Probabilistic modeling of seismically triggered landslides using Monte Carlo simulations     

Huabin Wang  Gonghui Wang  Fawu Wang  Kyoji Sassa  Yuping Chen 《Landslides》2008,5(4):387-395

The 2004 Chuetsu earthquakes of Niigata (Japan) triggered numerous landslides, and the most widespread types of landslides were highly disrupted, relatively shallow slides and soil (debris) flows. This paper presented a method to evaluate slope instability using Newmark displacement on a pixel-by-pixel basis in a given area. The proposed method was able to integrate Newmark displacement modeling and Monte Carlo simulations within geographical information systems. In the modeling, an empirical attenuation relationship was utilized to calculate Arias intensity over this study area, and the variability of geotechnical parameters was taken into account to calculate coseismic landslide displacement. Before deriving the displacement from related inputs, the Monte Carlo simulations ran 1,500 times and generated 1,500 displacement values for each grid cell, and then means and standard deviations of displacement were calculated and probabilistic distributions can be obtained. Finally, given 10 cm as a threshold value of displacement, estimated probabilities of displacement exceeding 10 cm were shown as a map of seismic landslide hazards. The resulting hazard map was classified into four categories from very low to high level.  相似文献   

内蒙古桌子山煤田火区特征及灭火方法探讨     

田晓华 《中国煤炭地质》2008,(11):12-14

内蒙古自治区桌子山煤田赋存着较为稀缺的煤种一焦煤,煤田内存在的火区不仪烧掉了宝贵的焦性煤炭资源,给煤矿生产带来严重的事故隐患,对当地生态环境也造成极大的破坏。经查明区内有26处子火区,分布面积约760万m^2,通过煤田地质特征、煤质特征、地表指示特征、同位素氡气的浓度相对分布特征、物性特征分析了区内煤层发火原因,根据桌子山煤田火区特点,建议采用浅剥、深灌与覆盖相结合的灭火方法,并对火区进行动态监测。  相似文献   

深部矿产资源立体地球化学勘查方法技术体系     

史长义  王惠艳 《地质学报》2022,96(11):3705-3721

深部矿产资源的勘查是战略性矿产资源勘查的一个重要方面。找矿实践证明，化探方法技术在矿产勘查乃至深部找矿中发挥了重要的、不可或缺的作用。找矿工作的不断深入和找矿难度的不断加大，促使化探方法技术不断的发展和完善，在传统方法技术的基础上，研发出了许多新的方法技术。本文从方法论和系统论的角度出发，对现有的找寻深部隐伏矿盲矿的有效化探方法技术进行了系统的归纳和总结，提出了立体地球化学勘查方法技术体系的概念，将立体地球化学勘查方法技术划分为地面地球化学测量方法技术和地下地球化学测量方法技术，建立了深部矿产资源立体地球化学勘查方法技术体系。不同的方法技术有不同的优势和不同的适用条件，实际工作中应当根据不同的勘查阶段，不同的勘查目的和不同的地质地球化学条件选择不同的立体方法技术组合才能发挥出最大效益，取得最大效果。  相似文献   

地铁施工对济南白泉泉群流量的影响     

束龙仓  王小博  李虎  倪寒茜  李罡  余亚飞  王鑫  张曼琦 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):192-200

为研究地铁建设对济南白泉泉群的影响，在综合分析白泉泉域地质、水文地质条件的基础上，假定研究区岩溶强径流带位置及水力性质，利用FEFLOW软件建立地下水流数值模型。以规划地铁M1号线为研究对象，分析了济南东站、梁王站、梁王东站分别施工及3个站同时施工4种情景下，采用施工降水或施工降水+人工回灌两种施工方式对白泉泉群流量的影响。结果表明：单独采用施工降水的施工方式使得白泉泉群流量衰减，其中3个站同时施工对泉流量的影响最大，泉流量最大衰减达5.48%；各站分别施工时，济南东站对泉流量影响最大，泉流量较未施工时减少了0.043×10⁴ m³/d。采用施工降水+人工回灌的施工方式，能够有效缓解泉流量的衰减，各车站施工时的泉流量衰减由仅施工降水时的2.26%~5.48%降低至0.08%~1.21%。岩溶强径流带有利于地下水形成优势径流，促进白泉泉群补给，一定程度上缓解因地铁施工引起的泉流量衰减。  相似文献   

Numerical analysis of the symmetric methods     

Ji-Hong Xu  A-Li Zhang 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,225(2):289-297

Aimed at the initial value problem of the particular second-order ordinary differential equations,y =f(x, y), the symmetric methods (Quinlan and Tremaine, 1990) and our methods (Xu and Zhang, 1994) have been compared in detail by integrating the artificial earth satellite orbits in this paper. In the end, we point out clearly that the integral accuracy of numerical integration of the satellite orbits by applying our methods is obviously higher than that by applying the same order formula of the symmetric methods when the integration time-interval is not greater than 12000 periods.  相似文献   

Comparison of two methods for seismic hazard assessment in a low-seismicity area     

Th. De Crook  J. J. Egozcue 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(1):39-49

