Role of Antarctic ice mass balance in present-day sea-level change     

C.K. Shum  Chung-yen Kuo  Jun-yi Guo 《Polar Science》2008,2(2):149-161

The Antarctic ice sheet is arguably the most critical in terms of future sea-level rise, primarily because it contains 70% of the world's fresh water. While there exists evidence of accelerated ice-sheet ablation during the past decade, the possibility that the ice sheets contributed little to 20th century sea-level rise could result in Antarctica becoming the largest contributor to sea-level rise during the 21st century. Here we review the findings of studies published following the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) study, focusing on the role of Antarctica in present-day (1992–2006) sea-level rise. We show that the choice of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model significantly affects GRACE-estimated Antarctic mass loss, adding 0.25–0.45 mm/yr to the estimate of sea-level rise. The current estimate of Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise has a wide range: from −0.12 to +0.52 mm/yr. The discrepancy between observed sea-level trend of 1.8 mm/yr and those estimated from various geophysical sources (2.10 ± 0.99 mm/yr) is 0.30 mm/yr. The role of Antarctica in sea-level rise might be better constrained by lengthening satellite observations, using long-term GPS data to discriminate subglacial vertical motion from ice mass balance, and detecting the sea-level signal due to elastic loading from the melting ice-sheets.  相似文献   

The massive black hole at the galactic center     

A. Eckart  R. Genzel 《Journal of Astrophysics and Astronomy》1999,20(3-4):187-196

At the dynamic center of the Milky Way high spatial resolution, near-infrared imaging and spectroscopy have made it possible in the last few years to measure stellar velocities down to separations of less than five light days from the compact radio source SgrA* (in the constellation Sagittarius). These measurements make a compelling case for the presence of a compact, central dark mass of 2.6 × 10⁶ solar masses. Simple physical considerations show that this dark mass cannot consist of a stable cluster of stars, stellar remnants, substellar condensations or a degenerate gas of elementary particles. Energy equipartition requires that at least 105 solar masses must be associated with SgrA* itself and is enclosed within less than 8 light minutes (equivalent to 15 Schwarzschild radii of a million solar mass black hole). If one accepts these arguments it is hard to escape the conclusions that there must be a massive black hole at the core of the Milky Way.  相似文献   

Statistical Investigation on Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Wind Variation Based on ACE Observations     

GUO Xiao-cheng  JIANG Wence  LI Hui 《Chinese Astronomy and Astrophysics》2021,45(2):147-161

Based on the Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and plasma observations from ACE spacecraft, the relation between GCR counts and solar wind parameters during the two periods of solar minimums (the years of 2007.0-2009.0 and 2016.5-2019.0) was analyzed by means of the Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) method. The results indicate that GCRs are strongly modulated by Co-rotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) in solar wind, the Stream Interfaces (SIs) sandwiched between fast and slow solar wind are closely related with the depression of GCR counts. The mechanism of the GCR variation was investigated through the empirical diffusion coefficients. The so-called “snow-plough” effect of GCR variation prior to the SI crossing appears during the first period, then the GCR counts decrease after the crossing, which corresponds to the sudden drop of diffusion coefficient at the SI. However, this effect is not observed for the second period, the decrease of GCR counts may be caused by the enhancement of the diffusion coefficient after the SI crossing. Moreover, Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) correlates with GCR counts well, the GCRs drift along the current sheet, and then accumulate to a pileup structure. The interplay between drift and diffusion determines the GCR distribution and variation at a heliocentric distance of 1 AU.  相似文献   

Programme of the Galactic meridian: Star counts and galactic models. 1. Distributions of stellar magnitudes and colours     

V. Andruk  N. Kharchenko  E. Schilbach  R.-D. Scholz 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1995,316(6):387-400

A comparison of observed stellar distributions with a three-component model of the Galaxy is presented. The analysis is based on photometric and photoelectric data obtained along the main Galactic meridian and in two fields near the North Galactic pole (programme MEGA). The assumed model considers the Galaxy as composed of the disk (main sequence and disk red giants), the thick disk and spheroid populations. To model the observed colour distribution, we distinguish main sequence stars and disk red giants as the disk subsystem; white dwarfs, subdwarfs and intermediate giants as the thick disk subsystem; extreme subdwarfs, spheroid giants and horizontal branch stars as the spheroid subsystem. A statistical relation between the apparent and absolute magnitudes of stars which make the maximum contribution to the star counts for a given disk subsystem is derived. In order to achieve the best agreement between the model and observations, we fit the values of the ‘dip’ (aw) of the disk luminosity function, the correction to the absolute magnitude of disk red giants (ΔM_V^RG) and the expression for interstellar extinction. As the main result, we obtained aw = 0.6 (logarithmic scale) and ΔM_V^RG = 0.5 mag; the interstellar extinction has to be taken into account by the modified Sandage law.  相似文献   

