反气旋。并且在7个关键区中1、2区的低频气旋及5、6、7区的低频反气旋为主要低频系统,起决定作用,而3区的低频系统为次要低频系统,起辅助作用。利用该模型提前30 d预报出2012年汛期最强降水过程,并分析本次过程的低频系统演变,给出动态演变模型。  相似文献   

经验模态分解和独立分量分解在航磁数据处理中的应用     

王成彬  陈建国  肖凡  梁良 《江苏地质》2014,38(4):623-629

以东天山1∶20万航磁数据为例,利用经验模态分解(EMD)方法对航磁数据进行分解,然后利用独立分量分析(ICA)方法对分解出的固有模态函数(IMF)数据进行重构。分解出来的从高频到低频IMF与地质体的分布具有一定的相关性,不同频率的IMF代表了一定的地质意义。经过ICA重构后的独立分量(IC)能够对异常IMF函数从盲源分离的角度进行有效的重构,其结果可以在一定程度上解释不同的地质事件对磁异常的贡献,并对构造识别和构造区域划分具有一定的指示意义。  相似文献   

基于数字地形的三维道路快速建模与应用     

王阳生 《北京测绘》2014,(6):36-39

介绍一种在高精度三维地形模型的基础上,通过导入道路规划设计快速生成三维道路模型,并进行土石方量计算等量化分析的方法。基于三维道路模型,可以开展各类可视化分析和规划管理工作,为非专业人士理解规划设计意图提供了直观的方式。最后,以典型示范应用为例,说明研究成果可应用的领域和效果。  相似文献