Seismic hazard of Egypt   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. El-Sayed  R. Wahlströ;m  O. Kulhánek 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):247-259

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.  相似文献   

Estimation of covariance matrix from geochemical data with observations below detection limits     

Chang-Jo F. Chung 《Mathematical Geology》1993,25(7):851-865

Multivariate statistical analyses have been extensively applied to geochemical measurements to analyze and aid interpretation of the data. Estimation of the covariance matrix of multivariate observations is the first task in multivariate analysis. However, geochemical data for the rare elements, especially Ag, Au, and platinum-group elements, usually contain observations the below detection limits. In particular, Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA) for the rare elements produces multilevel and possibly extremely high detection limits depending on the sample weight. Traditionally, in applying multivariate analysis to such incomplete data, the observations below detection limits are first substituted, for example, each observation below the detection limit is replaced by a certain percentage of that limit, and then the standard statistical computer packages or techniques are used to obtain the analysis of the data. If a number of samples with observations below detection limits is small, or the detection limits are relatively near zero, the results may be reasonable and most geological interpretations or conclusions are probably valid. In this paper, a new method is proposed to estimate the covariance matrix from a dataset containing observations below multilevel detection limits by using the marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) method. For each pair of variables, sayY andZ whose observations containing below detection limits, the proposed method consists of three steps: (i) for each variable separately obtaining the marginal MLE for the means and the variances, , , , and forY andZ: (ii) defining new variables by and and lettingA=C+D andB=C–D, and obtaining MLE for variances, and forA andB; (iii) estimating the correlation coefficient _YZ by and the covariance _YZ by . The procedure is illustrated by using a precious metal geochemical data set from the Fox River Sill, Manitoba, Canada.  相似文献   

Estimation for partially observed Markov processes     

M. E. Thompson  T. N. Kaseke 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):33-47

Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (X_n, n 0) or (X_t, t 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Y_n, n 0) or (Y_t, t 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.  相似文献   

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence     

P. González-Sampériz  B.L. Valero-Garcés  G. Jalut  C. Martí-Bono  A. Navas  J.J. Dedoubat 《Quaternary Research》2006,66(1):38-52

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.  相似文献   

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

Interglacial History of a Palaeo-lake and Regional Environment: A Multi-proxy Study of a Permafrost Deposit from Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island, Arctic Siberia     

Boris P. Ilyashuk  Andrei A. Andreev  Anatoly A. Bobrov  Vladimir E. Tumskoy  Elena A. Ilyashuk 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(4):855-872

Chironomid, pollen, and rhizopod records from a permafrost sequence at Bol’shoy Lyakhovsky Island (New Siberian Archipelago) document the development of a thermokarst palaeo-lake and environmental conditions in the region during the last Interglacial (MIS 5e). Open Poaceae and Artemisia associations dominated vegetation at the beginning of the interglacial period. Rare shrub thickets (Salix, Betula nana, Alnus fruticosa) grew in more protected and wetter places as well. Saalian ice wedges started to melt during this time, resulting in the formation of an initial thermokarst water body. The high percentage of semi-aquatic chironomids suggests that a peatland-pool initially existed at the site. A distinct decrease in semi-aquatic chironomid taxa and an increase in lacustrine ones point to a gradual pooling of water in the basin, which could in turn induce thermokarst and create a permanent pond during the subsequent period. The highest relative abundance of Chironomus and Procladius reflects unfrozen water remaining under the ice throughout the ice-covered period during the later stage of palaeo-lake development. The chironomid record points to three successive stages during the history of the lake: (1) a peatland pool; (2) a pond (i.e., shallower than the maximum ice-cover thickness); and (3) a shallow lake (i.e., deeper than the maximum ice-cover thickness). The trend of palaeo-lake development indicates that intensive thermokarst processes occurred in the region during the last Interglacial. Shrub tundra communities with Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana dominated the vegetation during the interglacial optimum. The climate was moister and warmer than present. The results of this study suggest that quantitative chironomid-based temperature reconstructions from Arctic thermokarst ponds/lakes may be problematic due to other key environmental factors, such as prolonged periods of winter anoxia and local hydrological/geomorphological processes, controlling the chironomid assemblages.  相似文献   

Lake-Level Fluctuations and Small-Scale Vegetation Patterns During the Late Glacial in The Netherlands     

Johanna A. A. Bos  Sjoerd J. P. Bohncke  C. Roel Janssen 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2006,35(2):211-238

