Stochastic analysis of the effect of heterogeneity and fractures on radionuclide transport in a low-permeability clay layer   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marijke Huysmans  Alain Dassargues 《Environmental Geology》2005,48(7):920-930

Deep low-permeability clay layers are considered as safe environments for disposal of high-level radioactive waste. In Belgium, the Boom Clay is a candidate host rock for deep geological disposal. In this study, we analyze the effects of fractures and spatially variable hydraulic conductivity on radionuclide migration through the clay. Fracture geometry and properties are simulated with Monte Carlo simulation. The heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity is simulated by direct sequential co-simulation using measurements of hydraulic conductivity and four types of secondary variables. The hydraulic conductivity and fracture simulations are used as input for a transport model. Radionuclide fluxes computed with this heterogeneous model are compared with fluxes obtained with a homogeneous model. The output fluxes of the heterogeneous model differ at most 8% from the homogeneous model. The main safety function of the Boom Clay is thus not affected by the fractures and the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity.  相似文献   

From well-test data to input to stochastic continuum models: effect of the variable support scale of the hydraulic data     

Magnus Odén  Auli Niemi 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(8):1409-1422

The question of how well the true underlying hydraulic conductivity statistics of heterogeneous media are captured by well tests is addressed. The hydraulic conductivity value and the corresponding support volume associated with a theoretical well are correlated, causing a bias in the statistics derived from well-test analyses. Statistics derived from numerically simulated well tests are compared with the known underlying conductivity statistics and the results indicate an under-prediction by simulations at higher hydraulic conductivities. The deviation starts at about mean conductivity and can be as large as an order of magnitude, with the conductivity in the vicinity of the well defining the upper boundary. In other words, the conductivity value interpreted from the well test cannot be larger than the value that the well test first encounters. Consequently, for data in this simulation exercise, the standard deviation, if only determined for the upper range of the conductivity values, would be underestimated by a factor of 1.6–2. While this specific range is likely to depend on the scale and degree of the underlying heterogeneity as well as the duration of the test, the results should be indicative of a more general behaviour and are likely to occur in other heterogeneous data as well.

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Resumen Se plantea la pregunta de qué tan bien son representadas en las pruebas de pozo, las estadísticas reales de conductividad hidráulica subyacente de medios heterogéneos. Son correlacionados el valor de conductividad hidráulica y el volumen de apoyo correspondiente asociado con un pozo teórico, causando una distorsión en las estadísticas derivadas del análisis de la prueba de pozo. Las estadísticas derivadas de las pruebas de pozo simuladas numéricamente son comparadas con las estadísticas de conductividad subyacente conocidas, y los resultados indican una sub-predicción por las simulaciones hechas con conductividades hidráulicas más altas. La desviación empieza casi con la conductividad media y puede ser tan grande como un orden de magnitud, con la conductividad en la vecindad del pozo definiendo el límite superior. En otras palabras, el valor de conductividad interpretado a partir de la prueba del pozo no puede ser más grande que el valor que la prueba de pozo encuentre primero. Por consiguiente, para los datos en este ejercicio de simulación, la desviación estándar, si solamente fue determinada para el rango superior de los valores de conductividad, se subestimaría en un factor de 1.6–2. Mientras es probable que este rango específico dependa de la escala y del grado de la heterogeneidad subyacente, así como de la duración de la prueba, los resultados deben ser indicativos de un comportamiento más general y son probables también de ocurrir en otros datos heterogéneos.

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Résumé Nous posons ici la question de savoir dans quelle mesure les statistiques de la conductivité hydraulique des milieux hétérogènes pourrait être révélée par des essais de puits. La valeur de la conductivité hydraulique et le volume capté correspondant sont corrélés, créant un biais dans l’analyse des statistiques dérivées des essais de puits. Les statistiques en provenance de simulations numériques d’essais de puits sont comparées avec les statistiques de conductivités connues et les résultats indiquent une sous-évaluation par les simulations, pour les conductivités hydrauliques les plus élevées: la déviation commence à partir de la valeur moyenne de la conductivité et peut atteindre la magnitude d’un ordre de grandeur en considérant la conductivité mesurée au voisinage du puits. Autrement dit, la valeur de la conductivité interprétée via l’essais de pompage ne peut être plus importante que les premières valeurs rencontrées. Par conséquence, pour les données de cet exercice de simulation, la déviation standard sera sous-estimée d’un facteur compris entre 1.6–2 pour les valeurs les plus élevées. Tandis que l’échelle spécifique de valeurs est dépendante de l’échelle et du degré de l’hétérogénéité souterraine, de même que de la durée du test, les résultats pourraient être indicatifs d’un comportement plus général et seraient sans doute observables dans d’autres cas de données hétérogènes.

