Assessment of the Decadal Prediction Skill on Global Land Summer Monsoon Precipitation in the Coupled Models of ENSEMBLES     

Zhang Lixia  Zhang Wenxia  Zhou Tianjun  Wu Bo 《地球科学进展》2017,32(4):409-419

Global monsoon precipitation plays a crucial role in the local social economy and global large-scale circulation and energy cycle. Using the decadal prediction output for 1960-2015 from ENSEMBLES Stream 2, the decadal hindcast skill of climate models on global land monsoon precipitation and the potential source of predictability were examined in this paper. It is found that the decadal variation of global and southern hemispheric land monsoon precipitation is not well hindcasted by ENSEMBLES. However, the Northern Hemispheric land Summer Monsoon (NHSM) precipitation in hindcast is well predicted, including the observed downward trend from 1960 to the late 1970s and upward trend since the 1990s. The main deficiency is that the minimum NHSM precipitation occured in mid-1970s, which is 10-year earlier than the observation, leading to poor prediction of NHSM precipitation from the mid-1980s to early 1990s. Mega-ENSO and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) are the two main factored that modulate the decadal variation of NHSM precipitation. The result shows that the relationships of NHSM precipitation with mega-ENSO and AMO in ENSENBLES are higher than the observation. The climate models well predicted the increase from 1960 to the late 1970s and decrease trend since the 1990s of mega-ENSO and AMO. It is the primary source of the prediction skill on NHSM changes during the two periods. Although AMO is well predicted by ENSEMBLES (highest correlation coefficient with observation is 0.85), the prediction skill of mega-ENSO is limited, leading to poor performance in predicting NHSM precipitation from the mid-1980s to early 1990s. Thus, improving the prediction of mega-ENSO can be seen as one important method of better decadal prediction of NHSM precipitation.  相似文献   

Clear water scour around a finite array of cylinders     

《Applied Ocean Research》2017

This experimental study presents clear-water scour and deposition patterns around hexagonal arrays of circular cylinders in steady flow conditions. Understanding the scour processes around such configurations could facilitate the design of several hydraulic and marine engineering structures, such as bridge piers and piles. The flow alteration caused by the examined porous obstacles depends on the solid volume fraction of the obstacles and on the angle of attack of the incoming flow, due to the limited number of cylinders constituting the array. Flume experiments with erodible bed were carried out for four array densities (solid volume fractions: 0.14, 0.20, 0.32 and 0.56) under three different orientations (regular, angled and staggered configurations). The scour/deposition characteristics were obtained by means of laser scanner and the results were compared to solid cylinders of equal circumambient diameter. Different angles of attack of the incoming flow lead to different blockage ratios, which have direct impact on the scour characteristics and deposition patterns. The arrays with the higher solid volume fraction generated scour/deposition patterns similar to solid cylinder, while in the arrays with the lower solid volume fractions, local scour around the individual small cylinders became evident. Finally, considering that the load bearing capacity of a pier basically depends on the area of its cross-section, a comparison of the maximum induced scour depth and volume by the cylinder arrays and the solid cylinder with equal solid cross-sectional area is presented, in order to introduce an alternative pier configuration that induces less scour. The results showed that the array of cylinders could generate 27% less scour volume and 22% less scour depth compared to its single solid cylinder counterpart.  相似文献   

积沙影响下伏冻土的水热耦合模型研究     

蔡迪文  张克存  安志山  郭紫晨 《干旱区地理》2017,40(3):523-532

青藏高原地区冻土正呈退化趋势,除气候变化、人为活动的影响外,沙漠化也被认为是冻土退化的原因之一,但仍存在较大争议。基于不饱和土渗流和热传导理论,结合CoLM和Coup-Model模型,初步构建了积沙-冻土-水热概念模型和耦合模型。并在两模型的基础上,讨论了沙层反射率、积沙体热容量、积沙体厚度和沙的传热率等参数对下伏冻土的热影响过程。结果表明,沙层的反射率、地面发射率均高于天然地表,沙层接受的热量较天然地表偏少;积沙地表下的沙层和活动层能截留更多热量,使冻结层获得的热量相对减少;沙的导热性较差,导致积沙地表下地温变化出现延迟,从而延缓冻土退化;同时,积沙无论厚薄,都将起到延缓冻土退化的作用。因而,沙漠化对青藏高原冻土退化的影响可能较小,但全面揭示沙漠化对冻土的影响仍需深入研究。  相似文献   