Late glacial changes in the vegetation were studied in and around a former lake on the southeastern side of a coversand ridge near Milheeze (southern Netherlands). Analyses of microfossils and macroremains and AMS ¹⁴C dating were performed on four sediment cores along a transect from sand ridge to the lake centre. Small-scale vegetation patterns and lake-level fluctuations were reconstructed in detail based on the information provided by the transect. For the first time in The Netherlands, cores along a transect within one lake were used to reconstruct the amplitude of late glacial lake-level fluctuations. Near Milheeze, a small and shallow lake was formed during the Bølling. The large increase in the water level during the Bølling and early Allerød, and the transition to more eutrophic conditions at the start of the Allerød, were probably related to the disappearance of permafrost. During the Allerød, open birch and pine woodlands developed in the area. In the lake, organic deposits accumulated, and the lake size and depth fluctuated. At the start of the Younger Dryas, higher lake water levels were recorded and woodlands became more open as a result of both a drop in the temperature and an increase in the effective precipitation. During the late Younger Dryas the lake water level dropped as the climate became drier and temperatures slightly increased. Accumulation of organic deposits in the lake ceased at the end of the Younger Dryas, which was caused by a drop in the water level in combination with the hydroseral succession process within the lake itself. The climatic signal reflected in the late glacial flora and lake-level fluctuations agree well with other published data from The Netherlands.  相似文献   

Effects of mode coupling and location of rotational axis on glacial induced rotational deformation in a laterally heterogeneous viscoelastic earth     

Patrick Wu  Hansheng Wang 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(2):853-859

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Evidence of reworking and resuspension of carbonates during last glacial maximum and early deglacial period along the southwest coast of India     

Kamlesh Verma  M Sudhakar 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(6):695-702

A gravity core collected from the upper slope of southwest of Quilon at a water depth of 776 m (Lat: 8°12′263″N, Long: 76°28′281″E) was analysed for texture (carbonate free), calcium carbonate and organic carbon. Variation in silicic fraction seems to be controlled by silt, i.e., enrichment from 15 ka BP to 10 ka BP and then constant in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, the silicic fraction gets depleted compared to the Holocene section with a minimum around 21 ka BP. Clay content remains nearly constant except in the Holocene where it shows an enrichment. Carbonate content of less than 63 micron when computed by subtracting coarse fraction content from the total carbonate suggests that the total carbonates are mainly concentrated in the finer fraction. All these carbonate phases show an inverse relationship with silicic fraction except in Holocene. Below 15 ka BP, CaCO₃ dominates in sediments comprising more than 65%, such an increase is also seen in the coarse fraction. Coarse fraction from these sections contains abundant nodular type aggregates encrusting small forams. This period is marked by a high sedimentation rate comparable to Holocene. These parameters suggest that the productivity and precipitation have increased in the Holocene due to the intensification of the southwest monsoon. During the last glacial maximum and early deglacial period the high sedimentation rate indicates redeposition of the carbonates from the existing carbonate lithofacies situated between Quilon and Cape Comorin probably due to the slope instability.  相似文献   

青藏高原唐古拉山口第四纪冰碛层划分及其地质环境意义   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4       下载免费PDF全文

段志明  李勇  李亚林  张毅王谋 《中国地质》2005,32(1):128-134

在对唐古拉山口现代冰川和古冰川考察研究的基础上，结合定位观测资料和TL、^10B-^26Al-^21Ne及^14C测年数据，对区内第四纪冰川遗迹进行了深入讨论，划分出二次冰期(即中更新世晚期的倒数第二次冰期、晚更新世中一晚期的末次冰期)和二次全新世冰进(即新冰期和小冰期)。提出在早更新世时，由于山体未达到当时冰川发育的雪线高度，所以未发育冰川。但在唐古拉山口地区，截止目前还未找到中更新世早期的倒数第三次冰期的冰川遗迹，由于高原隆升的滞后性和冰川发育的延滞效应及“亚洲干极”的耦合，推测仍只发育局部冰川作用。进一步研究表明，古今雪线由高原边缘向腹地升高，唐古拉山地区高出边缘1500m左右，生动表现了“亚洲干极”的作用；广泛分布的湖群说明羌塘地区是一个大江大河尚未伸入的内流地区，意味着青藏高原是个年青的高原。由于青藏高原的隆升，对高原腹地引起的干旱化过程和水分严重不足，使唐古拉山地区的冰川自倒数第二次冰期以来，冰川规模一次比一次明显地减小。  相似文献