Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models     

Mark S. Bebbington 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(2):921-942

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.  相似文献   

Pre-eruptive and syn-eruptive conditions in the Black Butte, California dacite: Insight into crystallization kinetics in a silicic magma system     

Molly C. McCanta  Malcolm J. Rutherford  Julia E. Hammer 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2007,160(3-4):263-284

A series of experiments and petrographic analyses have been run to determine the pre-eruption phase equilibria and ascent dynamics of dacitic lavas composing Black Butte, a dome complex on the flank of Mount Shasta, California. Major and trace element analyses indicate that the Black Butte magma shared a common parent with contemporaneously erupted magmas at the Shasta summit. The Black Butte lava phenocryst phase assemblage (20 v.%) consists of amphibole, plagioclase (core An_77.5), and Fe–Ti oxides in a fine-grained (< 0.5 mm) groundmass of plagioclase, pyroxene, Fe–Ti oxides, amphibole, and cristobalite. The phenocryst assemblage and crystal compositions are reproduced experimentally between 890 °C and 910 °C, ≥ 300 MPa, X_H2O = 1, and oxygen fugacity = NNO + 1. This study has quantified the extent of three crystallization processes occurring in the Black Butte dacite that can be used to discern ascent processes. Magma ascent rate was quantified using the widths of amphibole breakdown rims in natural samples, using an experimental calibration of rim development in a similar magma at relevant conditions. The majority of rims are 34 ± 10 μm thick, suggesting a time-integrated magma ascent rate of 0.004–0.006 m/s among all four dome lobes. This is comparable to values for effusive samples from the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and slightly faster than those estimated at Montserrat. A gap between the compositions of plagioclase phenocryst cores and microlites suggests that while phenocryst growth was continuous throughout ascent, microlite formation did not occur until significantly into ascent. The duration of crystallization is estimated using the magma reservoir depth and ascent rate, as determined from phase equilibria and amphibole rim widths, respectively. Textural analysis of the natural plagioclase crystals yields maximum growth rates of plagioclase phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites of 8.7 × 10^− 8 and 2.5 × 10^− 8 mm/s, respectively. These rates are comparable to values determined from time-sequenced samples of dacite erupted effusively from Mount St. Helens during 1980 and indicate that syneruptive crystallization processes were important during the Black Butte eruptive cycle.  相似文献   

略论珠穆朗玛峰重力值的推估   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张赤军 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2001,26(6):544-548,554

仅根据邻近点的重力与高程资料,采用了4种有关公式,有效地推估了珠穆朗玛峰顶上的重力值,该值为(976 970±7)×10-5m  相似文献   

珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶元素成分的监测及分析   总被引：9，自引：8，他引：9  

张仁健  邹捍  王明星  周立波  朱光华 《高原气象》2001,20(3):234-238

对珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶化学民分进行了观测和分析。初步分析结果表明，珠峰地区大气气溶胶以Al,Ca,Si,K,Fe等地壳元素为主，地壳元素占总元素浓度的82％以上。S,Pb等与人类活动影响有关的污染元素含量很低。元素S浓度为91．64ng.m^-3，元素Pb浓度仅为2．93ng.m^-3，接近于格陵兰地区的浓度，从气富集因子来看，来自地壳成分元素的富集因子要小于北京地区。而As,Pb等与人类活动有关的气溶胶元素的富集因子也比北京地区低得多。研究表明，人类活动对珠峰地区的影响很小。  相似文献   

生态旅游胜地—九顶山   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

廖声萍  郭建强 《四川地质学报》2001,21(4):241-245

对九顶山的生物景观，水体景观，地质遗迹景观，天然气景观和人文景观等方面进行了详尽的描述，并划分出平水河景区，云湖景区，楠木沟景区，紫岩山景区，白云山景区，仙女洞景区和天池景区等七个景区，从科学性，美学性，文化性以及区位条件和功能方面对景观进行了评述。进而提出了开发的初步构想。  相似文献   

Impacts　of　the　Kuwait　Oil　Fires　on　the　Mount　Qomolangma　Region   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Gao Dengyi  Lu Weixiu  Gao Yongqi 《大气科学进展》1996,13(2):196-202

Mt. Qomolangma (also known as Mt. Everest), the world’s highest mountain, is situated over the world’s highest plateau, the Tibetan Plateau. Because of its height and because of its distance from industrialized areas, the environmental state of the Mt. Qomolangma region can normally be considered “undisturbed”. It is interesting to investigate how this “undisturbed” state has been changing with time and whether it has been influenced by large environmentally disruptive events such as the Kuwait oil fires of 1990 and 1991 (Small, 1991). In order to do this, riv-er water samples were collected from the Rongpu River at Rongpu Temple Station in the summers of 1992 and 1993, as was done in 1975, and aerosol samples were collected in the summer of 1992 at the same station as was done in 1980. River water samples were analyzed using atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) at the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Aerosol samples were analyzed using proton-induced x-ray emission (PIXE) at the University of Fudan in Shanghai. The results show that the concentrations of chemical species in the river water at Rongpu Temple Station were much higher in the summer of 1992 than they were in 1975 and 1993, and the concentrations of atmospheric chemical species were much higher in 1992 than they were in 1980. The environment of the north slope of Mt. Qomolangma was therefore heavily polluted before and/or during the summer of 1992, possibly due to the Kuwait oil fires in 1990 and 1991.  相似文献   

浙江天目山自然保护区珍稀濒危植物及其利用与保护     

刘鹏  陈立人 《山地学报》1996,(1)

天目山是浙江省珍稀濒危植物最丰富的地区，共有国家保护的珍稀濒危植物２５科、３４属、３７种，其中属二级保护１３种，三级保护２４种．论述了天目山珍稀濒危植物的区系特点、类型及地理分布，列举了它们的一些利用价值，最后提出了保护天目山珍稀濒危植物的一系列建议．  相似文献   

冷水江煤矿塘冲矿井的地质采勘对比分析     

袁正泉 《湖南地质》1992,11(4):318-323

塘冲矿井的大量井巷地质资料与原勘探精查报告对比分析表明,原精查报告内容与实际情况有较大出入,特别是控煤褶皱、断裂,煤层厚度与储量等方面,都存在较大差异,对矿山采矿影响颇大。究其原因,可能是勘查阶段受规范和技术手段等的限制,使原报告精度不够。因此,本文提出改进勘探方法,完善规范,提高勘查精度和加强煤矿生产补充勘探,都显得十分重要。  相似文献   

黄山第四纪泥砾沉积物的成因分析   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

周秉根  李刚 《冰川冻土》1992,14(4):360-365

  相似文献   

Mascali,Mount Etna Region Sicily: An Example of Fascist Planning During the 1928 Eruption and Its Continuing Legacy     

Chester  David K.  Duncan  Angus M.  Dibben  Christopher  Guest  John E.  Lister  Philip H. 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(1):29-46

The 1928 eruption of Etna, Sicily, although the largest such event this century, has not been studied in detail. In this paper the nature of the eruption, the destruction it caused – including the complete devastation of the town of Mascali (pre-eruption population 2,000) – and emergency responses of the authorities to it are reviewed in the context of fascist politics and planning priorities. It is contended that, although at one level the response to the 1928 eruption was successful, at another fascism merely continued and enhanced a reactive, propitiatory approach to hazard mitigation. We argue that this legacy was not successfully overcome until the middle of the nineteen eighties. Finally contemporary Italian moves towards a more proactive approach to disaster planning, both generally and in the context of Etna, are discussed.  相似文献