不同业务预报初值形成方案的数值模拟比较   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

陈德辉  王诗文 《热带气象学报》1996,12(4):356-364

设计了一个适用于同步，双重嵌套模式的ｐ－面水平插值，双非线性正规模初值形成方案。把新方案与国家气象中心的台风路径数值预报准实时业务模式原预报初值形成方案进行了比较。所选台风个例的４８小时数值模拟结果表明，新的预报初值形成方案优于原方案。  相似文献   

Global climatic changes since the last glacial maximum: evidence from paleolimnology and paleoclimate modeling     

H. E. Wright Jr. 《Journal of Paleolimnology》1996,15(2):119-127

Recognition that Earth/Sun orbital changes are the basic cause for Quaternary climatic variations provides a context for explaining global environmental changes, many of which are preserved in the stratigraphic and geomorphic record of lakes. Paleoclimatic numerical models suggest the mechanisms. In subtropical latitudes such as North Africa the enhanced summer insolation culminating about 10 000 years ago resulted in the increased monsoonal rains that explain the widespread expansion of lakes in now-desert basins. But in the American Southwest lake expansion dates to 18 000–15 000 years ago, when storm tracks were displaced to the south by the ice sheets—themselves a product of earlier orbital changes. The dynamics in the resopnse of different components of the natural system to climatic change are recorded in the stratigraphy of lake sediments, not only by their pollen content as a manifestation of the regional vegetation but also by their microfossils and chemical composition as reflections of lake development.This is the 10th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest for these papers.  相似文献   

A crystal-chemical basis for Pb retention and fission-track annealing systematics in U-bearing minerals, with implications for geochronology   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Peter S. Dahl   《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1997,150(3-4):277-290

This study develops an empirical crystal-chemical framework for systematizing the kinetics of Pb loss and fission-track annealing in U-bearing minerals. Ionic porosity, Z (the fraction of a mineral's unit-cell volume not occupied by ions) potentially accounts for kinetic behavior by monitoring mean metal-oxygen bond length/strength. Various tests of a general kinetics-porosity relationship are presented, based upon diverse mineral data including: (1) Pb diffusion parameters; (2) measured closure temperatures (T_C) for fission-track annealing and (3) retentivities of both Pb and fission tracks, from apparent-age data. Every kinetic parameter (including T_C and mineral age for both the U/Pb and fission-track systems) is inversely correlated with Z within the sub-assemblage: zircon (Z ≈ 29%), titanite ( 34%) and apatite ( 38%). Assuming a diffusional closure model, Pb isotopic transport phenomena are described by a T_C-Z scale “calibrated” with field-based T_C data for titanite (≥ 680 ± 20°C) and apatite ( 500°C). Extrapolation of this scale yields T_C estimates for the following minerals: staurolite (T_C ≥ 1060°C, Z ≈ 25%); garnet (≥ 1010°C, 26.5%); zircon (≥900°C); monazite, xenotime, and epidote (≥ 750°C, 32%); and Ca-clinopyroxene (≥ 670 ± 30°C, 34 ± 1%, depending on composition). These empirical results imply that a (U/)Pb/Pb date for staurolite or garnet records the time of mineral growth, not post-growth isotopic closure, as also concluded in recent field studies. Because Z systematizes fission-track annealing, this recrystallization process, like volume-diffusion, must also be rate-limited by the strength of chemical bonds. The extent to which other recrystallization processes are likewise rate-limited is important to U/Pb geochronology because they potentially compete with diffusion as mechanisms for Pb-isotopic resetting in nature.  相似文献   

Integration of zircon color and zircon fission-track zonation patterns in orogenic belts: application to the Southern Alps, New Zealand   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

John I. Garver  Peter J. J. Kamp   《Tectonophysics》2002,349(1-4)

