SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

北秦岭晋宁期中酸性侵入岩带地球化学特征与构造环境     

杨吉 《地球科学与环境学报》2003,25(3):16-20

北秦岭侵入岩带中的中酸性侵入岩主要形成于晋宁旋回的中晚期阶段。主要岩石类型包括辉石闪长岩、闪长岩、石英闪长岩、英云闪长岩、花岗闪长岩、斜长花岗岩、花岗岩和钾长花岗岩。岩石化学、稀土元素和微量元素地球化学研究证明,这些岩石主要形成于B型俯冲和碰撞造山的构造环境中,而钾长花岗岩形成于后造山的伸展阶段。据此,该侵入岩带揭示了北秦岭褶皱带在晋宁旋回中晚期阶段的演化过程。  相似文献   

模糊划分矩阵在岩土参数概率分布中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘明  熊彩霞  马金荣 《地球科学与环境学报》2002,24(4):38-41

讨论如何在小样本条件下用已有的过程经验与试验资料确定岩土参数概率分布,用模糊划分矩阵与BAYES方法相结合,给出由小样本试验数据确定岩土参数的概率分布。  相似文献   

褶皱岩层初始挠曲的分叉特性     

杨成永  陈至达  杨锡禄 《大地测量与地球动力学》1995,(3)

基于拖带坐标法建立了岩层大变形的一维非线性微分方程，然后用解析与数值方法研究了变刚度、可伸缩岩层在侧向压力及自重作用下的分叉特性，初步揭示了褶皱岩层初始挠曲的形成机理。  相似文献   

Upscaling of elastic properties for large scale geomechanical simulations     

F. Chalon  M. Mainguy  P. Longuemare  P. Lemonnier 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2004,28(11):1105-1119

Large scale geomechanical simulations are being increasingly used to model the compaction of stress dependent reservoirs, predict the long term integrity of under‐ground radioactive waste disposals, and analyse the viability of hot‐dry rock geothermal sites. These large scale simulations require the definition of homogenous mechanical properties for each geomechanical cell whereas the rock properties are expected to vary at a smaller scale. Therefore, this paper proposes a new methodology that makes possible to define the equivalent mechanical properties of the geomechanical cells using the fine scale information given in the geological model. This methodology is implemented on a synthetic reservoir case and two upscaling procedures providing the effective elastic properties of the Hooke's law are tested. The first upscaling procedure is an analytical method for perfectly stratified rock mass, whereas the second procedure computes lower and upper bounds of the equivalent properties with no assumption on the small scale heterogeneity distribution. Both procedures are applied to one geomechanical cell extracted from the reservoir structure. The results show that the analytical and numerical upscaling procedures provide accurate estimations of the effective parameters. Furthermore, a large scale simulation using the homogenized properties of each geomechanical cell calculated with the analytical method demonstrates that the overall behaviour of the reservoir structure is well reproduced for two different loading cases. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Numerical prediction of blast‐induced stress wave from large‐scale underground explosion     

Chengqing Wu  Yong Lu  Hong Hao 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2004,28(1):93-109

This paper presents a numerical model for predicting the dynamic response of rock mass subjected to large‐scale underground explosion. The model is calibrated against data obtained from large‐scale field tests. The Hugoniot equation of state for rock mass is adopted to calculate the pressure as a function of mass density. A piecewise linear Drucker–Prager strength criterion including the strain rate effect is employed to model the rock mass behaviour subjected to blast loading. A double scalar damage model accounting for both the compression and tension damage is introduced to simulate the damage zone around the charge chamber caused by blast loading. The model is incorporated into Autodyn3D through its user subroutines. The numerical model is then used to predict the dynamic response of rock mass, in terms of the peak particle velocity (PPV) and peak particle acceleration (PPA) attenuation laws, the damage zone, the particle velocity time histories and their frequency contents for large‐scale underground explosion tests. The computed results are found in good agreement with the field measured data; hence, the proposed model is proven to be adequate for simulating the dynamic response of rock mass subjected to large‐scale underground explosion. Extended numerical analyses indicate that, apart from the charge loading density, the stress wave intensity is also affected, but to a lesser extent, by the charge weight and the charge chamber geometry for large‐scale underground explosions. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Exposure dating and reinterpretation of coarse debris accumulations (‘rock glaciers’) in the Cairngorm Mountains,Scotland     

