基于贝叶斯网络的南水北调工程运行综合风险分析     

佘敦先  杨晓华  夏军 《资源与生态学报(英文版)》2010,1(3)

南水北调工程是目前我国最大的调水工程。随着工程的建设和运行,由不确定性问题引起的风险问题越来越受到关注,工程运行的风险分析也摆在管理者的面前,如何识别、评估、降低和控制风险的发生成为南水北调工程运行中的一个重要问题。本文首次将贝叶斯网络理论引入到南水北调综合风险分析中,选取东线工程宝应抽水泵站为研究对象,利用贝叶斯网络推理功能得出宝应站运行综合风险发生的概率为0.025%,风险发生的等级为"较低"。利用情景分析的方法,得出在影响综合风险的因素中,泵站的管理维护状况条件改变时,综合风险变化最大,因此需要予以重点关注。  相似文献   

关于三峡工程论证的意见和建议     

孙越崎  林华 《云南地理环境研究》1989,1(1):89-93

文章从多方面论证了三峡工程宜晚建不宜早建的观点:1.根据我国当前经济形势,三峡工程不宜早建;2.三峡工程所需庞大投资非当前国力所能承受;3.三峡工程存在一些难以解决的问题:(1)泥沙问题,(2)移民问题.(3)技术问题,(4)环境影响,(5)风险问题。作者提出了长江开发治理应当先支后干的建议,并就决策科学化和民主化问题展开了讨论。  相似文献   

“科钻一井”钻探施工技术概览   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

王达张伟 《中国地质》2005,32(2):184-194

文章介绍了中国第一个硬岩、深孔、连续取心钻探项目——中国大陆科学钻探工程科钻一井的钻探实施情况,涉及该井的钻探技术设计、钻孔结构和套管程序、进行取心钻进、扩孔钻进和纠斜钻进时采用的方法和技术。此外,还介绍了科钻一井的施工过程以及在钻进施工遇到的各种技术难题和采取的解决措施、获得的主要技术经济指标。总的来说,科钻一井施工采用了许多特殊和新型的钻探技术,施工获得了高效、优质和低成本的好效果。  相似文献   

土工膜应变计的研制及其应用(Ⅱ):应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

龚履华  李青云  包承纲 《岩土力学》2005,26(12):2035-2040

将研制的土工膜应变计应用于三峡工程二期上游围堰现场，以监测防渗土工膜在工程中产生的实际应变，并获得了满意的大应变监测成果。埋设于上游围堰不同高程的18支土工膜应变计，在较长时段内，不仅全部观测到防渗土工膜在施工阶段围堰填土碾压产生的应变规律，如0＋500断面的10支土工膜应变计均测得11％～19％的大应变值，而且大部份应变计一直工作到极限量程才损坏。其中除了0＋500断面因施工加载速率过快而导致防渗土工膜较早产生较大的变形，使得10支应变计在埋设后的施工填土3个多月内即陆续超量程损坏之外，其余的土工膜应变计工作寿命长达3年多。埋设于0＋500子堰和0＋930断面的土工膜应变计，在2000年和2001年夏季汛期中及汛期后，有些监测点的应变陡增到16％～20％之间，据此可以推测，此时该测点处的堰体产生了较大的变形。防渗土工膜的应变监测结果不仅与围堰构筑时的加载速率相关，并与围堰拆除时所发现的变形情况相吻合。  相似文献   

中国大陆科学钻探工程主孔0～2000米斜长片麻岩的地球化学性质及成因研究   总被引：3，自引：6，他引：3  

薛怀民  刘福来 《岩石学报》2005,21(2):355-368

在苏鲁-大别山造山带内,黑云斜长片麻岩习惯被称为副片麻岩,它也是中国大陆科学钻探工程主孔岩芯中一种重要岩石类型,不仅构成了孔深738-1113m之间斜长片麻岩岩性段的主体,在其它岩性段也有少量以“夹层”的形式产出。其中除少数斜长片麻岩可能是由榴辉岩经斜长角闪岩退变而来或由含泥质的沉积岩变质而来外,绝大多数斜长片麻岩的地球化学特征与现残存的扬子地台北缘晚元古代双峰式火山岩的酸性端元非常相似,指示它们的原岩可能类似于这些酸性火山碎屑岩-凝灰岩。斜长片麻岩中不同元素之间的相关性差别很大,这主要与超高压变质及随后的退变质过程中元素间活性的差异有关。其中SiO2、TiO2、Al2O3、FeO、CaO、Cr、Ni、V、Co、Fe、Mn、Cu、Zn、Sc等与MgO具明显相关性,它们与MgO一样属不活泼元素。重稀土元素及Y也属于不活泼元素。而K2O、Pb、Rb、Ba、U、Th等大离子亲石元素与MgO之间没有任何相关性,这些元素属活泼元素。Na2O、Sr、Nb、Ta、Zr、Hf等则介于两类之间,可视为准不活泼元素。LREE虽然有一定的活性,但即使是超高压变质作用,也没有从根本上改变稀土元素的分配模式,仍可有效地应用于对原岩性质的恢复。对比研究表明,斜长片麻岩与花岗片麻岩在地球化学性质上存在着明显的差异,其中前者的MgO、TiO2、CaO以及过渡元素的含量明显偏高,尤以低的K2O/Na2O和Rb/Sr比而明显不同于花岗片麻岩。此外,与花岗片麻岩强烈的负Eu异常(δEu=0.21-0.26)和Ba负异常不同,斜长片麻岩中Eu负异常的程度相对较弱(8Eu大于0.5),且总体表现为Ba正异常。绝大多数“副片麻岩”和花岗片麻岩(>90%)可以根据全岩的地球化学特征加以有效区分。  相似文献   

