山东2009年10月降水气候背景及前期海温与大气环流特征     

胡桂芳  高理 《气象科技》2010,38(Z1):24-28

利用1951—2009年北半球500hPa高度、北太平洋海温、环流特征量、降水等资料,采用相关分析、合成分析、经验函数正交分解(EOF)、子波分析等多种统计技术,对影响山东2009年10月降水趋势的各种因素进行分析和研究。结果表明:山东10月降水大致存在3种降水分布型;在不同时间尺度的气候背景上,2009年10月山东基本处于一个少雨或由少雨向多雨转换的气候阶段;2009年春季加利福尼亚冷流的减弱,2009年6月开始的厄尔尼诺事件及6月起西太平洋副高持续的偏强、偏西、正常或偏南状态,各种指标均指示山东10月降水偏少的可能性大,预测与实况基本吻合。  相似文献   

武汉市10个主要极端天气气候指数变化趋势分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

陈正洪  向华  高荣 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(1):22-28

根据武汉市1951—2007年逐日气温、降水量计算分析了10个极端天气气候指数的变化特征。结果表明:1)4个气温指数中,年及四季高、低温阈值均为上升趋势,并造成最长热浪天数的延长和霜冻日数的减少;低温阈值升速明显快于高温阈值,高温阈值仅在春季变化显著,最长热浪天数仅在冬季变化显著;低温阈值则为极显著上升趋势,尤其是年和冬季,造成"热春"、"暖冬"频繁;暖夜、闷热、傍晚至夜间的强对流等显著增多,暖日、高温热浪增加,霜冻日大幅减少。2)6个极端降水指数以增趋势为主,其中强降水阈值、比例、日数以及最大5日降水量在冬季增趋势最明显,仅夏季强降水阈值、比例略有减小,冬季日降水强度的增大趋势、夏季持续干期的缩短趋势显著性水平分别可达0.1、0.01。3)一些气温指数在1980—1990年代发生突变,而降水指数未现突变。  相似文献   

青藏高原积雪日数的气温敏感度分析   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

马丽娟  秦大河  卞林根  效存德  罗勇 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(1):1-07

根据青藏高原气象台站观测积雪日数和均一化气温数据,对高原1951—2004年积雪日数对气温的敏感度进行了量化分析。研究表明,无论是极值敏感度还是当前气候下的敏感度,空间上都呈现出高原四周积雪较中部对气温的敏感程度高的情况。各台站积雪日数对气温最敏感时的临界气温与海拔有着极好的反相关关系,而极值敏感度与海拔虽然也有一定的反相关,但相关程度远不如前者高。在当前气候状态下,有相当一部分台站的平均气温还未达到临界值,这些台站在秋、冬、春、夏季分别占总台站数的36%、39%、47%和11%。未来气候继续变暖背景下,这部分台站积雪日数对气温的敏感度会进一步加大,即积雪对气温的升高会更加敏感。  相似文献   

近48a台北市气温的小波分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

秦丽  张立凤  骆凯 《气象与环境科学》2010,33(2):59-62

利用Morlet小波分析了1961—2008年台北市年平均气温序列的小波变化特征,揭示了气温变化的多时间尺度结构,结果表明:台北市年平均气温存在多时间尺度的周期变化特征,有3个明显的特征时间尺度,分别是4 a、6-8 a和14-16 a;除14-16 a的时间尺度在整个研究时段都很明显外,其他尺度的周期阶段性都较强;以14-16 a的特征时间尺度为主周期;台北市的气温变化还表现出突变的特点;近48 a来,台北市年平均气温的气候倾向率为0.3℃/10 a,气温升高的趋势十分明显;未来2年气温在总趋势上升的前提下将处在一个偏冷期。  相似文献   

