Sampling efficiency in Monte Carlo based uncertainty propagation strategies: Application in seawater intrusion simulations     

《Advances in water resources》2014

The implementation of Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs) for the propagation of uncertainty in real-world seawater intrusion (SWI) numerical models often becomes computationally prohibitive due to the large number of deterministic solves needed to achieve an acceptable level of accuracy. Previous studies have mostly relied on parallelization and grid computing to decrease the computational time of MCSs. However, another approach which has received less attention in the literature is to decrease the number of deterministic simulations by using more efficient sampling strategies. Sampling efficiency is a measure of the optimality of a sampling strategy. A more efficient sampling strategy requires fewer simulations and less computational time to reach a certain level of accuracy. The efficiency of a sampling strategy is highly related to its space-filling characteristics.This paper illustrates that the use of optimized Latin hypercube sampling (OLHS) strategies instead of the widely employed simple random sampling (SRS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) strategies, can significantly improve sampling efficiency and hence decrease the simulation time of MCSs. Nine OLHS strategies are evaluated including: improved Latin hypercube sampling (IHS); optimum Latin hypercube (OLH) sampling; genetic optimum Latin hypercube (GOLH) sampling; three sampling strategies based on the enhanced stochastic evolutionary (ESE) algorithm namely φ_p-ESE which employs the φ_p space-filling criterion, CLD-ESE which utilizes the centered L₂-discrepancy (CLD) space-filling criterion, and SLD-ESE which uses the star L₂-discrepancy (SLD) space-filling criterion; and three sampling strategies based on the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm namely φ_p-SA which employs the φ_p criterion, CLD-SA which uses the CLD criterion, and SLD-SA which utilizes the SLD criterion. The study applies SRS, LHS and the nine OLHS strategies to MCSs of two synthetic test cases of SWI. The two test cases are the Henry problem and a two-dimensional radial representation of SWI in a circular island. The comparison demonstrates that the CLD-ESE strategy is the most efficient among the evaluated strategies. This paper also demonstrates how the space-filling characteristics of different OLHS designs change with variations in the input arguments of their optimization algorithms.  相似文献   

长乐-南澳构造带白垩纪“片麻状”浆混杂岩的成岩机制研究——以泉州肖厝岩体为例     

邢光福  李龙明  姜杨  冯艳芳  卢清地  陈志洪  余明刚  段政 《火山地质与矿产》2014,(2):79-94

闽东南长乐南澳构造带沿线出露大面积白垩纪花岗岩岩基,普遍存在岩浆混合现象,肖厝侵入岩是其中的代表性岩体.野外观察和化学分析表明,肖厝侵入岩由二长花岗岩和辉长闪长岩、以及该两种混合端员岩浆混合形成的闪长质-花岗闪长质-花岗质过渡岩类组成;岩石总体富碱、富LREE和LILE、贫HFSE; A/CNK=0.82～1.05,属准铝质微过铝质钙碱性系列,部分受流体交代的岩石A/CNK值可升高至1.69;岩浆混合过程中发生了元素的选择性富集/亏损和同位素组成的均一化,（87Sr/86Sr）为0.7055～0.7061,εNd（t）为-1.9～-3.0.锆石年代学研究表明,肖厝侵入岩的岩浆混合开始于约136Ma,于121Ma时初始侵位于下地壳.结合区域地质特征,分析了肖厝侵入岩的成岩机制,提出岩体侵位早于长乐-南澳构造带的变质变形作用,两者不存在成因上的联系;118～～100Ma时该构造带曾发生过深层次地壳逆冲推覆,使形成于中—下地壳的韧性剪切带和肖厝侵入岩共同快速上升至地表.  相似文献   

Monitoring and methods to analyse the groundwater quality degradation risk in coastal karstic aquifers (Apulia,Southern Italy)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Polemio  V. Dragone  P. P. Limoni 《Environmental Geology》2009,58(2):299-312