一种基于三维激光点云建模的技术方案     

史少维  李玉富  王瑞忠  李志宽  侯少聪  李岩  靳振士 《测绘通报》2017,(3):83-85

随着数字化城市建设的推进,大规模建筑物需要完成三维模型的工作,传统根据全站仪采集数据制作模型的方法效率低下,特别是针对复杂建筑、煤化厂、炼化厂等厂区装置进行建模,显得更加困难。本文提出了利用三维激光仪扫描点云数据进行三维建模的方案,可以大大缩短外业数据采集的时间,减少外业工作量。  相似文献   

Melting and differentiation of early-formed asteroids: The perspective from high precision oxygen isotope studies     

《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2017,77(1):1-43

A number of distinct methodologies are available for determining the oxygen isotope composition of minerals and rocks, these include laser-assisted fluorination, secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) and UV laser ablation. In this review we focus on laser-assisted fluorination, which currently achieves the highest levels of precision available for oxygen isotope analysis. In particular, we examine how results using this method have furthered our understanding of early-formed differentiated meteorites. Due to its rapid reaction times and low blank levels, laser-assisted fluorination has now largely superseded the conventional externally-heated Ni “bomb” technique for bulk analysis. Unlike UV laser ablation and SIMS analysis, laser-assisted fluorination is not capable of focused spot analysis. While laser fluorination is now a mature technology, further analytical improvements are possible via refinements to the construction of sample chambers, clean-up lines and the use of ultra-high resolution mass spectrometers.High-precision oxygen isotope analysis has proved to be a particularly powerful technique for investigating the formation and evolution of early-formed differentiated asteroids and has provided unique insights into the interrelationships between various groups of achondrites. A clear example of this is seen in samples that lie close to the terrestrial fractionation line (TFL). Based on the data from conventional oxygen isotope analysis, it was suggested that the main-group pallasites, the howardite eucrite diogenite suite (HEDs) and mesosiderites could all be derived from a single common parent body. However, high precision analysis demonstrates that main-group pallasites have a Δ¹⁷O composition that is fully resolvable from that of the HEDs and mesosiderites, indicating the involvement of at least two parent bodies. The range of Δ¹⁷O values exhibited by an achondrite group provides a useful means of assessing the extent to which their parent body underwent melting and isotopic homogenization. Oxygen isotope analysis can also highlight relationships between ungrouped achondrites and the more well-populated groups. A clear example of this is the proposed link between the evolved GRA 06128/9 meteorites and the brachinites.The evidence from oxygen isotopes, in conjunction with that from other techniques, indicates that we have samples from approximately 110 asteroidal parent bodies (∼60 irons, ∼35 achondrites and stony-iron, and ∼15 chondrites) in our global meteorite collection. However, compared to the likely size of the original protoplanetary asteroid population, this is an extremely low value. In addition, almost all of the differentiated samples (achondrites, stony-iron and irons) are derived from parent bodies that were highly disrupted early in their evolution.High-precision oxygen isotope analysis of achondrites provides some important insights into the origin of mass-independent variation in the early Solar System. In particular, the evidence from various primitive achondrite groups indicates that both the slope 1 (Y&R) and CCAM lines are of primordial significance. Δ¹⁷O differences between water ice and silicate-rich solids were probably the initial source of the slope 1 anomaly. These phases most likely acquired their isotopic composition as a result of UV photo-dissociation of CO that took place either in the early solar nebula or precursor giant molecular cloud. Such small-scale isotopic heterogeneities were propagated into larger-sized bodies, such as asteroids and planets, as a result of early Solar System processes, including dehydration, aqueous alteration, melting and collisional interactions.There is increasing evidence that chondritic parent bodies accreted relatively late compared to achondritic asteroids. This may account for the fact that apart from a few notable exceptions’ such as the aubrite-enstatite chondrite association, known chondrite groups could not have been the parents to the main achondrite groups.  相似文献   