黑河中游荒漠绿洲农业适应气候变化技术研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

赵文智  杨荣 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(3):204-209

以我国第二大内陆河流域——黑河流域的中游荒漠绿洲为例,基于长期定位试验成果,研究了绿洲农业适应气候变化的技术及其潜力。结果表明,在田间水平上,垄沟灌溉种植、主栽作物与伴生植物混播种植、优化水肥管理、建立枣粮复合系统是绿洲农业适应气候变化的有效技术;在绿洲水平上,调整农业种植结构、加大农田林网规格和减少农田林网的灌溉次数、降低防风固沙体系中高耗水树种——杨树的比例等技术是应对气候变化的重要途径。综合评价结果表明,在黑河中游绿洲,通过推广上述技术,在不降低绿洲农业产值和不影响绿洲生态系统稳定性的前提下,初步估算每年可节水2.96×108m3,抵消了气温上升大约1℃所带来的蒸散发消耗量。  相似文献   

气候变暖条件下水文循环变化检测与归因研究的几点认识     

刘春蓁  夏军 《气候变化研究进展》2010,6(5):313-318

气候变化检测与归因的实践指南(GPGP)综合了4种检测归因方法,它囊括了目前研究这一因果链采用的不同途径。自1990年政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第一次评估报告以来,气候变化的检测与归因从气温升高和其他系统或变量变化趋势的研究开始,经历了从全球、半球、海洋与陆地、七大洲乃至区域尺度的细化进程。人为气候变化的指纹检测与归因方法已普遍用于全球大尺度水文循环要素——纬度带平均降水、强降水、径流、比湿、水汽含量等时空型态变化的研究,个别地也应用到流域尺度,如以冰雪融水补给为主的河流的天然流量、积雪和最低温度变化的研究。对于以降水为主,且受人类活动干扰较大的流域,观测的水文循环要素变化的检测与归因,大多数聚焦于观测的气候要素及非气候变量对其的影响,而不回答变化是自然的还是人为强迫引起的。这种方法要求高质量长系列的观测数据、先进的统计检验技术以及物理基础好的水文模型。对于水文循环要素对气候变化敏感的流域,若观测数据满足要求,则采用正规的检测与归因方法或最优指纹法识别外强迫及驱动因子的影响研究,将具有重要科学意义和发展前景。  相似文献   

Variations of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios          下载免费PDF全文

MA Qian  XIE Zheng-Hui  ZHAO Lin-Na 《大气和海洋科学快报》2010,3(6):293-298

In this study, the water balance-based Precipitation-Evapotranspiration-Runoff (PER) method combined with the land surface model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) was used to estimate the spatiotemporal variations of terrestrial water storage (TWS) for two periods, 1982–2005 (baseline) and 2071–2100, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2 in the Yangtze River basin. The results show that the estimated TWS during the baseline period and under the two future climate scenarios have similar seasonal amplitudes of 60–70 mm. The higher values of TWS appear in June during the baseline period and under the B2 scenario, whereas the TWS under A2 shows two peaks in response to the related precipitation pattern. It also shows that the TWS is recharged from February to June during the baseline period, but it is replenished from March to June under the A2 and B2 scenarios. An analysis of the standard derivation of seasonal and interannual TWS time series under the three scenarios demonstrates that the seasonal TWS of the southeastern part of the Yangtze River basin varies remarkably and that the southeastern and central parts of the basin have higher variations in interannual TWS. With respect to the first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), the inverse-phase change in seasonal TWS mainly appears across the Guizhou-Sichuan-Shaanxi belt, and the entire basin generally represents a synchronous change in interannual TWS. As a whole, the TWS under A2 presents a larger seasonal variation whereas that under B2 displays a greater interannual variation. These results imply that climate change could trigger severe disasters in the southeastern and central parts of the basin.  相似文献   

Summertime atmospheric teleconnection pattern associated with a warming over the eastern Tibetan Plateau     

