地缘政治风险研究进展与展望     

熊琛然  王礼茂  屈秋实  向宁  王博 《地理科学进展》2020,39(4):695-706

地缘政治风险是影响全球和区域和平、稳定与发展的5大风险之一。如何识别、评估、预测和管理地缘政治风险成为国内外共同关注的问题。国内外学者对地缘政治风险这一术语的定义还不统一。当前地缘政治风险研究,在致险因素分析、风险影响刻画、风险量化与制图等领域都有一些新进展。针对地缘政治风险致险因子的时空差异性和多变性、各致险因子相互影响与反馈机制的复杂性以及地缘政治风险的突发性和不确定性,对致险因素的精准识别,地缘政治风险形成的机理,地缘政治风险监测与模拟等研究成为核心和前沿问题。中国未来地缘政治风险和重要研究方向包括：周边地区地缘政治风险研究;地缘政治风险的定量化与模拟研究;跨学科、大数据、多终端的地缘政治风险集成计算方法与预警服务平台建设;凝炼科学问题,提升对现实地缘政治问题的解释能力。  相似文献   

A multi-level perspective on climate risks and drivers of entrepreneurial robustness – Findings from sectoral comparison in alpine Austria     

《Global Environmental Change》2017

Recent works on organizational adaptation to climate change have repeatedly stressed that – despite concerns about large-scale impacts of climate change on supply chain networks – studies on climate change adaptation in manufacturing industries are still surprisingly scarce. The following study develops a systemic analytical framework based on which climate risks for manufacturing industries are reviewed and drivers (defined as supportive factors) of entrepreneurial robustness are examined. The analysis builds upon a case study in the alpine Austrian state of Tyrol where an intense regional rise of average temperatures occurs, going along with increased risks of natural mountain hazards and exposed settlement structures. In this climate-sensitive setting the authors conducted a survey on risk perceptions among 102 managers from manufacturing firms. Based on a comparison of the sectors metal and engineering, timber products, and construction, the authors argue that drivers of entrepreneurial robustness can be subsumed under five major strategic principles: (a) the deployment of slack resources, (b) vertical supply chain integration, (c) manufacturing flexibility, (d) material efficiency, and (e) technological risk prevention. Departing from the empirical results, the authors argue that across these principles the development of drivers depends on an interplay of structural prerequisites and human decisions on the levels of the focal firm, the supply chain network, and the political, economic, and geographic environment. In this sense, the authors conceptualize different forms of contingencies – thus effects influencing the development of drivers – within an ontology which may support further system-oriented analysis of climate change adaptation in industry.  相似文献   

Mitigating Risks From Fracking-Related Earthquakes: Assessing State Regulatory Decisions     

Charles Davis  Jonathan M. Fisk 《社会与自然资源》2017,30(8):1009-1025

Public concern about earthquakes linked to wastewater injection from fracking operations is rising. However, few have examined how “induced seismicity” is acted upon by state officials. For some, an incremental response to smaller quakes can be viewed as an acceptable risk policy orientation because of the sizeable economic benefits that accompany drilling activities while others prefer risk mitigation policies (such as the use of “threshold policies”) as a better way to address quake-related problems. To account for state response to induced seismicity impacts, we examine three factors: the emergence of quakes as focusing events, the economic importance of oil and gas to state jobs and revenue, and selected characteristics of earthquakes as a policy issue, i.e., complexity and categorical precedence. Using information drawn from documentary sources, we consider which factors are most helpful in accounting for agency decisions aimed at reducing seismic risks linked to nearby injection wells.  相似文献   

辽宁太阳紫外线辐射特征及强度预报          下载免费PDF全文

张云海  杨洪斌  龚强 《气象与环境学报》2006,22(1):34-37

利用紫外线观测仪器对辽宁4个地区紫外线辐射强度进行观测,研究了辽宁地区紫外线辐射强度的变化特征;分析了影响到达地面紫外线辐射强度的因子,结合MM5数值模式建立了统计预测模型,建立了紫外线辐射强度分级标准和对人体健康影响的对应关系。结果表明:辽宁地区的紫外线辐射强度,总体上是西、北部较东、南部稍强,但相差不大;紫外线辐射强度具有明显的季节变化,夏季最大、冬季最小。每年5～9月紫外线强度维持在一个较高的水平,日最大值出现在每日的11～14时。夏季紫外线对人体的影响最大,冬季基本无影响。云量的变化对紫外线强度的影响较大。紫外线辐射强度预报模型的预测结果较为理想。  相似文献   

State of Bioremediation in Bangladesh: Current Concept and Implementation Compared to Global Approaches     

《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2017,45(1)

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Physico-chemical,bacteriological and health hazard effect analysis of the water in Taladanda Canal,Paradip area,Odisha, India          下载免费PDF全文