An exhumed crustal section of the Mesozoic Torlesse terrane underlies the Southern Alps collision zone in New Zealand. Since the Late Miocene, oblique horizontal shortening has formed the northeastern–southwestern trending orogen and exhumed the crustal section within it. On the eastern side, rocks are zeolite- to prehnite–pumpellyite-grade greywacke; on the western side rocks, they have the same protolith, but are greenschist to amphibolite facies of the Alpine Schist. Zircon crystals from sediments in east-flowing rivers (hinterland) have pre-orogenic fission-track ages (>80 Ma) and are dominated by pink, radiation-damaged grains (up to 60%). These zircons are derived from the upper 10 km crustal section (unreset FT color zone) that includes the Late Cenozoic zircon partial annealing zone; both fission tracks and color remain intact and unaffected by orogenesis. Many zircon crystals from sediments in west-flowing rivers (foreland) have synorogenic FT ages, and about 80% are colorless due to thermal annealing. They have been derived from rocks that originally lay in the reset FT color zone and the underlying reset FT colorless zone. The reset FT color zone occurs between 250 and 400 °C. In this zone, zircon crystals have color but reset FT ages that reflect the timing of orogenesis.  相似文献   

Thermal history of Canadian Williston basin from apatite fission-track thermochronology—implications for petroleum systems and geodynamic history     

K. G. Osadetz  B. P. Kohn  S. Feinstein  P. B. O'Sullivan   《Tectonophysics》2002,349(1-4)

Apatite fission track (AFT) thermochronology has been applied to a composite depth profile of Precambrian basement rocks underlying the Phanerozoic Canadian Williston Basin. Thermal histories derived from the AFT data record cycles of heating and cooling which follow the pattern of regional burial history, but which also indicate major temporal and geographic variations in the timing and degree of maximum Phanerozoic temperatures. These variations in the thermal history were not previously recognised from organic maturity indicators and subsidence models. Specifically, our study suggests a late Paleozoic heat flow anomaly with a geographic extent closer to that of Middle Devonian–Carboniferous Kaskaskia subsidence patterns than to that of the Williston Basin proper. This thermal anomaly has both economic and geodynamic significance. The recognition that potential Upper Cambrian–Lower Ordovician petroleum source rocks became fully mature during the late Paleozoic distinguishes that petroleum system from others that entered the main hydrocarbon generation stage in latest Cretaceous and Paleogene time. The late Paleozoic heat flow anomaly suggested from the AFT data implies a geodynamic coupling between inelastic Kaskaskia subsidence and previously inferred late Paleozoic lithospheric weakening. While the temporally varying heat flow model is preferred, the lack of independent constraints on the maximum thickness of upper Paleozoic strata precludes the outright rejection of the previous constant heat flow model. The AFT data provide important new constraints on the evolution of the epicratonic Williston Basin and its geodynamic models.  相似文献   

Geodynamic evolution of southern Costa Rica related to low-angle subduction of the Cocos Ridge: constraints from thermochronology     

K. Grfe  W. Frisch  I. M. Villa  M. Meschede 《Tectonophysics》2002,348(4):105

The Late Tertiary shallow subduction of the Cocos ridge under the Caribbean plate controlled the evolution of the Cordillera de Talamanca in southeast Costa Rica, which is a mountain range that consists mainly of granitoids formed in a volcanic arc setting. Fission track thermochronology using zircon and apatite, as well as ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar and Rb–Sr age data of amphibole and biotite in granitoid rocks constrain the thermal history of the Cordillera de Talamanca and the age of onset of subduction of the Cocos ridge. Shallow intrusion of granitoid melts resulted in fast and isobaric cooling. A weighted mean zircon fission track age (13 analyses) and Rb–Sr biotite ages of about 10 Ma suggest rapid cooling and give minimum ages for granitoid emplacement. In some cases ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar and Rb–Sr apparent ages of amphibole and biotite are younger than the zircon fission track ages, which can be attributed to partial resetting by hydrothermal alteration. Apatite fission track ages range from 4.8 to 1.7 Ma but show no correlation with the 3090-m elevation span over which they were sampled. The apatite ages seem to indicate rapid exhumation caused by tectonic and isostatic processes. The combination of the apatite fission track ages with subduction parameters of the Cocos plate such as subduction angle, plate convergence rate and distance of the Cordillera de Talamanca to the trench implies that the Cocos ridge entered the Middle America Trench between 5.5 and 3.5 Ma.  相似文献   

琼东南盆地东部构造坡折样式与层序地层发育特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

甘华军  王华  肖军  陆永潮 《高校地质学报》2008,14(1):99-105

结合地震、测井和钻井等详细分析资料,利用工作站和地震解释软件,以琼东南盆地东部新生界地层为对象,开展了构造和层序地层的分析和研究。研究结果表明,在琼东南盆地东部发育有三种构造坡折带样式:断坡带,单一坡折带以及复合坡折带,并识别出由不同层序格架控制的多种低位域的沉积地质体,包括下切谷,盆底扇,斜坡扇和低位楔,其物源主要来源于研究区北部的陆架区;琼东南东部的低位体系域的特征和分布与三种层序格架样式相互对应,这些低位域砂体可成为有利的储层。结合前人的坡折带理论,揭示构造坡折带与该区内有效储集体分布的关系,预测潜在的勘探目标。  相似文献   