朱伟军 《大气科学进展》2009,26(3):413-422

By using a surface air temperature index (SATI) averaged over the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), investigation is conducted on the short-term climate variation associated with the interannual air warming (or cooling) over the TP in each summer month. Evidence suggests that the SATI is associated with a consistent teleconnection pattern extending from the TP to central-western Asia and southeastern Europe. Associated rainfall changes include, for a warming case, a drought in northern India in May and June, and a stronger mei-yu front in June. The latter is due to an intensified upper-level northeasterly in eastern China and a wetter and warmer condition over the eastern TP. In the East Asian regions, the time-space distributions of the correlation patterns between SATI and rainfall are more complex and exhibit large differences from month to month. Some studies have revealed a close relationship between the anomalous heating over the TP and the rainfall anomaly along the Yangtze River valley appearing in the summer on a seasonal mean time-scale, whereas in the present study, this relationship only appears in June and the signal's significance becomes weaker after the long-term trend in the data was excluded. Close correlations between SATI and the convection activity and SST also occur in the western Pacific in July and August: A zonally-elongated warm tone in the SST in the northwestern Pacific seems to be a passive response of the associated circulation related to a warm SATI. The SATI-associated teleconnection pattern provides a scenario consistently linking the broad summer rainfall anomalies in Europe, central-western Asia, India, and East Asia.  相似文献   

An overview of dry-wet climate variability among monsoon-westerly regions and the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone in China   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

钱维宏  丁婷  胡豪然  林祥  秦爱民 《大气科学进展》2009,26(4):630-641

Climate in mainland China can be divided into the monsoon region in the southeast and the westerly region in the northwest as well as the intercross zone, i.e., the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone that is oriented from Southwest China to the upper Yellow River, North China, and Northeast China. In the three regions, dry-wet climate changes are directly linked to the interaction of the southerly monsoon flow on the east side of the Tibetan Plateau and the westerly flow on the north side of the Plateau from the inter-annual to inter-decadal timescales. Some basic features of climate variability in the three regions for the last half century and the historical hundreds of years are reviewed in this paper. In the last half century, an increasing trend of summer precipitation associated with the enhancing westerly flow is found in the westerly region from Xinjiang to northern parts of North China and Northeast China. On the other hand, an increasing trend of summer precipitation along the Yangtze River and a decreasing trend of summer precipitation along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone are associated with the weakening monsoon flow in East Asia. Historical documents are widely distributed in the monsoon region for hundreds of years and natural climate proxies are constructed in the non-monsoon region, while two types of climate proxies can be commonly found over the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone. In the monsoon region, dry-wet variation centers are altered among North China, the lower Yangtze River, and South China from one century to another. Dry or wet anomalies are firstly observed along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone and shifted southward or southeastward to the Yangtze River valley and South China in about a 70-year timescale. Severe drought events are experienced along the monsoon northernmost marginal active zone during the last 5 centuries. Inter-decadal dry-wet variations are depicted by natural proxies for the last 4--5 centuries in several areas over the non-monsoon region. Some questions, such as the impact of global warming on dry-wet regime changes in China, complex interactions between the monsoon and westerly flows in Northeast China, and the integrated multi-proxy analysis throughout all of China, are proposed.  相似文献   

两种不同减排情景下21世纪气候变化的数值模拟   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3  

辛晓歌  吴统文  王在志 《气象学报》2009,67(6):935-946

利用国家气候中心最新发展的气候系统模式BCC-CSM1.0模拟了相对于B1排放情景,两种不同减排情景(De90和De07,表示按照B1情景排放到2012年,之后线性递减,至2050年时CO_2排放水平分别达到1990和2007年排放水平一半的情景)对全球和中国区域气候变化的影响.结果表明:两种减排情景下模式模拟的全球平均地表气温在21世纪40年代以后明显低于Bl情景,比减排情景浓度低于B1的时间延迟了20年左右;尽管De90减排情景在2050年所达到的稳定排放水平低于De07情景,但De90情景下的全球增温在2070年以后才一致低于De07情景,这种滞后町能与耦合系统(主要足海洋)的惯性有关;至21世纪末,De90和De07情景下的全球增温幅度分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.2℃;从全球分布来看,B1情景下21世纪后30年的增温幅度在北半球高纬度和极地地区最大,减排情景能够显著减少这些地区的增温幅度,减排程度越大,则减少越多;在中国区域,B1情景下21世纪末平均增温比全球平均高约1.2℃,减排情景De90和De07分别比B1情景降低了0.4和0.3℃,中国北方地区增温幅度高于南方及沿海地区,减排情景能够显著减小中国西部地区的增温幅度;B1情景下21世纪后30年伞球增温在冬季最高,De90和De07情景分别能够降低各个季节全球升温幅度的17%和10%左右.  相似文献