A multi-methodological approach based on monitoring and spatio-temporal analysis of groundwater quality changes is proposed. The presented tools are simple, quick and cost-effective to give service to all sorts of users. The chief purpose of the monitoring network is the detection of the piezometric or potenziometric level in the aquifer. The spatial and multi-temporal analysis of usual chemical and physical data provides both an assessment of the spatial vulnerability of the aquifer to seawater intrusion, defining a salinity threshold between fresh groundwater and brackish groundwater and of the water quality trend in terms of salinity. The evaluation of the salinity trend or of salinity-correlated parameters highlights the effects of groundwater mismanagement. The multiparameter logging provides a rapid groundwater quality classification for each well. The whole approach allows evaluating the effects of current management criteria and designing more appropriate management targets. The Apulian karstic coastal aquifers have been selected as a case study (Southern Italy). Three types of aquifer zones can be distinguished: (1) areas with low vulnerability to seawater intrusion, (2) areas with high vulnerability and (3) areas with variable vulnerability in which the salt degradation largely depends on the ability to manage the well discharge. The water quality degradation caused by seawater intrusion appears to be a combined effect of an anomalous succession of drought periods observed from about 1980 onwards and increased groundwater pumping, particularly during drought periods. A management criterion based on aquifer zones is proposed.  相似文献   

阿尔金山南缘长沙沟镁铁-超镁铁质层状杂岩体的发现与地质意义——岩石学和地球化学初步研究   总被引：12，自引：10，他引：2  

马中平  李向民  孙吉明  徐学义  雷永孝  王立社  段星星 《岩石学报》2009,25(4):793-804

阿尔金山南缘地区,侵入于新太古界—新元古界变质地层中的长沙沟镁铁-超镁铁质岩由四个呈断层接触的镁铁-超镁铁质岩块组成,形成年龄为462~470Ma。不同岩块内岩石的地球化学特征虽有差异,但均以LREE及强不相容元素的富集和高的Zr/Y比值（＞4.1）为特征,形成于大陆裂谷环境。其中,清水泉北段可以划分出3~4个主体由辉橄岩-角闪辉长岩构成的岩浆旋回,具有层状岩体的特征,其母岩浆的Mg^#=53.7~55.9,为演化型母岩浆,暗示其经历了富镁矿物的分离结晶,且(Th/Nb)_N＞1.0、Nb/La比值＜1.0、以及发育的矿物逆序包裹现象等表明经历了明显的地壳混染和岩浆混合作用;而清水泉南和长沙沟中段镁铁-超镁铁质岩的(Th/Nb)_N＜1.0、Nb/La比值＞1.0,基本未遭受地壳混染,并且此Mg^#与FeO^T、TiO₂负相关、与SiO₂正相关,呈现良好的Fenner演化趋势特征;清水泉南纯橄岩-辉橄岩具有极高的Mg^#（90.6~84.5）,而赋存有钛-磁铁矿工业矿体的长沙沟中段镁铁-超镁铁岩的Mg^#值较低（75.8~49.2）,推测它们是同一母岩浆（Mg^# =78.2）经Fenner演化趋势后分别形成的早期富Mg矿物堆晶相和稍晚期的富Fe-Ti残余岩浆相。长沙沟中奥陶世裂谷型层状镁铁-超镁铁质杂岩体的发现,意味着这一时期阿尔金山南缘地区处于伸展背景下,具有形成岩浆型PGE-Cu-Ni硫化物矿床和V-Ti-Fe氧化物矿床的地质背景和重要的成矿物质载体。作为该地区一种新的找矿思路,该地区同一构造带内其它镁铁-超镁超镁铁质岩体的性质及可能的金属矿化作用等也是值得进一步研究探索的。  相似文献   

