基于空间检验技术的甘肃河东地区短时暴雨预报产品误差分析     

韩晶  路亚奇  曹彦超  焦美玲 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2023,17(1):83-89

以6个短时暴雨过程为例,采用空间检验技术对甘肃河东地区短时暴雨预报产品误差进行分析。结果表明：降水概率预报对于系统性降水过程预报准确度明显高于突发性降水过程;短时暴雨预报方法的预报位置较实况偏东偏南,纬度偏差-2.1°～1.3°,经度偏差-0.4°～3.1°;强度较实况偏弱,61%本地预报方法雨强为实况的0%～90%;降水范围较实况偏小,偏小程度最多仅6个格点;强度误差占比最大,其次为范围误差,位移误差最小。预报员可基于本地短时暴雨预报方法对预报误差进行相应的调整。  相似文献   

Interaction of Freshly Precipitated Silica Gel with Aqueous Silicic Acid Solutions under Ambient and Near Neutral pH-conditions: A Detailed Analysis of Linear Rate Law     

Jiří Faimon  Martin Blecha 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2008,14(1):1-40

Interaction of freshly precipitated silica gel with aqueous solutions was studied at laboratory batch experiments under ambient and near neutral pH-conditions. The overall process showed excellent reversibility: gel growth could be considered as an opposite process to dissolution and a linear rate law could be applied to experimental data. Depending on the used rate law form, the resulting rate constants were sensitive to errors in parameters/variables such as gel surface area, equilibrium constants, Si-fluxes, and reaction quotients. The application of an Integrated Exponential Model appeared to be the best approach for dissolution data evaluation. It yielded the rate constants k _dissol ∼ (4.50 ± 0.68) × 10⁻¹² and k _growth ∼ (2.58 ± 0.39) × 10⁻⁹ mol m⁻² s⁻¹ for zero ionic strength. In contrast, a Differential Model gave best results for growth data modeling. It yielded the rate constants k _dissol ∼ (1.14 ± 0.44) × 10⁻¹¹ and k _growth ∼ (6.08 ± 2.37) × 10⁻⁹ mol m⁻² s⁻¹ for higher ionic strength (I ∼ 0.04 to 0.11 mol L⁻¹). The found silica gel solubility at zero ionic strength was somewhat lower than the generally accepted value. Based on the and standard Gibbs free energy of silica gel formation was calculated as and −850,318 ± 20 J mol⁻¹, respectively. Activation energies for silica gel dissolution and growth were determined as and respectively. An universal value for growth of any silica polymorph, is not consistent with the value for silica gel growth, which questions the hypothesis about one unique activated complex controlling the silica polymorph growth.  相似文献   

误差扣除法在云南中尺度数值模式中对气压梯度力的计算试验     

强学民  琚建华 《高原气象》2001,20(2):148-157

使用云南中尺度数值预报试验模式^[1]，引入实际地形，选用静力扣除格式、回插格式、局地等温格式、经典修正格式以及模式中原计算格式（Corby格式）等5种计算格式计算气压梯度力，对气压梯度力的误差和扣除法进行了模拟试验。比较了这5种格式在有、无误差扣除时的模拟结果之后，发现误差扣除法与上述格式结合使用时，均能够不同程度地提高预报效果，尤其是在与经典修正格式结合使用以后，预报效果进一步改善，得到了较满意的模拟效果。  相似文献   

Computation of spherical harmonic coefficients and their error estimates using least-squares collocation   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

C. C. Tscherning 《Journal of Geodesy》2001,75(1):12-18

 Equations expressing the covariances between spherical harmonic coefficients and linear functionals applied on the anomalous gravity potential, T, are derived. The functionals are the evaluation functionals, and those associated with first- and second-order derivatives of T. These equations form the basis for the prediction of spherical harmonic coefficients using least-squares collocation (LSC). The equations were implemented in the GRAVSOFT program GEOCOL. Initially, tests using EGM96 were performed using global and regional sets of geoid heights, gravity anomalies and second-order vertical gravity gradients at ground level and at altitude. The global tests confirm that coefficients may be estimated consistently using LSC while the error estimates are much too large for the lower-order coefficients. The validity of an error estimate calculated using LSC with an isotropic covariance function is based on a hypothesis that the coefficients of a specific degree all belong to the same normal distribution. However, the coefficients of lower degree do not fulfil this, and this seems to be the reason for the too-pessimistic error estimates. In order to test this the coefficients of EGM96 were perturbed, so that the pertubations for a specific degree all belonged to a normal distribution with the variance equal to the mean error variance of the coefficients. The pertubations were used to generate residual geoid heights, gravity anomalies and second-order vertical gravity gradients. These data were then used to calculate estimates of the perturbed coefficients as well as error estimates of the quantities, which now have a very good agreement with the errors computed from the simulated observed minus calculated coefficients. Tests with regionally distributed data showed that long-wavelength information is lost, but also that it seems to be recovered for specific coefficients depending on where the data are located. Received: 3 February 2000 / Accepted: 23 October 2000  相似文献   