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Stochastic analysis of the effect of spatial variability of diffusion parameters on radionuclide transport in a low permeability clay layer   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Marijke Huysmans  Alain Dassargues 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(7):1094-1106

Most studies that incorporate subsurface heterogeneity in groundwater flow and transport models only analyze and simulate the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity. Heterogeneity of the other flow and transport parameters are usually neglected. This approach is often justified, but there are, however, cases in which disregarding the heterogeneity of the other flow and transport parameters can be questionable. In low permeability media, for instance, diffusion is often the dominant transport mechanism. It therefore seems logical to incorporate the spatial variability of the diffusion parameters in the transport model. This study therefore analyses and simulates the spatial variability of the effective diffusion coefficient and the diffusion accessible porosity with geostatistical techniques and incorporates their heterogeneity in the transport model of a low permeability formation. The formation studied was Boom clay (Belgium), a candidate host rock for the deep geological disposal of high-level radioactive waste. The calculated output radionuclide fluxes of this model are compared with the fluxes calculated with a homogeneous model and a model with a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity distribution. This analysis shows that the heterogeneity of the diffusion parameters has a much larger effect on the calculated output radionuclide fluxes than the heterogeneity of hydraulic conductivity in the low permeability medium under study.  相似文献   

Comparing the robustness of ordinary kriging and lognormal kriging: Outlier resistance   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

M. Armstrong  A. Boufassa 《Mathematical Geology》1988,20(4):447-457

Ordinary kriging is well-known to be optimal when the data have a multivariate normal distribution (and if the variogram is known), whereas lognormal kriging presupposes the multivariate lognormality of the data. But in practice, real data never entirely satisfy these assumptions. In this article, the sensitivity of these two kriging estimators to departures from these assumptions and in particular, their resistance to outliers is considered. An outlier effect index designed to assess the effect of a single outlier on both estimators is proposed, which can be extended to other types of estimators. Although lognormal kriging is sensitive to slight variations in the sill of the variogram of the logs (i.e., their variance), it is not influenced by the estimate of the mean of the logs.This paper was presented at MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 14 April 1987.  相似文献   

Spatial prediction of categorical variables: the Bayesian maximum entropy approach   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

P. Bogaert 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2002,16(6):425-448

 Being a non-linear method based on a rigorous formalism and an efficient processing of various information sources, the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) approach has proven to be a very powerful method in the context of continuous spatial random fields, providing much more satisfactory estimates than those obtained from traditional linear geostatistics (i.e., the various kriging techniques). This paper aims at presenting an extension of the BME formalism in the context of categorical spatial random fields. In the first part of the paper, the indicator kriging and cokriging methods are briefly presented and discussed. A special emphasis is put on their inherent limitations, both from the theoretical and practical point of view. The second part aims at presenting the theoretical developments of the BME approach for the case of categorical variables. The three-stage procedure is explained and the formulations for obtaining prior joint distributions and computing posterior conditional distributions are given for various typical cases. The last part of the paper consists in a simulation study for assessing the performance of BME over the traditional indicator (co)kriging techniques. The results of these simulations highlight the theoretical limitations of the indicator approach (negative probability estimates, probability distributions that do not sum up to one, etc.) as well as the much better performance of the BME approach. Estimates are very close to the theoretical conditional probabilities, that can be computed according to the stated simulation hypotheses.  相似文献   

Geostatistical analyses of interactions between killer whales (Orcinus orca) and recreational whale-watching boats     

D. E. Jelinski  C. C. Krueger  D. A. Duffus 《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2002,22(4)

Johnstone Strait in coastal British Columbia, Canada, is a core habitat for seasonal concentrations of killer whales (Orcinus orca), which have attracted considerable attention from commercial whale-watching operators and recreational boaters. Within the Strait lies the Robson Bight–Michael Bigg Ecological Reserve, a marine reserve set aside as critical habitat for killer whales and closed to recreational boat traffic. The geography of encounters between killer whales and seven types of whale-watching vessels (including kayaks, charter and pleasure craft) in and near this reserve was analysed with a suite of geostatistics in a geographic information system (GIS) vector environment. Reserve boundary violation was high among most user groups, with kayakers being the most frequent offenders. Motorized vessels had significantly longer contact times with whales compared to kayaks and sailboats. Motorized vessels showed the travel characteristic of deliberate tracking of whales. The movements of killer whales also appear to be affected by boats. These results have important implications for killer whale conservation and management in areas where they are subject to intensive whale-watching activities, and possible chronic disturbance.  相似文献   

Estimation of regionalized phenomena by geostatistical methods: lake acidity on the Canadian Shield     

