广西寒露风开始期短期气候预测方法研究     

覃卫坚  黄志  李耀先 《气象研究与应用》2014,35(3):11-14

利用1951-2013年广西90个气象观测站气温资料、国家气候中心74项指数和美国National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration（NOAA）的Climate Prediction Center（CPC）60项指数以及海温和陆地雪盖资料、美国国家冰雪研究中心（NSIDC）的两极海冰资料,使用相关分析方法得到广西寒露风开始期气候影响因子,利用逐步回归和神经网络方法进行寒露风开始期的预测。结果表明：寒露风开始期与前一年9-10月北极海冰面积、当年3月南极海冰面积、前一年6月欧亚雪盖、当年5月北美雪盖、北半球雪盖的相关显著。与前一年9月北半球极涡面积指数、前一年10月亚洲区极涡面积指数、前一年3月热带印度洋海温偶极子等指数相关显著。粒子群-神经网络方法预测误差低于逐步回归方法,预报能力有明显提高。  相似文献   

Weather extremes and street life in India—Implications of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for semi-quantitative impact assessment and ranking of adaptation measures     

《Global Environmental Change》2014

The potential impacts of progressing climate change are alarming. Some adverse consequences are now unavoidable and adaptation measures are increasingly needful. This poses enormous challenges for emerging megacities in the Global South, which barely manage in current weather conditions. This paper introduces Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as a new tool for structured, semi-quantitative assessments of climate change impacts and adaptation measures.Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping is used to evaluate differences in sensitivities to heatwaves and rainstorms across socio-economic groups and for the ranking of useful adaptation options, based on 188 individual interviews to the impacts of extreme weather events in Hyderabad, India. The results of this multi-stakeholder assessment indicate that rainstorms affect low-income residents more than heatwaves, while the opposite is true for medium-income respondents. The latter are also less seriously affected by extreme weather in general. Profession, though, not income determines the kind of impact that people feel most affected by. Individual characteristics like age and gender do not significantly explain differences in the data, but religion does. This is because, in Hyderabad, Muslims live in the older, less serviced and more affected parts of the city. However, semi-quantitative scenario analyses suggest that, under future climate change, many parts of the city will become increasingly exposed to the effects of extreme weather. Planned investments in urban infrastructure will be seriously challenged by climate change and preventive adaptation measures are urgently needed to at least maintain the current level of quality of life. Investments in the health infrastructure appear to be most effective in reducing the impact of heatwaves and investments in the traffic infrastructure most effective in reducing the impact of rainstorms. However, looking at heat and rain events together—which is realistic as they are both projected to increase and often occur in the same year—reveals that investments in water infrastructure and management have greatest potential to reduce impacts across all localities and on all social groups, particularly the lower-income classes. This is because first-order impacts caused by inadequate water infrastructure often give rise to second- or third-order impacts. Addressing the root cause is the most effective way to break cause-and-effect chains and prevent proliferation of negative consequences. Similar studies are suggested in other cities in order to support adaptation mainstreaming in complex urban environments. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping proved a useful, semi-quantitative tool for climate change impact and adaptation assessments.  相似文献   

基于灰色关联与模糊数学的重力式挡土墙震害评估     

梁力丹  郑达  巨能攀  李俊杰 《工程地质学报》2014,22(6):1234-1240

龙门山地区强震荷载导致大量已建边坡支挡结构严重受损,如何对震区受损挡土墙进行震害评估成为亟待解决的技术难点。本文首先通过对研究区挡土墙的震害分析,总结出其主要破坏模式包括滑移破坏、沉降破坏、倾覆破坏、墙身破坏以及越顶破坏5类。然后根据全面性、重要性以及科学性原则对影响震害评价的因子进行定性分析和分类,并结合挡墙的破坏模式,综合分析得到挡土墙安全评估的敏感性因子和一般因子。将震害范围60%作为挡墙评价的敏感性因子,而一般因子分为两级共10个指标,包括:滑移距离,沉降深度,倾斜角度,裂缝数量,裂缝长度比,开裂深度比,开裂宽度,错动距离,垮塌范围,覆盖范围。最后,采用灰色关联分析与模糊数学理论相结合的方法构建挡土墙震害评估体系,从而变事后处理为事先预防,为灾后恢复重建服务。  相似文献   

Robust geotechnical design of shield-driven tunnels     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2014