应用ICP-MS研究黔西南地区构造蚀变体稀土元素地球化学特征   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

赵平  李爱民  刘建中  夏勇  严春杰  王泽鹏  杨刚  陈菊 《岩矿测试》2017,36(1):89-96

构造蚀变体(SBT)是沉积作用、构造作用和热液蚀变的综合产物。SBT作为黔西南地区金、锑、萤石等矿产的重要就位空间,金锑矿成矿与其密切相关。近年在黔西南地区发现了丰富的金资源量,关键在于SBT体系的提出及与之为核心的成矿模式的建立和应用。本文应用电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)分析了黔西南台地相区典型矿床的SBT样品,揭示稀土元素的地球化学特征。结果表明,不同矿区SBT的ΣREE=49.55×10~(-6)~271.72×10~(-6),含量变化较大,LREE/HREE=5.62~13.59,轻重稀土分馏明显,轻稀土富集;SBT对北美页岩和CI球粒陨石标准化配分模式图均表现为轻稀土富集的右倾型、"四分组"效应明显、强烈热液作用,为同一体系的产物;大厂至戈塘一线显示高的正铕异常,推测有两个方向含矿热液在此汇聚。本文系统对比了黔西南地区SBT稀土元素地球化学特征,反映该区成矿流体来源及演化,为本区微细浸染型金矿的成矿预测提供了依据。  相似文献   

黑色岩型铂族矿物中铂钯金相态ICP-MS分析方法研究   总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0  

连文莉  来新泽  刘军  张金矿  于亚辉  王明军  孙勇  王琳 《岩矿测试》2017,36(2):107-116

黑色岩是近年发现的铂族元素重要载体,由于其金属来源的多样性及成矿作用的复杂性,对于铂族元素在该类矿物中的分布及富集形式目前并不十分清楚,这也是造成黑色岩中铂族元素测定不稳定的主要原因。本文根据黑色岩的矿物性质及组成,将黑色岩中Pt、Pd、Au的赋存状态划分为:可交换相、有机结合相、硫化物结合相、残渣相。通过应用硫氰酸钾+氰化钠作为解吸剂,有效抑制了黑色岩中有机碳对各相态中Pt、Pd、Au的吸附,采用分离富集ICP-MS法测定了Pt、Pd、Au在各相态中的分布。结果表明:(1)各元素各相态的提取总量与该元素在样品中的总量之比分别为Pt 94.4%~101.0%,Pd 95.8%~101.0%,Au 96.7%~102.0%,说明本方法具有较好的准确性和重现性;(2)黑色岩矿物中Pt、Pd、Au的富集不仅具备亲硫性,而且与有机碳形成的地质条件、地质背景有明显的相关性,此结果为研究黑色岩中铂族元素所处的地球化学环境及其成矿规律提供了重要信息。  相似文献   