基于长短时记忆神经网络的台风路径临近预报模型   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

高松  赵鹏  潘斌  李亚汝  周敏  徐江玲  钟山  史振威 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(5):8-12

It is of vital importance to reduce injuries and economic losses by accurate forecasts of typhoon tracks. A huge amount of typhoon observations have been accumulated by the meteorological department, however, they are yet to be adequately utilized. It is an effective method to employ machine learning to perform forecasts. A long short term memory(LSTM) neural network is trained based on the typhoon observations during 1949–2011 in China's Mainland, combined with big data and data mining technologies, and a forecast model based on machine learning for the prediction of typhoon tracks is developed. The results show that the employed algorithm produces desirable 6–24 h nowcasting of typhoon tracks with an improved precision.  相似文献   

A quantitative study of sediment delivery and stream pollution from different forest road types     

Gary J. Sheridan  Philip J. Noske 《水文研究》2007,21(3):387-398

The objective of this paper is to quantify, and enable the prediction of, sediment delivery and water pollution impacts from a spectrum of forest roads. Ten 100–200 m long sections of forest road were selected to incorporate a wide range of the key physical site factors that are likely to affect the rate of sediment generation. Each road section was permanently instrumented for 1 year to measure rainfall and runoff continuously. Suspended load, bedload, and traffic were integrated measurements over 2‐ to 3‐week site‐service intervals. Total annual sediment load (normalized for slope) varied about 25‐fold, from 216 mg m^?2 per millimetre of rain for a high‐quality gravel surfaced road with minimal traffic to 5373 mg m^?2 per millimetre of rain for an unsurfaced road on an erodible subsoil with moderate light‐vehicle traffic. For the seven gravel‐surfaced roads in this study, truck traffic (axles/week) explained 97% of the variation in annual sediment delivery (per unit of rainfall) from the road. Equations are proposed that allow annual sediment delivery rates to be estimated when net rainfall, road slope, road area, and truck traffic are known. Roads produce runoff rapidly and were found to deliver sediment for about the same duration as rainfall is falling, in this study varying between 5 and 10% of the time. The patterns of sediment delivery measured from the experimental roads (frequency, duration, and intensity) in this study are similar to levels that have been shown to alter the composition of in‐stream macroinvertebrate communities in small (e.g. <10 l s^?1), clean, mountain streams. However, in larger well‐mixed streams (e.g. >500 l s^?1), dilution is sufficient to prevent concentrations reaching critical levels that are likely to result in biological impacts. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Single Particle Analysis of Aerosols, Observed in the Marine Boundary Layer during the Monterey Area Ship Tracks Experiment (MAST), with Respect to Cloud Droplet Formation     

L. A. De Bock  P. E. Joos  K. J. Noone  R. A. Pockalny  R. E. Van Grieken 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2000,37(3):299-329

The chemical composition of individual particles >0.2 m sampled duringthe MAST-experiment wereanalysed by SEM-EDX, in combination with multivariatetechniques. The objective of this experiment was toidentify the mechanisms responsible for themodification of marine stratocumulus clouds byemissions from ships and in a wider sense to provideinformation on the global processes involved inatmospheric modification of cloud albedo. Aerosolswere examined under different MBL pollution levels(clean, intermediately polluted and moderatelypolluted) in five different reservoirs: backgroundbelow-cloud and above-cloud aerosol; background clouddroplet residual particles; below-cloud ship plumeaerosol and ship track cloud droplet residualparticles.In this study a relation was provided between theaerosol emitted from the ship's stack to an effect incloud. Additionally, a large fraction of the ambientaerosol was found to be composed of organic materialor other compounds, consisting of low Z-elements,associated with chlorine. Their number fraction waslargest in clean marine boundary layers, and decreasedwith increasing pollution levels. The fraction of`transformed sea salt' (Na, Cl, S), on the other hand,increased with the pollution level in the MBL. Only20% of the particles fell within the detectable rangeof the analysis.  相似文献