Rabiranjan Prusty  Trinath Biswal 《地下水科学与工程》2020,8(4):338-348

The physico-chemical and bacteriological parameters of the water in Taladanda canal and associated water-borne diseases,from which the dwellers have suffered,were studied,by using statistical method. Overuse and the addition of the wastes with sources from urbane industrial sectors,as well as the decrease in water level have caused the canal water quality declined drastically and subsequently led to extensive eutrophication and bacterial contamination. According to the water sample analytical results,the water is lightly acidic with the pH value of 4.5~6.7. The measured indexes,such as total dissolved solid (TDS),electrical conductivity (EC),total suspended solid (TSS),Mn,Zn,Al,Fe,Cu,Cr,and Hg etc,mostly have very high concentrations which are higher than permissible limit,indicating that the canal water is completely unsuitable for human consumption. Furthermore,the biological analysis shows that the total coliform (TC) is in the range of 45.9~30.2 in per 100 mL water in April,30.5~25.3/100 mL in July and 52.9~35.4/100 mL in December,respectively. Similarly,fecal coliform (FC) ranges from 12.8 to 10.1,10.5~7.5 and 13.1~6.4 per 100 mL water in the months of April,July and December respectively. As a result,people who use the water have suffered from different water-borne diseases. On the basis of disease data derived from hospital observations in a period of three years,there had been 4 284 people affected by different water-borne diseases from 2016 to 2018.  相似文献   

新疆库尔勒市道路积尘重金属污染及健康风险评价          下载免费PDF全文

阿地拉&#;艾来提  麦麦提吐尔逊&#;艾则孜  靳万贵  姑力巴努&#;艾尼  艾尼瓦尔&#;买买提  阿里木江&#;卡斯木 《中国地质》2020,47(6):1915-1925

为探究绿洲城市道路积尘重金属污染风险,在新疆库尔勒市采集54个代表性道路积尘样品,分析其中Hg、Cd、As、Pb、Cr和Cu等6种元素含量,基于GIS技术与地学统计法,采用污染负荷指数法和US EPA健康风险评价模型,对道路积尘中重金属污染及潜在健康风险进行评价。结果表明：库尔勒市道路积尘中Hg、Cd、As、Pb和Cu等元素含量的平均值均小于土壤环境质量—建设用地土壤污染风险管控标准（GB 36600—2018）中的筛选值,但Cr元素含量平均值为相应筛选值的9.90倍。污染评价结果表明,研究区道路积尘中Cr呈现重度污染,Hg、Cd、As、Pb和Cu呈无污染。道路积尘中重金属元素的污染负荷指数介于0.0142~0.0522,平均值为0.0266,处于无污染水平。从道路积尘重金属污染空间分布格局来看,库尔勒市东北部和北部区域出现污染高值区。健康风险评估结果表明,经手-口摄入途径是库尔勒市道路积尘重金属日均暴露量及健康风险的主要途径,儿童受到的健康风险高于成人。库尔勒市道路积尘中Hg、Cd、As、Pb、Cr与Cu等元素的非致癌风险及致癌风险处于安全范围内,As对非致癌风险的贡献最大,Cr对致癌风险的贡献最大。  相似文献   

章丘区北部土壤重金属地球化学特征及潜在生态风险          下载免费PDF全文

刘华峰 《山东国土资源》2020,36(9)

以山东省济南市章丘区北部表层土壤中As等8种重金属元素为研究对象,利用多元统计进行重金属来源分析,采用污染负荷指数法及潜在生态危害指数法进行污染评价,结果表明:研究区表层土壤重金属元素含量低于济南市土壤背景值,Cd和Hg元素含量为强度变异,在表层土壤产生一定的富集;不同土地利用类型下重金属元素含量具有差异性。土壤中Cr,Cu,Ni和Zn来源于土壤母质,Cd和Pb元素来源于人类活动,As元素来源复杂。土壤综合污染以轻度污染为主,重金属元素污染程度大小为AsNiPbZnCrCuCdHg。综合潜在生态风险以轻微和中度为主,潜在生态风险强弱程度为HgCdAsCuPbNiCrZn,建议防范Hg和Cd元素污染及生态风险。  相似文献   

Ethical challenges to medical assistance at sea     

《Marine Policy》2017

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What is responsible for increasing flood risks? The case of Gangwon Province,Korea   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

Heejun Chang  Jon Franczyk  Changhwan Kim 《Natural Hazards》2009,48(3):339-354

We examined the anthropogenic and natural causes of flood risks in six representative cities in the Gangwon Province of Korea. Flood damage per capita is mostly explained by cumulative upper 5% summer precipitation amount and the year. The increasing flood damage is also associated with deforestation in upstream areas and intensive land use in lowlands. Human encroachment on floodplains made these urban communities more vulnerable to floods. Without changes in the current flood management systems of these cities, their vulnerability to flood risks will remain and may even increase under changing climate conditions.  相似文献