基于BIF条带状铁建造矿化特征的国际铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本定量研究     

王崴平  陈毓川 《岩矿测试》2017,36(2):187-195

国内外铁矿石价格对标基准多采用离岸价或到岸价,而非盈亏平衡运营成本,难以揭示我国铁矿石所面对的真实市场承压价格。为了厘清国际一线生产商的铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本价格,本文对世界上最重要的条带状铁建造(BIF)矿产地——西澳哈默斯利盆地高品位赤铁矿矿床的矿化特征及代表性铁矿石产品展开系统研究,同时引入巴西铁四角地区的铁英岩型赤铁矿矿石作为对照,分析全球典型高品位赤铁矿矿石经济指标。结合前人研究成果,将西澳哈默斯利盆地与BIF相关的高品位赤铁矿的富集矿化类型划分为假象赤铁矿-针铁矿、微板状赤铁矿与河道沉积型赤铁矿,巴西铁四角主要为铁英岩型赤铁矿。上述各矿化类型对应的铁矿石产品的铁元素含量均高于56%;在杂质元素含量上,假象赤铁矿-针铁矿的磷含量高,微板状赤铁矿的磷、硫含量较高,河道沉积型赤铁矿的磷、硫含量较低,铁英岩型赤铁矿含锰。经定量估算,西澳力拓、必和必拓、FMG和巴西淡水河谷的铁矿石盈亏平衡运营成本价格分别为34.66、36.76、47.35、38.07美元/干吨,可为中国海外权益铁矿项目开发提供运营成本的参考。  相似文献   

LA-ICP-MS工作参数优化及在锆石U-Pb定年分析中的应用   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

周亮亮  魏均启  王芳  仇秀梅 《岩矿测试》2017,36(4):350-359

将激光器(LA)和电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(ICP-MS)联用避免了溶液分析繁琐、耗时的前处理操作,减少了样品制备过程中可能带来的污染,同时又具备分析成本低、测试速度快、分析数据精度高等优势。本文将LA与ICP-MS联接使用,通过激光能量密度和剥蚀频率组合来讨论较低的元素分馏效应,同时匹配RF功率、采样深度、载气及He气流速等主要工作参数以获得较高的元素信号灵敏度和稳定性,从而得到仪器最优工作参数组合,建立了可靠的锆石U-Pb定年方法。通过对锆石标样91500、GJ-1及Ple2ovic互测结果表明,其206Pb/238U加权平均年龄分别为1063.9±6.0 Ma(2σ,n=20)、600.3±2.6 Ma(2σ,n=27)及337.6±1.7 Ma(2σ,n=20),测试结果准确度和精度均在1%范围内,与前人报道的误差范围一致。使用优化后的仪器参数对来自鄂东南铜绿山矿区石英正长闪长玢岩岩体中的实际锆石样品进行测试,获得其206Pb/238U年龄与前人研究结果基本一致,表明本法能准确地对锆石进行定年分析。  相似文献   

膜去溶-电感耦合等离子体质谱法测定环境地质样品中的镉   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

王岚  杨丽芳  谭西早  武朝辉 《岩矿测试》2017,36(6):574-580

应用电感耦合等离子体质谱法(ICP-MS)分析环境地质样品中的Cd时,Zr、Mo元素的氧化物和氢氧化物会对Cd造成严重干扰,导致结果有明显的偏差。针对此问题,本文建立了膜去溶-ICP-MS直接测定环境地质样品中微量Cd的分析方法,该方法可有效地消除Zr、Mo氧化物和氢氧化物对Cd的干扰,保证结果准确、可靠。膜去溶-ICP-MS相比于常规ICP-MS测定Cd的方法,可将Zr、Mo氧化物和氢氧化物对Cd的干扰降低到0.001%,检测灵敏度提高3.5倍左右。在给定条件下,Cd的检出限为0.28 ng/L,测定下限为2.2 ng/L,精密度(RSD,n=12)为2.2%。利用该方法分析20种岩石、土壤和沉积物国家标准物质的测定值与标准值相符,表明膜去溶-ICP-MS法直接测定环境地质样品中痕量或超痕量Cd时具有一定的应用潜力。同时,用该方法对2016年中核集团组织的实验室间两个比对样品中的Cd进行测定,稳健Z比分数分别为0.500和-0.964,Z的绝对值都小于2。  相似文献