太行山南段符山高镁闪长岩的成因 —— 拆沉陆壳物质熔融的熔体与地幔橄榄岩反应的结果   总被引：9，自引：6，他引：3  

许文良  杨德彬  裴福萍  于洋 《岩石学报》2009,25(8):1947-1961

本文对太行山南段符山高镁闪长岩进行了年代学与地球化学研究,结合其中地幔橄榄岩包体的研究,对符山高镁闪长岩的成因和中生代岩石圈地幔的性质进行了探讨.研究表明,符山闪长岩体是由一套含橄榄石角闪闪长岩-角闪闪长岩-闪长岩构成.含橄榄岩包体的寄主岩--角闪闪长岩中的锆石可划分为两种:一是代表寄主岩浆结晶的锆石:内部结构均匀、呈条带状吸收、自形-半自形晶形,具有较高的Th/U比值(1.10～4.08),其206Pb/238U年龄介于123～128Ma之间,12个点的加权平均值为125±1Ma,这表明岩体的形成时代为早白垩世;二是捕获或继承锆石:具有核边结构、吸收程度不均匀、呈浑圆状和自形-半自形两种,它们的Th/U比值介于0.32～2.03之间,构成了3组207Pb/206Pb加权平均年龄:2503±11Ma、2181±26Ma和1778±36Ma.该类岩石的SiO2和MgO含量分别介于56.69%～59.21%和3.60%～6.33%之间;且以高:Mg#(0.51～0.64)、富Na(Na2O/K2O大于1)、高Cr(93.1×10-6～420×10-6)、Ni(35.1×10-6～137×10-6)为特征.该类岩石强烈富集轻稀土元素和大离子亲石元素、明显亏损高场强元素,(87Sr/86Sr)I、εNd(t)值和(206Pb/204Pb)I分别变化于0.70581～0.70641、-8.30～-16.56和17.052～17.512之间.综合上述特征,同时结合地幔橄榄岩包体的特征和古元古代捕获锆石的大量存在,认为符山高镁闪长岩的原始岩浆起源于拆沉陆壳物质的部分熔融,其后经历了与地幔橄榄岩的反应过程.  相似文献   

鄂东鸡冠嘴矿区成矿岩体锆石SHRIMP U-Pb定年及其意义   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

李华芹  陈富文  梅玉萍 《大地构造与成矿学》2009,33(3)

鄂东鸡冠嘴铜金(铁)矿床位于阳新岩体西北端,与铜绿山铜金矿床毗邻。矿区成矿岩体主要岩性为石英正长闪长玢岩、石英闪长岩、闪长岩和安山玢岩。其中石英正长闪长玢岩与成矿关系密切。在前人矿床地质特征研究基础上,笔者对成矿岩体进行了锆石SHRIMP U-Pb定年,获得石英正长闪长玢岩和闪长岩的年龄为146±2Ma(95%可信度,MSWD=1.3)和132±4Ma(95%可信度,MSWD=3)。测定结果表明,区内石英正长闪长玢岩和闪长岩分属燕山早期和燕山晚期岩浆活动的产物。鉴于矿体在空间上主要赋存于岩体内外接触带及层间破碎带中,推测成矿作用应略晚于石英正长闪长玢岩(146±2Ma)而早于闪长岩侵位的时间(132±4Ma),这与前人获得长江中下游铜铁金成矿带代表性矿床的辉钼矿Re-Os模式年龄分布在134.7～143Ma的研究结果一致。  相似文献   

Sensitivity study of the seasonal mean circulation in the northern South China Sea   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

