Identifying volcanic regimes using Hidden Markov Models     

Mark S. Bebbington 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(2):921-942

We examine the application of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) to volcanic occurrences. The parameters in HMMs can be estimated from data by means of the Expectation–Maximization (EM) algorithm. Various formulations permit modelling the activity level of a volcano through onset counts, the intensity of a Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP), or through the intervals between onsets. More elaborate models allow investigation of the relationship between durations and reposes. After fitting the model, the Viterbi algorithm can be used to identify the underlying (hidden) activity level of the volcano most consistent with the observations. The HMM readily provides forecasts of the next event, and is easily simulated. Data of flank eruptions 1600–2006 from Mount Etna are used to illustrate the methodology. We find that the volcano has longish periods of Poissonian behaviour, interspersed with less random periods, and that changes in regime may be more frequent than have previously been identified statistically. The flank eruptions of Mount Etna appear to have a complex time-predictable character, which is compatible with transitions between an open and closed conduit system. The relationship between reposes and durations appears to characterize the cyclic nature of the volcanoes activity.  相似文献   

Pre-eruptive and syn-eruptive conditions in the Black Butte, California dacite: Insight into crystallization kinetics in a silicic magma system     

Molly C. McCanta  Malcolm J. Rutherford  Julia E. Hammer 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2007,160(3-4):263-284

A series of experiments and petrographic analyses have been run to determine the pre-eruption phase equilibria and ascent dynamics of dacitic lavas composing Black Butte, a dome complex on the flank of Mount Shasta, California. Major and trace element analyses indicate that the Black Butte magma shared a common parent with contemporaneously erupted magmas at the Shasta summit. The Black Butte lava phenocryst phase assemblage (20 v.%) consists of amphibole, plagioclase (core An_77.5), and Fe–Ti oxides in a fine-grained (< 0.5 mm) groundmass of plagioclase, pyroxene, Fe–Ti oxides, amphibole, and cristobalite. The phenocryst assemblage and crystal compositions are reproduced experimentally between 890 °C and 910 °C, ≥ 300 MPa, X_H2O = 1, and oxygen fugacity = NNO + 1. This study has quantified the extent of three crystallization processes occurring in the Black Butte dacite that can be used to discern ascent processes. Magma ascent rate was quantified using the widths of amphibole breakdown rims in natural samples, using an experimental calibration of rim development in a similar magma at relevant conditions. The majority of rims are 34 ± 10 μm thick, suggesting a time-integrated magma ascent rate of 0.004–0.006 m/s among all four dome lobes. This is comparable to values for effusive samples from the 1980 Mount St. Helens eruption and slightly faster than those estimated at Montserrat. A gap between the compositions of plagioclase phenocryst cores and microlites suggests that while phenocryst growth was continuous throughout ascent, microlite formation did not occur until significantly into ascent. The duration of crystallization is estimated using the magma reservoir depth and ascent rate, as determined from phase equilibria and amphibole rim widths, respectively. Textural analysis of the natural plagioclase crystals yields maximum growth rates of plagioclase phenocryst rims and groundmass microlites of 8.7 × 10^− 8 and 2.5 × 10^− 8 mm/s, respectively. These rates are comparable to values determined from time-sequenced samples of dacite erupted effusively from Mount St. Helens during 1980 and indicate that syneruptive crystallization processes were important during the Black Butte eruptive cycle.  相似文献   

珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶元素成分的监测及分析   总被引：9，自引：8，他引：9  

张仁健  邹捍  王明星  周立波  朱光华 《高原气象》2001,20(3):234-238

对珠穆朗玛峰地区大气气溶胶化学民分进行了观测和分析。初步分析结果表明，珠峰地区大气气溶胶以Al,Ca,Si,K,Fe等地壳元素为主，地壳元素占总元素浓度的82％以上。S,Pb等与人类活动影响有关的污染元素含量很低。元素S浓度为91．64ng.m^-3，元素Pb浓度仅为2．93ng.m^-3，接近于格陵兰地区的浓度，从气富集因子来看，来自地壳成分元素的富集因子要小于北京地区。而As,Pb等与人类活动有关的气溶胶元素的富集因子也比北京地区低得多。研究表明，人类活动对珠峰地区的影响很小。  相似文献   