Colin K. Ballantyne  Christoph Schnabel  Sheng Xu 《第四纪科学杂志》2009,24(1):19-31

Relict rock glaciers have considerable potential for contributing to palaeoclimatic reconstruction, but this potential is often undermined by lack of dating control and problems of interpretation. Here we reinvestigate and date four proposed ‘rock glaciers’ in the Cairngorm Mountains and show that the morphology of only one of these appears consistent with that of a true rock glacier produced by creep of underlying ice or ice‐rich sediment. All four features comprise rockslide or rock avalanche runout debris, and the possibility that all four represent unmodified runout accumulations cannot be discounted. Surface exposure dating of the four debris accumulations using cosmogenic ¹⁰Be produced uncertainty‐weighted mean ages of 15.4 ± 0.8 ka, 16.2 ± 1.0 ka, 12.1 ± 0.6 ka and 12.7 ± 0.8 ka. All four ages imply emplacement under cold stadial conditions, two prior to the Windermere Interstade of ca. 14.5–12.9 cal. ka BP and two during the Loch Lomond Stade of ca. 12.9–11.5 cal. ka BP. The above ages indicate that paraglacial rock‐slope failure on granite rockwalls occurred within a few millennia after deglaciation. The mean exposure ages obtained for runout debris at two sites – Strath Nethy (16.2 ± 1.0 ka) and Lairig Ghru (15.4 ± 0.8 ka) – are consistent with basal radiocarbon ages from Loch Etteridge, 22 km to the southwest (mean = 15.6 ± 0.3 cal. ka BP) and imply widespread deglaciation of the Cairngorms and adjacent valleys before 15 ka and possibly 16 ka. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Contribution of storms to groundwater recharge in the semi‐arid region of Karnataka,India     

K. Shivanna  U. P. Kulkarni  T. B. Joseph  S. V. Navada 《水文研究》2004,18(3):473-485

This paper describes the application of environmental isotopes and injected tracer techniques in estimating the contribution of storms as well as annual precipitation to groundwater recharge and its circulation, in the semi‐arid region of Bagepalli, Kolar district, Karnataka. Environmental isotopes ²H, ¹⁸O and ³H were used to study the effect of storms on the hydrological system, and an isotope balance was used to compute the contribution of a storm component to the groundwater. Some of the groundwater samples collected during the post‐storm periods were highly depleted in stable isotope content with higher deuterium excess relative to groundwater from the pre‐storm periods. Significant variation in deuterium excess in groundwater from the same area, collected in two different periods, indicates the different origin of air masses. The estimated recharge component of a storm event of 600 mm to the groundwater was found to be in the range of 117–165 mm. There was no significant variation in environmental tritium content of post‐storm and pre‐storm groundwater, indicating the fast circulation of groundwater in the system. After completion of the environmental isotope work, an injected radiotracer ³H technique was applied to estimate the direct recharge of total precipitation to the groundwater. The estimated recharge to the groundwater is 33 mm of the 550 mm annual precipitation during 1992. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

HYDROLOGIC SERIES CHARACTERISTICSANALYSIS OF THE MAJOR RIVERS AROUNDTHE TAKLIMAKAN DESERT     

许有鹏  杨戊 《中国地理科学(英文版)》1997,(1)

I.IN~crIOXLocatedinthecoddlepatofTallmBasin,withanareaof33.76X104klnZ,theTaldirnakan~isinthehinterlandofEurasia.Blockedbythehighmountainsaround,vapourofoceancanhardlyreachthedesert.APartfromthis,asthedeSertisinthesinkingcompensationareaoftheascensionalaircurrentaamstheQinghal-XIZangPlateau,itSprecipitationisrareandtheevaporationcapacityisintensealltheyearround.Allthesecontributetotheformationsofthetypifydrydesertclimate.Theacidityindexofthedesertandthearoundregionisashighasmorethan50,w…  相似文献   

A new stereo‐analytical method for determination of removal blocks in discontinuous rock masses     

Zixin Zhang  P. H. S. W. Kulatilake 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2003,27(10):791-811

The paper provides a new stereo‐analytical method, which is a combination of the stereographic method and analytical methods, to separate finite removable blocks from the infinite and tapered blocks in discontinuous rock masses. The methodology has applicability to both convex and concave blocks. Application of the methodology is illustrated through examples. Addition of this method to the existing block theory procedures available in the literature improves the capability of block theory in solving practical problems in rock engineering. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献