宏波  王东晓 《大气科学进展》2008,25(5):824-840

A study of the circulation in the northern South China Sea （SCS） is carried out with the aid of a three-dimensional, high-resolution regional ocean model. One control and two sensitivity experiments are performed to qualitatively investigate the effects of surface wind forcing, Kuroshio intrusion, and bottom topographic influence on the circulation in the northern SCS. The model results show that a branch of the Kuroshio in the upper layer can intrude into the SCS and have direct influence on the circulation over the continental shelf break in the northern SCS. There are strong southward pressure gradients along a zonal belt largely seaward of the continental slope. The pressure gradients are opposite in the southern and northern parts of the Luzon Strait, indicating inflow and outflow through the strait, respectively. The sensitivity experiments suggest that the Kuroshio intrusion is responsible for generating the imposed pressure head along the shelf break and has no obvious seasonal variations. The lateral forcing through the Luzon Strait and Taiwan Strait can induce the southwestward slope current and the northeastward SCS Warm Current in the northern SCS. Without the lateral forcing, there is the continental slope. The wind forcing mainly causes the The wind-induced water pile-up results in the southward no high-pressure-gradient zonal belt seaward of seasonal variation of the circulation in the SCS. high pressure gradient along the northwestern boundary of the basin. Without the blocking of the plateau around Dongsha Islands, the intruded Kuroshio tends to extend northwest and the SCS branch of the Kuroshio becomes wider and stronger. The analyses presented here are qualitative in nature but should lead to a better understanding of the oceanic responses in the northern SCS to these external influence factors.  相似文献   

长江河口青草沙水库最长连续不宜取水天数     

朱建荣  顾玉亮  吴辉 《海洋与湖沼》2013,44(5):1138-1145

为解决上海日益增长的用水需求, 保障淡水资源安全, 需要建设长江河口避咸蓄淡特大型水库。本文应用改进的三维长江河口盐水入侵数值模式, 采用2007和2008年10个水文站盐度资料对模式进行验证, 计算青草沙水库最长不宜取水天数。本文以径流量特枯的1978—1979年作为水文计算年, 考虑三峡工程、南水北调东线工程和沿江引排水对大通实测逐日径流量的修正, 考虑潮汐、风应力和混合等作用。根据2003年地形计算得出青草沙水库的最长连续不宜取水天数为68天, 这个水库设计的重要参数已在水库建设中采用。根据2008年地形计算得出青草沙水库的最长连续不宜取水天数为54天, 已被水库调度采用。2003年至2008年北支上段河势发生了明显变化, 导致北支盐水倒灌减弱, 因此这期间的最长不宜取水天数减少。  相似文献   

Modeling of circulation and salinity in Hooghly estuary     

P. C. Sinha  Y. R. Rao  S. K. Dube  A. D. Rao  A. K. Chatterjee 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(2):197-213

The circulation and salinity distribution in the Hooghly Estuary have been studied by developing a two‐dimensional depth‐averaged numerical model for the lower estuary, where the flow is vertically well mixed. This has been coupled with a one‐dimensional model for the upper estuary, where the flow is assumed to be unidirectional and well mixed over the depth and breadth. The Hooghly River receives high freshwater discharge during the monsoon season (June to September), which has significant effect on the salinity distribution in the estuary. The model‐simulated currents, elevations, and salinities are in good agreement with observations during the dry season. However, during the wet season the computed salinities seem to deviate slightly from the observed values.  相似文献   

岩墙厚度对成矿作用的约束:以石湖金矿为例   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

李德东  罗照华  周久龙  杨宗锋  刘翠 《地学前缘》2011,18(1):166-178

根据透岩浆流体成矿理论,岩浆体是含矿流体的通道而不是来源,因而估算含矿流体注入岩浆体的能力是评价高位侵入体成矿潜力的有效方法。文中利用一维传热模型计算了石湖金矿区三类代表性岩墙(花岗斑岩、石英闪长玢岩和辉绿岩)不同厚度条件下的冷却时间尺度,同时估算了岩浆冷却过程中的粘度变化速率。假定岩浆侵位于约6 km,且完全固结时含矿流体才不能有效注入,石湖金矿区三类代表性岩墙的最小临界成矿厚度分别为3345 m(花岗斑岩)、822 m(石英闪长玢岩)和102 m(辉绿岩)。模拟结果与石湖金矿区矿体的产状一致,暗示模拟结果具有较强的实用价值。结合岩墙长度/宽度比值,进一步估算致矿侵入体的最小临界出露面积分别约为312～1 561 m2(玄武质岩体)、0014～0068 km2(石英闪长玢岩)和0011～0034 km2(花岗斑岩)。估算结果为野外地质找矿提供了一个定性的标准,对快速资源勘查具有参考价值。  相似文献