生态旅游胜地—九顶山   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

廖声萍  郭建强 《四川地质学报》2001,21(4):241-245

对九顶山的生物景观，水体景观，地质遗迹景观，天然气景观和人文景观等方面进行了详尽的描述，并划分出平水河景区，云湖景区，楠木沟景区，紫岩山景区，白云山景区，仙女洞景区和天池景区等七个景区，从科学性，美学性，文化性以及区位条件和功能方面对景观进行了评述。进而提出了开发的初步构想。  相似文献   

黄山第四纪泥砾沉积物的成因分析   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：8  

周秉根  李刚 《冰川冻土》1992,14(4):360-365

  相似文献   

Mascali,Mount Etna Region Sicily: An Example of Fascist Planning During the 1928 Eruption and Its Continuing Legacy     

Chester  David K.  Duncan  Angus M.  Dibben  Christopher  Guest  John E.  Lister  Philip H. 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(1):29-46

The 1928 eruption of Etna, Sicily, although the largest such event this century, has not been studied in detail. In this paper the nature of the eruption, the destruction it caused – including the complete devastation of the town of Mascali (pre-eruption population 2,000) – and emergency responses of the authorities to it are reviewed in the context of fascist politics and planning priorities. It is contended that, although at one level the response to the 1928 eruption was successful, at another fascism merely continued and enhanced a reactive, propitiatory approach to hazard mitigation. We argue that this legacy was not successfully overcome until the middle of the nineteen eighties. Finally contemporary Italian moves towards a more proactive approach to disaster planning, both generally and in the context of Etna, are discussed.  相似文献   

The 1999 and 2000 eruptions of Mount Cameroon: eruption behaviour and petrochemistry of lava     

C.?E.?Suh  S.?N.?Ayonghe  R.?S.?J.?SparksEmail author  C.?Annen  J.?G.?Fitton  R.?Nana  A.?Luckman 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(4):267-281

Mount Cameroon (4,095 m high and with a volume of ~1,200 km³) is one of the most active volcanoes in Africa, having erupted seven times in the last 100 years. This stratovolcano of basanite and hawaiite lavas has an elliptical shape, with over a hundred cones around its flanks and summit region aligned parallel to its NE--SW-trending long axis. The 1999 (28 March–22 April) eruption was restricted to two sites: ~2,650 m (site 1) and ~1,500 m (site 2). Similarly, in the eruption in 2000 (28 May–19 June), activity occurred at two sites: ~4,095 m (site 1) and ~3,300 m (site 2). During both eruptions, the higher vents were more explosive, with strombolian activity, while the lower vents were more effusive. Accordingly, most of the lava (~8×10⁷ m³ in 1999 and ~6×10⁶ m³ in 2000) was emitted from the lower sites. The 1999–2000 lavas are predominantly basanites with low Ni (5–79 ppm), Cr (40–161 ppm) and mg numbers (34–40). Olivine (Fo_77–85, phenocrysts and Fo_68–72, microlites), clinopyroxene (Wo₄₇En₄₁Fs₁₀ to Wo₅₁En₃₄Fs₁₅), plagioclase (An_49–67) and titanomagnetite are the principal phenocryst and groundmass phases. The lavas contain xenocrysts of olivine and clinopyroxene, which are interpreted as fragments of intrusive rocks disrupted by magma ascent. Major and trace element characteristics point to early fractionation of olivine. The clinopyroxenes (Al₂O₃ 1.36–7.83 wt%) have high Al^iv/Al^vi ratios (1.3–1.8) and are rich in TiO₂, characteristics typical of low pressure clinopyroxenes. Geochemical differences between the 1999–2000 lavas and those from previous eruptions, such as higher Nb/Zr of the former, suggest that different eruptions discharged magmas that evolved differently in space and time. Geophysical and petrological data indicate that these fractionated magmas originated just below the geophysical Moho (at 20–22 km) in the lithospheric mantle. During ascent, the magmas disrupted intrusions and earlier magma pockets. The main ascent path is below the summit, where newly arrived magma degasses. Degassed magma simultaneously intrudes the flank rift zones where most lava is extruded.An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Was a dacite dome implicated in the 9,500 <Emphasis Type="SmallCaps">b.p.</Emphasis> collapse of Mt Ruapehu? A palaeomagnetic investigation     

