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Shoreline variation and river deltas are among the most dynamic systems in marine environments. The related different variations in spatial and temporal scales play significant roles in land planning and different management applications. Modeling the dynamics of seashore of Boujagh National Park (BNP) which is located on the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in the Sefidrud Delta (SD), considering natural and anthropogenic factors, was the main objective of the current study. To achieve this goal, a combination of remote sensing data, historical data, and numerical simulations was utilized. The BNP covers an area of 3,270 ha and includes two international wetlands, Boujagh and Kiashahr. In earlier periods, this area faced severe morphological changes whereas recently its shoreline has experienced gradual variations. Accordingly, at the first stage, the shoreline variation from 2006 to 2017 was extracted by processing and classifying Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thematic Mapper (TM) images from Landsat satellites using the Maximum Likelihood approach. In the second stage, the two dimensional MIKE21 model was utilized to identify wave and coastal current patterns and parameters for the year 2015. Morphologically, the results showed that, the shoreline of the BNP is affected by several natural and anthropogenic factors. Seaward advancement of the shoreline occurred in zones A (east zone) and C (west zone) due to Caspian Sea Level drop and sedimentation while retreating occurred at Zone B (north zone) influenced by wave and current patterns and reduction of the Sefidrud River flows. Also, the results imply that maintaining the existing conditions results in the disappearance of a considerable part of the ecological area in the BNP. Hence, to manage and preserve the coastline of the BNP complying with the current anthropogenic and natural factors, it is vital to take necessary management measures. 相似文献
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Impacts of environmental stressors on the water resources of intensively managed hydrologic systems 
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下载免费PDF全文 Watersheds are complex systems due to their surface and subsurface spatially connected water fluxes and biochemical processes that shape Earth's critical zone. In intensively managed landscapes, the implementation of watershed management practices (WMPs) regulate their short‐term responses, whereas climate variability controls the long‐term processes. Understanding their responses to anthropogenic and natural stressors requires a holistic approach that takes into account their multiscale spatio‐temporal linkages. The objective of this study was to simulate the impacts of spatially and temporally varying WMPs and projected climate changes on the surface and groundwater resources in the Upper Sangamon River Basin (USRB), a watershed in central Illinois greatly impacted by agricultural and industrial operations. The physically based hydrologic model MIKE‐SHE was used to simulate the hydrologic responses of the basin to different WMPs and climatic conditions. The simulation of a WMP was varied spatially across the basin to determine the spectrum of responses and critical conditions. In general, the wetlands and forested riparian buffer scenarios were found to cause a reduction in the average streamflow, whereas crop rotation had varied responses depending on the location of implementation and the climate condition assumed. Reductions of up to 30% in the average streamflow were found for the forested riparian buffer under the ESM 2M climate projections, whereas an increase of up to 13% with the crop rotation schemes under CM3 climate was predicted. The model results showed that the installation of tile drains across the USRB increased the water table depth (from ground level) by up to 56%, making crop production possible. Groundwater level in USRB appeared to be more sensitive to future climatic conditions than to WMP implementation. The impacts of WMPs are determined to depend on the climate conditions under which they are applied. Investigating individual and combined stressors' effects over the critical zone at a watershed scale can lead to a more comprehensive analysis of the risk and trade‐offs in every managerial decision that will enable an efficient use of resources. 相似文献
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塔里木河中上游土地利用变化的径流响应 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
为了定量分析塔里木河中上游土地利用变化对径流的影响程度,基于塔里木河流域1980-2015年土地利用数据及相关水文系列资料,利用MIKE SHE分布式水文模型客观模拟评价了流域中上游土地利用变化下的水文响应过程。结果表明：MIKE SHE模型可以较好的模拟塔里木河流域中上游的日流量过程,在研究区具有良好的适用性;1980-2015年间流域土地利用变化导致流域地表日径流量减少了4.2 m3·s-1。通过仿真模拟分析草地、林地、耕地三种土地利用情景,得到日均流量分别为147.56 m3·s-1、141.80 m3·s-1,144.72 m3·s-1由此可见,该流域径流对不同土地利用类型的响应差异较大,产流量的总体趋势为草地>耕地>林地。研究成果对于流域土地利用格局的合理规划及极端水文事件的控制具有重要意义。 相似文献
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Effect of potential evapotranspiration estimates on effective parameters and performance of the MIKE SHE-code applied to a medium-size catchment 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
R. F. Vzquez 《Journal of Hydrology》2003,270(3-4):309-327
The effect of the method of calculating a time series of crop potential evapotranspiration (ETp) on both the model performance and the magnitude of the main effective parameters of a distributed hydrological model was assessed on the basis of an independent multi-calibration. The ETp was estimated as a function of the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by means of a crop coefficient approach. Three methods for deriving ETo estimates were used in modelling a medium size catchment in Belgium: (A) Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) FAO-24 standard approach; (B) FAO-24 approach but used with coefficients, for both the wind and the Stefan-Boltzmann equations, differing from the standard formulation; and (C) FAO-56 standard approach. For assessing the performance of the estimation approaches, the point scale ETo outputs of the generation methods were compared to local point scale ETo guidelines derived from previous research. The outputs of generation method B and of the generation method C showed a close agreement with the local point scale ETo guidelines. Their effect (to a catchment scale) on the performance of the hydrological model also seemed to be comparable. The best model performance was obtained by using the higher ETo data generated by method A. The research also revealed a significant dependency of some of the effective parameters on the different ETp estimates; especially of those parameters related to the computation of the actual evapotranspiration (ETact). 相似文献
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Floods have been the most severe natural disasters in the West Black Sea Region of Turkey for many years; therefore Ulus Basin
is selected as a study area for a thorough hydrologic flood analysis. The lack of embankments around the Ulus River and careless
changes to the riverbed made by villagers, resulted in major flood events in the basin, causing significant damage in the
area. In this study, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the basin and the riverbed are determined by calibrating the hydraulic
module of the MIKE 11 modeling system with the observed 1991 flood. Then, for the 25-, 50- and 100-year floods the highest
water levels in the river are forecasted by integration of the MIKE 11 hydrologic and hydraulic modules. Afterwards, inundation
maps are obtained by using together the hydraulic and GIS modules of the MIKE 11 system. 相似文献
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厦门港刘五店航道海域溢油扩散数值模拟 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用MIKE 21 HD模块建立了厦门湾二维水动力模型,经2008年最新实测资料,验证了模型的可靠性和适用性,模拟结果为厦门湾刘五店航道二维溢油模型的建立提供水动力基础数据.利用MIKE21 SA模块建立厦门湾刘五店航道二维溢油模型,应用"油粒子"模型模拟输移、风化和热量迁移等过程,对刘五店航道一期工程溢油泄露事故进行... 相似文献