The EGO method, developed by Egozcue et al. and the SRAMSC method, originally developed by Cornell and later programmed by McGuire, to assess the seismic hazard, are compared for the low seismicity area Belgium, The Netherlands, and NW Germany. Using the same input data, the results of the EGO method without the majority criterion and the SRAMSC method with upper bound XII agree very well. The influence of the zoning is investigated for the EGO method. It is not necessary to define the zones for the EGO method so strictly as for the SRAMSC method, but too wide zones can give bad results.  相似文献   

Testing earthquake prediction methods: «The West Pacific short-term forecast of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8»     

V.G. Kossobokov   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):25

Analyzing the tables and probability maps posted by Yan Y. Kagan and David D. Jackson in April 2002–September 2004 at http://scec.ess.ucla.edu/~ykagan/predictions_index.html and the catalog of earthquakes for the same period, the conclusion is drawn that the underlying method could be used for prediction of aftershocks, while it does not outscore random guessing when main shocks are considered.  相似文献   

Geophysical methods applied to fault characterization and earthquake potential assessment in the Lower Tagus Valley, Portugal     

Joo Carvalho  Joo Cabral  Rui Gonalves  Luís Torres  Luís Mendes-Victor 《Tectonophysics》2006,418(3-4):277-297

The study region is located in the Lower Tagus Valley, central Portugal, and includes a large portion of the densely populated area of Lisbon. It is characterized by a moderate seismicity with a diffuse pattern, with historical earthquakes causing many casualties, serious damage and economic losses. Occurrence of earthquakes in the area indicates the presence of seismogenic structures at depth that are deficiently known due to a thick Cenozoic sedimentary cover. The hidden character of many of the faults in the Lower Tagus Valley requires the use of indirect methodologies for their study. This paper focuses on the application of high-resolution seismic reflection method for the detection of near-surface faulting on two major tectonic structures that are hidden under the recent alluvial cover of the Tagus Valley, and that have been recognized on deep oil-industry seismic reflection profiles and/or inferred from the surface geology. These are a WNW–ESE-trending fault zone located within the Lower Tagus Cenozoic basin, across the Tagus River estuary (Porto Alto fault), and a NNE–SSW-trending reverse fault zone that borders the Cenozoic Basin at the W (Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault). Vertical electrical soundings were also acquired over the seismic profiles and the refraction interpretation of the reflection data was carried out. According to the interpretation of the collected data, a complex fault pattern disrupts the near surface (first 400 m) at Porto Alto, affecting the Upper Neogene and (at least for one fault) the Quaternary, with a normal offset component. The consistency with the previous oil-industry profiles interpretation supports the location and geometry of this fault zone. Concerning the second structure, two major faults were detected north of Vila Franca de Xira, supporting the extension of the Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon fault zone northwards. One of these faults presents a reverse geometry apparently displacing Holocene alluvium. Vertical offsets of the Holocene sediments detected in the studied geophysical data of Porto Alto and Vila Franca de Xira–Lisbon faults imply minimum slip rates of 0.15–0.30 mm/year, three times larger than previously inferred for active faults in the Lower Tagus Valley and maximum estimates of average return periods of 2000–5000 years for M 6.5–7 co-seismic ruptures.  相似文献   

Discrete numerical modelling of rockfill dams   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

R. Deluzarche  B. Cambou 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2006,30(11):1075-1096

The aim of this study is to obtain quantitative information on the behaviour of rockfill used in embankment dams, and particularly on the influence of block breakage on the displacement field, from a numerical analysis using the Distinct element method. A methodology is set up to define the resistance of the 2D particles so that the same probability of breaking blocks may be reproduced as in a 3D material. The model uses the discrete element code PFC^2D (Itasca Consulting Group Inc., PFC2D (Particle Flow Code in Two Dimensions), Version 3.0, 2002) and considers breakable clusters of 2D balls. The different parameters are determined from experimental data obtained from laboratory tests performed on rock blocks. The model is validated by comparing the results of the simulation of shearing tests with actual triaxial tests on rockfill material published in the literature. The numerical analysis of block crushing in an actual dam is proposed in the last part of this paper. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Use of electrical resistivity methods for detecting subsurface fresh and saline water and delineating their interfacial configuration: a case study of the eastern Dead Sea coastal aquifers, Jordan     

Awni T. Batayneh 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(7):1277-1283

The alluvial aquifer is the primary source of groundwater along the eastern Dead Sea shoreline, Jordan. Over the last 20 years, salinity has risen in some existing wells and several new wells have encountered brackish water in areas thought to contain fresh water. A good linear correlation exists between the water resistivity and the chloride concentration of groundwater and shows that the salinity is the most important factor controlling resistivity. Two-dimensional electrical tomography (ET) integrated with geoelectrical soundings were employed to delineate different water-bearing formations and the configuration of the interface between them. The present hydrological system and the related brines and interfaces are controlled by the Dead Sea base level, presently at 410 m b.s.l. Resistivity measurements show a dominant trend of decreasing resistivity (thus increasing salinity) with depth and westward towards the Dead Sea. Accordingly, three zones with different resistivity values were detected, corresponding to three different water-bearing formations: (1) strata saturated with fresh to slightly brackish groundwater; (2) a transition zone of brine mixed with fresh to brackish groundwater; (3) a water-bearing formation containing Dead Sea brine. In addition, a low resistivity unit containing brine was detected above the 1955 Dead Sea base level, which was interpreted as having remained unflushed by infiltrating rain.  相似文献