Elizabeth?McClellandEmail author  Patrick?S.?Erwin 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2003,65(4):294-305

Constraining the process by which volcanoes become unstable is difficult. Several models have been proposed to explain the driving forces which cause volcanic edifices to catastrophically collapse. These include models for destabilisation of volcanic flanks by wedging due to dyke intrusion and the weakening of mechanical properties by pressurisation of pore fluids. It is not known which, if any, of the models are relevant to particular sector collapse events. Recent developments in the palaeomagnetic estimation of emplacement temperatures of volcaniclastic rocks have shown that even relatively low emplacement temperatures can be recorded by volcaniclastics with high fidelity. We have carried out a palaeomagnetic study of emplacement temperatures to investigate the role of igneous activity in the initiation of the 9,500 b.p. Murimotu sector collapse of Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand. This debris avalanche deposit has three fades which are stratigraphically superimposed, and the lowermost fades contains three lithological assemblages representing different segments of the edifice which were transported with little internal mixing within the flow. We have determined that some of the dacite-bearing assemblage 1, fades 1 was hot (∼350 °C) during transport and emplacement, whereas none of the other lithological assemblages of fades contained hot material. Our interpretation is that a dacite dome was active on the ancient Ruapehu edifice immediately prior to the Murimotu sector collapse. The partially cooled carapace of the dome and material shed from this part was incorporated into the avalanche deposit, along with cold lavas and volcaniclastics. We have not found evidence for incorporation of material at or close to magmatic temperatures, at least in the sampled locations. Our palaeomagnetic work allows us to develop a comprehensive, new palaeomagnetic classification of volcaniclastics. Published online: 25 January 2003 Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell  相似文献   

Characterization of volcanic thermal anomalies by means of sub-pixel temperature distribution analysis     

Valerio Lombardo  Maria Fabrizia Buongiorno  Stefania Amici 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2006,68(7-8):641-651

The simultaneous solution of the Planck equation (involving the widely used “dual-band” technique) using two shortwave infrared (SWIR) bands allows for an estimate of the fractional area of the hottest part of an active lava flow (f _h) and the background temperature of the cooler crust (T _c). The use of a high spectral and spatial resolution imaging spectrometer with a wide dynamic range of 15 bits (DAIS 7915) in the wavelength range from 0.501 to 12.67 μm resulted in the identification of crustal temperature and fractional areas for an intra-crater hot spot at Mount Etna, Italy. This study indicates the existence of a relationship between these T _c and f _h extracted from DAIS and Landsat TM data. When the dual band equation system is performed on a lava flow, a logarithmic distribution is obtained from a plot of the fractional area of the hottest temperature vs. the temperature of the cooler crust. An entirely different distribution is obtained over active degassing vents, where increases in T _c occur without any increase in f _h. This result indicates that we can use scatter plots of T _c vs. fh to discriminate between different types of volcanic activity, in this case between degassing vents and lava flows, using satellite thermal data.  相似文献   

珠穆朗玛峰北坡山谷太阳辐射和大气的特征与分析   总被引：1，自引：4，他引：1  

白建辉  邹捍  李爱国  马舒坡  贾京京  李鹏  王维  霍翠萍 《高原气象》2007,26(6):1162-1172

2006年5月27日～6月30日HEST2006大气科学实验对珠峰北坡山谷的辐射(总辐射、净辐射)和温、湿度、风等进行了综合观测.沿珠峰北坡山谷布设了3个观测站,3个测站的辐射、温度、风都表现出明显的日变化规律,它们在08:00或09:00(地方时,下同)达到极大值.3个测站总辐射和净辐射的日变化都七匕较一致.从日变化最大值出现的时间来看,各站的辐射通量早于气温,气温早于风速.3个测站中任意2站之间辐射(总辐射、净辐射)最大值之比与温度和风速最大值之比均比较接近.因辐射状况、地形结构、大气温度等不同,远离珠峰区域的风一天之内多次改变风向,靠近珠峰区域则24h都为南风.珠峰北坡山谷不同区域风向风速变化存在明显时差,南风强于北风,且持续时间长.研究表明,辐射能量对于珠峰北坡大气运动具有重要的驱动作用,是控制和改变其大气运动方式最基本、最重要的因子.净辐射在不同区域风向转变或风速变化过程中起着决定性的作用.  相似文献