C. Bellehumeur  D. Marcotte  P. Legendre 《Environmental Geology》2000,39(3-4):211-220

 This paper describes a geostatistical technique based on conditional simulations to assess confidence intervals of local estimates of lake pH values on the Canadian Shield. This geostatistical approach has been developed to deal with the estimation of phenomena with a spatial autocorrelation structure among observations. It uses the autocorrelation structure to derive minimum-variance unbiased estimates for points that have not been measured, or to estimate average values for new surfaces. A survey for lake water chemistry has been conducted by the Ministère de l'Environnement du Québec between 1986 and 1990, to assess surface water quality and delineate the areas affected by acid precipitation on the southern Canadian Shield in Québec. The spatial structure of lake pH was modeled using two nested spherical variogram models, with ranges of 20 km and 250 km, accounting respectively for 20% and 55% of the spatial variation, plus a random component accounting for 25%. The pH data have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations that produce plausible realizations of a given random function model, while 'honoring' the experimental values (i.e., the real data points are among the simulated data), and that correspond to the same underlying variogram model. Post-processing of a large number of these simulations, that are equally likely to occur, enables the estimation of mean pH values, the proportion of affected lakes (lakes with pH≤5.5), and the potential error of these parameters within small regions (100 km×100 km). The method provides a procedure to establish whether acid rain control programs will succeed in reducing acidity in surface waters, allowing one to consider small areas with particular physiographic features rather than large drainage basins with several sources of heterogeneity. This judgment on the reduction of surface water acidity will be possible only if the amount of uncertainty in the estimation of mean pH is properly quantified. Received: 3 March 1997 · Accepted: 16 November 1998  相似文献   

储层地质建模的现状与展望   总被引：24，自引：0，他引：24  

吴胜和  李宇鹏 《海相油气地质》2007,12(3):53-60

储层地质建模对于科学的油藏评价、油藏开发管理以及三维油藏数值模拟具有很大的意义。目前已有的建模算法和商业软件可满足地质特征三维分布的图形要求,并可进行初步的井间预测,但预测精度有待于进一步提高。简要介绍了各种建模方法研究现状,分析了已有算法中亟需改进的问题,并从建模算法的改进、原型模型的丰富、地震信息的整合以及加强地质约束等方面论述了储层地质建模的发展前景。  相似文献   

Reducing geological uncertainty by conditioning on boreholes: the coupled Markov chain approach     

Amro M. M. Elfeki  F. M. Dekking 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(8):1439-1455

The CMC (coupled Markov chain) model, which is based on the extension of Markov chains in two-dimensions, is used in the reduction of uncertainty in geological structures when conditioned (i.e., honours the data and their location) on a number of boreholes. The model has been applied to an unconsolidated aquifer deposit located in the central Rhine-Meuse delta (the Gorkum study area) in the Netherlands. A comparison is also made between the CMC and the SIS (sequential indicator simulation) model, which is based on Kriging and co-Kriging theories on the same deposit. The results show the potential applicability of the CMC model in reducing the uncertainty in geological configurations when a sufficient number of boreholes is available. Reproduction of the global geological features requires relatively few boreholes (in this case study, nine boreholes with 30-m spacing over a distance of 240 m). However, reproduction of the proportion of each state requires a relatively large number of boreholes (in this case study 31 boreholes with 8-m spacing over a distance of 240 m). It has been shown that variograms can be deceptive in modeling the spatial pattern and that they reflect only part of the complete spatial structure in the field. The use of transition probabilities via the CMC model provides a better alternative approach, because it uses multiple point information. Amro M. M. Elfeki on leave from Department of Irrigation and Hydraulics, Faculty of Engineering, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt  相似文献   

Transmissivity estimation for highly heterogeneous aquifers: comparison of three methods applied to the Edwards Aquifer,Texas, USA     

Scott L. Painter  Allan D. Woodbury  Yefang Jiang 《Hydrogeology Journal》2007,15(2):315-331

Obtaining reliable hydrological input parameters is a key challenge in groundwater modeling. Although many quantitative characterization techniques exist, experience applying these techniques to highly heterogeneous real-world aquifers is limited. Three geostatistical characterization techniques are applied to the Edwards Aquifer, a limestone aquifer in south-central Texas, USA, for the purposes of quantifying the performance in an 88,000-cell groundwater model. The first method is a simple kriging of existing hydraulic conductivity data developed primarily from single-well tests. The second method involves numerical upscaling to the grid-block scale, followed by cokriging the grid-block conductivity. In the third method, the results of the second method are used to establish the prior distribution for a Bayesian updating calculation. Results of kriging alone are biased towards low values and fail to reproduce hydraulic heads or spring flows. The upscaling/cokriging approach removes most of the systematic bias. The Bayesian update reduced the mean residual by more than a factor of 10, to 6 m, approximately 2.5% of the total head variation in the aquifer. This agreement demonstrates the utility of automatic calibration techniques based on formal statistical approaches and lends further support for using the Bayesian updating approach for highly heterogeneous aquifers.  相似文献