土工膜应变计的研制及其应用(II):应用     

龚履华  李青云  包承纲 《岩土力学》2005,(12)

将研制的土工膜应变计应用于三峡工程二期上游围堰现场,以监测防渗土工膜在工程中产生的实际应变,并获得了满意的大应变监测成果。埋设于上游围堰不同高程的18支土工膜应变计,在较长时段内,不仅全部观测到防渗土工膜在施工阶段围堰填土碾压产生的应变规律,如0 500断面的10支土工膜应变计均测得11%～19%的大应变值,而且大部份应变计一直工作到极限量程才损坏。其中除了0 500断面因施工加载速率过快而导致防渗土工膜较早产生较大的变形,使得10支应变计在埋设后的施工填土3个多月内即陆续超量程损坏之外,其余的土工膜应变计工作寿命长达3年多。埋设于0 500子堰和0 930断面的土工膜应变计,在2000年和2001年夏季汛期中及汛期后,有些监测点的应变陡增到16%～20%之间,据此可以推测,此时该测点处的堰体产生了较大的变形。防渗土工膜的应变监测结果不仅与围堰构筑时的加载速率相关,并与围堰拆除时所发现的变形情况相吻合。  相似文献   

横断面测图比例尺及断面间距对挖填工程量的精度影响     

耿汉文  徐加东 《现代测绘》2006,29(5):33-33,38

横断面测图比例尺及断面间距的选择，直接影响到挖填工程量的计算精度，本文通过对方量精度估算分析，提出了供设计人员和测绘人员参考的测量方案。  相似文献   

LONG-TERM EFFECTS OF THE GEZHOUBA PROJECT ON FLOOD PROPAGATION IN THE YANGTZE RIVER   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yaohua DONG  Ruilan YIN Senior engineer  Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute 《国际泥沙研究》2001,16(2)

A l-D numerical model of unsteady flow for river channel has been developed in the paPer. Based ontoPograPhy of l980 and field data of a flood occurred on July l2-25, l981 (,'8l.7" flood), caIculation ofthe "8l.7" flood rouhng has been imPlemented as calibration of the model. Using the same hydrographsof,'8l.7" flood and different toPograPhies of l980 and l993 respectively, processes and profiles ofhydrograps, variations and featores of flood traVel along the Yichang-Jianli river reaches h…  相似文献   

Organic geochemistry of Deep Sea Drilling Project sediments from the Gulf of Calofornia—hydrothermal effects on unconsolidated diatom ooze     

Bernd R.T. Simoneit  R.P. Philp  P.D. Jenden  E.M. Galimov 《Organic Geochemistry》1984,7(3-4)

The effects of intrusive thermal stress have been studied on a number of Pleistocene sediment samples obtained from Leg 64 of the DSDP-IPOD program in the Gulf of California. Samples were selected from Sites 477, 478 and 481 where the organic matter was subjected to thermal stress from sill intrusions. For comparison purposes, samples from Sites 474 and 479 were selected as representative of unaltered material.The GC and GC-MS data show that lipids of the thermally unaltered samples were derived from microbial and terrestrial higher-plant detritus. Samples from sill proximities were found to contain thermally-derived distillates and those adjacent to sills contained essentially no lipids. Curie point pyrolysis combined with GC and GC-MS was used to show that kerogens from the unaltered samples reflected their predominantly autochthonous microbial origin. Pyrograms of the altered kerogens were much less complex than the unaltered samples, reflecting the thermal effects. The kerogens adjacent to the sills produce little or no pyrolysis products since these intrusions into unconsolidated, wet sediments resulted in in situ pyrolysis of the organic matter.Examination of the kerogens by ESR showed that spin density and line width pass through a maximum during the course of alteration but ESR g-values show no correlation with maturity. Stable carbon isotope (δ¹³C) values of kerogens decrease by 1–1.5‰ near the sills at Sites 477 and 481 and the atomic N/C decreases slightly with proximity to a smaller sill at Site 478. Differences in maturation behavior between Site 477 and 481 and Site 478 are attributed to dissimilarities in thermal stress and to chemical and isotopic heterogeneity of Guaymas Basin protokerogen.  相似文献   

CMPI5多模式对南海上层海洋热含量的模拟比较     

王刚  林敏 《海洋学报(英文版)》2014,33(11):75-84

Seventeen models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5（CMIP5） activity are compared on their historical simulation of the South China Sea（SCS） ocean heat content（OHC） in the upper 300 m. Ishii＇s temperature data, based on the World Ocean Database 2005（WOD05） and World Ocean Atlas 2005（WOA05）, is used to assess the model performance by comparing the spatial patterns of seasonal OHC anomaly（OHCa） climatology, OHC climatology, monthly OHCa climatology, and interannual variability of OHCa. The spatial patterns in Ishii＇s data set show that the seasonal SCS OHCa climatology, both in winter and summer, is strongly affected by the wind stress and the current circulations in the SCS and its neighboring areas. However, the CMIP5 models present rather different spatial patterns and only a few models properly capture the dominant features in Ishii＇s pattern. Among them, GFDL-ESM2 G is of the best performance. The SCS OHC climatology in the upper 300 m varies greatly in different models. Most of them are much greater than those calculated from Ishii＇s data. However, the monthly OHCa climatology in each of the 17 CMIP5 models yields similar variation and magnitude as that in Ishii＇s. As for the interannual variability, the standard deviations of the OHCa time series in most of the models are somewhat larger than those in Ishii＇s. The correlation between the interannual time series of Ishii＇s OHCa and that from each of the 17 models is not satisfactory. Among them, BCC-CSM1.1 has the highest correlation to Ishii＇s, with a coefficient of about 0.6.  相似文献