IPCC emission scenarios: How did critiques affect their quality and relevance 1990–2022?     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Long-term global emission scenarios enable the analysis of future climate change, impacts, and response strategies by providing insight into possible future developments and linking these different climate research elements. Such scenarios play a crucial role in the climate change literature informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Assessment Reports (ARs) and support policymakers. This article reviews the evolution of emission scenarios, since 1990, by focusing on scenario critiques and responses as published in the literature. We focus on the issues raised in the critiques and the possible impact on scenario development. The critique (280) focuses on four areas: 1) key scenario assumptions (40%), 2) the emissions range covered by the scenarios and missing scenarios (25%), 3) methodological issues (24%), and 4) the policy relevance and handling of uncertainty (11%). Scenario critiques have become increasingly influential since 2000. Some areas of critique have decreased or become less prominent (probability, development process, convergence assumptions, and economic metrics). Other areas have become more dominant over time (e.g., policy relevance & implications of scenarios, transparency, Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) assumptions, missing scenarios). Several changes have been made in developing scenarios and their content that respond to the critique.  相似文献   

不同岩性盐湖沉积物中挥发性有机质的特征          下载免费PDF全文

卢晓航  韩凤清  易磊  马喆  张光武  陈富洪 《盐湖研究》2021,29(1):18-24

通过不同岩性盐湖沉积物中C/N值,确定其有机质的来源均为藻类,然后采用气相色谱—离子迁移谱(GC-IMS)联用技术对不同岩性盐湖沉积物中的挥发性有机质进行了研究.结果显示,不同岩性沉积物的挥发性有机质虽然来源相同,但是其种类和含量存在显著差异.在砂岩沉积物中,检测出16种挥发性有机质,而石盐中共检测出30种挥发性有机质...  相似文献   

叶片生化组分浓度对单叶光谱影响研究——以2100nm吸收特征的碳氮比反演为例   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

施润和  牛铮  庄大方 《遥感学报》2005,9(1):1-7

运用连续统去除法和波深归一化方法对构成植物叶片碳氮比的基本因素——总碳和总氮浓度进行深入研究,对其组成物质的浓度差异在2030—2220nm区间内光谱响应的物理机制进行深入分析。在对多组典型叶片的对比分析后发现,经连续统去除后的相对反射率光谱中可以明显观察到碳、氮浓度差异造成的影响,而其影响与纤维素、木质素和蛋白质在此范围的吸收特征密切相关。其中,以纤维素和木质素为代表的碳浓度的影响主要体现在2030—2050nm区间,而以蛋白质为代表的氮浓度的影响则体现在2054nm和2172nm附近存在的斜率突变上。另外利用波深归一化方法再次证明了氮浓度对2054nm和2172nm处光谱特征的影响,进一步证实蛋白质双峰特征在光谱上的响应,并通过相关分析和回归分析验证了相对反射率光谱与碳氮比之间的定量关系。  相似文献