Blazar中央黑洞的变化特征和质量估计     

樊军辉 《天文学进展》2001,19(2):257-266

利用blazar的长期的光学和红外测光数据分析了其变化特性,并利用Jurkevich技术和分立相关函数(DCF)法在光学数据中寻找光变曲线中的周期性.发现了1.5至19yr范围的周期.利用短时间尺度来估计中央黑洞的质量,发现γ射线噪blazar的中心黑洞质量范围为(3.8～130)×10  相似文献   

从灾害链角度讨论2005年九江5.7级地震的预测     

郭增建  韩延本  郭安宁 《地震》2006,26(4):129-132

从月亮赤纬最大年和台风地震灾害链讨论了2005年九江5.7级地震的预测问题。 这是灾害链预测地震的指标之一。 月亮赤纬最大年垂向引潮力对九江地区的地震有触发作用。 台风向内陆深入并奔向九江地区, 这可能是震前大范围地下放出热气形成的低压对台风的吸引。 上述两因素的重合对预测地震的地区是有用的, 考虑到九江地区和附近麻城地区曾发生过5级和6级地震,这对预测九江地区地震的震级是个参考。  相似文献   

Predicted star counts and mean parallaxes down to the 23rd magnitude     

N. Kharchenko  S. Rybka  A. Yatsenko  E. Schilbach 《Astronomische Nachrichten》1997,318(3):163-171

Star counts and mean parallaxes as a function of B, V, R magnitudes down to 23 are presented. The data were computed by the use of two fundamental equations of stellar statistics. The assumed model considers the Galaxy as a symmetrical system with respect to its rotation axis and to its equatorial plane and as composed of the thin disk (main sequence and red giants), the thick disk and spheroid populations. Numbers of stars and mean parallaxes were derived in bins of galactic longitude and latitude of 30° and 10°, respectively. For the computation of the mean parallaxes depending on Galactic coordinates and magnitudes, series of products of Hermite and Legendre polynomials and of Fourier terms were used. The results of this paper may help in the planning of future survey missions and in the design of new telescopes. In addition, mean parallaxes can be used to derive corrections to absolute parallaxes and proper motions for any position in the sky.  相似文献   

2017年中国近海海表温度特征     

宋春阳  姜华  张守文  陈幸荣  王辉 《海洋预报》2019,36(1):1-9

通过对OISST资料1982—2017年中国近海海表面温度(SST)分析,发现2017年中国渤、黄、东海海表温度较常年偏高0～1.5℃,南海海表温度接近常年。2017年渤海海表温度是近36 a来最热的一年,达到14.4℃,黄海第二以及东海第三热的年份,整个中国近海海表温度的平均是历史第二高的年份。渤、黄、东海海表温度1—8月份达到或接近极端高温情况,之后海表温度降低并达到常年同期以下。对中国近海不同海区海表温度和陆地气温相关分析表明:不同海区受陆地气温影响区域不同,同时海表温度与陆地相关区域随着季节而变化。从2017年平流输运、净热通量、热含量和陆地大气温度影响等方面来看,造成渤、黄、东海海表温度偏高的主要原因是黑潮流速增强导致平流热输送增加,0～700 m热含量增加以及我国陆地区域气温的异常偏高,净热通量对其海表温度升高起抑制作用。  相似文献   

The role of the Galactic Halo and the Single Source in the formation of the cosmic ray anisotropy     

《Astroparticle Physics》2015

The existence of the cosmic ray Halo in our Galaxy has been discussed for more than half a century. If it is real it could help to explain some puzzling features of the cosmic ray flux: its small radial gradient, nearly perfect isotropy and the low level of the fine structure in the energy spectra of the various particles. All these features could be understood if: (a) the Halo has a big size (b) cosmic rays in the Halo have a uniform spatial or radial distribution and (c) the cosmic ray density in the Halo is comparable or even higher than that in the Galactic Disk. The main topic of the paper concerns the present status of the anisotropy and a model for its formation. In our model the extremely small amplitude of the dipole anisotropy is due to the dilution of the anisotropy in the Disk by the dominating isotropic cosmic rays from the Halo. Some minor deviations from complete isotropy in the sub-PeV and PeV energy regions point out to the possible contribution of the Single Source with the phase of its first harmonic opposite to the phase produced by the Disk.  相似文献   

Directivity function of muon detector     

《Astroparticle Physics》2015

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