This paper presents a fuzzy set-based robust geotechnical design (RGD) methodology for the design of shield-driven tunnels. Here, uncertain geotechnical parameters required for analysis of tunnel performance (referred to herein as the structure safety and serviceability performance of tunnel cross section) are represented as fuzzy sets. Given fuzzy input parameters, the performance of a shield-driven tunnel will be uncertain, which is expressed in this study as a fuzzy factor of safety, according to the analysis of vertex method. Then, the fuzzy factor of safety for a given design is used to evaluate the failure probability and design robustness, which are, in turn, employed in the proposed RGD framework. Note that a design is considered robust if the performance of the shield-driven tunnel is insensitive to the variation of its uncertain geotechnical parameters. Within the RGD framework, each candidate design in the design space is analyzed for its safety state (in terms of failure probability), design robustness, and cost. The goal of the RGD of a shield-driven tunnel is to bring the safety state to an acceptable level, while maximizing the robustness and cost efficiency simultaneously. To this end, a multi-objective optimization is performed and a Pareto front is obtained, which provides a trade-off that may be used to select the most preferred design. Through an illustrative case, the effectiveness and significance of this new robust design methodology is demonstrated.  相似文献   

包头市地下水质量评价     

邢高哲  孙恺 《地下水》2015,(2)

地下水质量评价为保护和开发地下水资源,防止和控制地下水污染,保障人民身体健康提供科学依据。结合相关地下水调查资料采用单指标评价、内梅罗指数和模糊综合评价三种方法,对包头市地下水水质分别进行评价,通过对评价结果综合分析认为:模糊综合评价结果更符合区域地下水总体特征,包头市潜水Ⅳ类、Ⅴ类占到取样点总数的36%,质量整体较差;承压水Ⅰ—Ⅲ类遍及包头市全区,质量整体较好。  相似文献   

组合数学在计算机科学中的应用     

陈家  杨光崇 《成都信息工程学院学报》2006,21(Z1):94-97

介绍了组合数学的概念、起源与研究的主要内容,分析了组合数学的特点,阐述了组合数学与计算机软件的联系,并着重通过两个例子说明了Ramsey数在计算机科学的信息检索、分组交换网设计分支中的重要应用.  相似文献   

Estimation of parameters in petrologic materials balance equations     

N. H. Gray 《Mathematical Geology》1973,5(3):225-236

A rigorous treatment of the least-squares estimation of the parameters in petrologic materials balance equations is developed to take into account the uncertainties inherent in the chemical analyses. The choice of the optimal estimation procedure for a particular problem is dependent upon the extent of the petrogenetic understanding of the exact nature of the materials balance involved. Some of the complications entailed in obtaining least-squares estimates are illustrated by the examples of magmatic differentiation and metamorphic reactions.  相似文献   

A piecewise exponential model for seismic well-logging data     

D. L. Jupp  Ian C. F. Stewart 《Mathematical Geology》1974,6(1):33-45

Conventional methods of analyzing sonic log data do not always yield accurate information on each velocity segment of a well. It is shown here that the velocity-depth parameters and the sections of approximately constant velocity may be more precisely defined by using an exponential spline to model the data.  相似文献   

基于模糊综合评判的机械零件材料选择方法     

刘峰 《广东海洋大学学报》2001,21(2):63-65

针对在选择机械零件材料时采用传统方法所具有的主观性缺陷,本文结合设计实例,运用模糊数学理论,建立了零件材料选择的模糊综合评判的数学模型,能从多种可用材料中较客观、合理地确定出最适用的一种材料,从而提高了设计质量.  相似文献   

General equations for volume and surface area of a logarithmically coiled shell     

David M. Raup  Richard R. Graus 《Mathematical Geology》1972,4(4):307-316

The equations of Moseley for the volume and surface area of a coiled shell have been rewritten in their most general forms. The general volume equation has been tested with 15 gastropods and found to give satisfactory results wherever there are no significant ontogenetic changes in the shell geometry. The equations provide a means for calculating the carbonate efficiency of a coiled shell. With this parameter analyzed into its component parts, it has been possible to understand the relationships between aspects of shell calcification and environmental factors that affect calcium carbonate availability. Preliminary studies indicate that it also may be possible to discriminate morphologically between terrestrial and aquatic gastropods, the various gastropod modes of life, and higher taxonomic categories. These equations offer possibilities for other studies concerned with the ecology, paleoecology, and evolution of coiled shells.  相似文献