LTD500激光跟踪测量系统原理及应用   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

李广云 《测绘工程》2001,10(4):3-8

激光跟踪测量系统是瑞士徕卡公司生产的高精度工业测量仪器，它具有测量精度高，实时快速，动态测量，便于移动等优点。在航空航天，汽车制造，电子工业，高能粒子加速器工程以及大尺寸计算等行业中，均有广泛应用，随着我国上述行业测试计算的迅速发展，这类仪器已开始大量引进，如在沈飞，西飞，上飞及一些研究所已应用于生产实践，本文主要介绍激光跟踪仪的原理，校准方法及应用情况。  相似文献   

安德拉水位计测量中水位值计算的误差分析和估算     

孙翼  王其柳 《海洋科学进展》1991,(1)

在安德拉水位计的实际应用中,除由压力测量引起的水位测量误差外,在水位数据的计算中,也存在着误差因素。本文分析了这些因素的误差分量,并粗略地估算了它们的大小;由此提出了参与水位值计算的几个主要订正参数的选值方法。  相似文献   

一种综合修正线阵声呐基阵误差的方法     

陈非凡  吴英姿 《海洋技术学报》1997,16(4):23-28

线阵声呐的基阵误差包括基元物理相位误差和相邻基元之间的间隔误差，本文提出了一种综合修正以上两种误差实用方法，利用该方法可以有效地提高线阵声呐系统的波束定位精度，并通过一个具体的实例进行了验证。  相似文献   

北京闪电综合探测网(BLNET):网络构成与初步定位结果   总被引：6，自引：5，他引：1  

王宇  郄秀书  王东方  刘明远  苏德斌  沈永海  武智君  刘冬霞  孙竹玲 《大气科学》2015,39(3):571-582

北京闪电综合探测网(Beijing Lightning NETwork, 简称BLNET)由10个观测站组成, 每个子站主要由闪电快、慢电场变化测量仪(也称快、慢天线)和闪电甚高频(VHF)辐射探测仪构成, 实现了对闪电的多频段的综合观测。本文首先详细介绍了BLNET的网络构成, 然后利用蒙特卡罗法对网络的定位误差进行了理论分析, 模拟结果表明网络内部水平定位误差小于200 m, 网络外部100 km处水平定位误差小于3 km, 最后利用Chan氏算法和Levenberg-Marquardt算法相结合的方法, 对发生在2013年7月7日的一次雷暴过程分别进行了地闪和云闪定位, 将定位结果和对应时次的雷达回波进行比较, 发现地闪和云闪都出现在大于30 dBZ的雷达回波区, 表明了探测网络和定位方法的可靠性。  相似文献   

基于Python的全息测量数据校准软件     

谭玲霞  陈卯蒸  裴鑫 《天文研究与技术》2015,(3)

微波全息测量是检测抛物面面形分布的重要手段之一,数据校准软件是全息处理软件中关键的一部分。以新疆天文台南山25 m天线改造计划为背景,在分析全息测量中引起误差的几个因素的基础上,开发了全息测量数据校准软件。该软件以Linux为开发平台,使用Python语言进行编程,其优点是:具有误差评估功能,方便用户筛选由于误差过大造成的数据不合理;标准化接口更易嵌入天线控制软件中;可视化界面既能方便用户操作,又可以直观显示运行结果。软件调试结果显示该软件运行时间在2 min以内,效果良好,具有一定的实用价值,不仅对于25 m的改造至关重要,也为未来110 m射电望远镜的技术预研创造了条件。  相似文献   

风场变形误差对冬季降雪测量及其趋势估算的影响     

孙秀宝  任国玉  任芝花  沈志超 《气候与环境研究》2013,18(2):178-186

利用71个气象站1960～2009年共50年的冬季逐日降水、风速和天气现象资料, 以及3个站降水对比观测试验数据, 对东北地区降雪测量记录的风场变形误差进行了评价和订正, 并在此基础上分析了风场变形误差对研究区降雪量变化趋势估算结果的影响。结果如下:1)东北地区冬季降雪量台站观测记录普遍被低估, 全区观测的冬季平均降雪量为15.1 mm, 而风场变形误差订正后冬季平均降雪量为22.5 mm。各站绝对误差介于1.1～19.4 mm, 平均绝对误差为7.5 mm, 各站相对误差介于11.8%～50.8%, 平均相对误差为34.1%。2)主要由于受气象台站观测环境改变导致的风速减弱现象影响, 东北地区大部分台站雨量计对降雪的捕获率有所增加, 冬季降水观测中的风场变形误差减小, 引起实测的降雪量变化趋势估算值被高估。风场变形误差订正前, 东北地区近50年的冬季降雪量变化趋势为0.4 mm·(10 a)^-1, 而风场变形误差订正后, 冬季降雪量变化趋势为0.1 mm·(10 a)^-1。3)东北南部地区台站受风场变形误差影响尤其明显, 冬季实测的降雪量变化趋势偏高更大, 订正后和订正前趋势差值为-1 mm·(10 a)^-1, 即订正前冬季降雪量变化趋势被高估程度达到了64.3%。  相似文献