国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8  

王国安 《水文》2004,24(5):5-9,47

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。  相似文献   

Space-time mapping of soil salinity using probabilistic bayesian maximum entropy     

A. Douaik  M. van Meirvenne  T. Tóth  M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227

The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (EC_a) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to EC_a, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC_2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas.  相似文献   

K–Ar geochronology of the temporal change of eruptive style in the eastern Izu peninsula, central Japan     

Ayako  Ozawa  Takahiro  Tagami  Masafumi  Sudo 《Island Arc》2004,13(3):466-472

Abstract   A recent K–Ar study elucidated that eruptive style in the eastern Izu peninsula changed from polygenetic to monogenetic volcano at 0.3–0.2 Ma. To narrow down the time of change, we determined 10 K–Ar ages on Togasayama Andesite of Amagi volcano, the youngest polygenetic volcano in the area, and Togasayama Monogenetic Volcano, one of the oldest monogenetic volcanoes in the area, which overlies a part of the Togasayama Andesite. Dating results showed that the Togasayama Andesite effused at least from 0.34 to 0.20 Ma, whereas the Togasayama Monogenetic Volcano erupted at 0.26–0.29 Ma, suggesting that the northern part of the Togasayama Andesite effused after the eruption of the Togasayama Monogenetic Volcano. Considering previous data, it is therefore inferred that change of eruptive style in the eastern Izu area occurred during the period 0.29–0.20 Ma, with considerable overlap of both polygenetic and monogenetic volcanism.  相似文献   

沈阳近百年的温度变化特征及其环流形势分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

周小珊  李辑  杨森  周广胜 《气象科学》2004,24(4):424-431

沈阳地处全球温度变化的敏感带，在近百年的温度观测记录中，沈阳的温度变化呈逐渐上升之势，近百年增高约1．7℃，这种上升趋势在冬季远比夏季明显。沈阳的年平均温度变化有一个12a的周期，各周期温度基本呈阶梯状上升，20世纪末的周期冬季平均温度比世纪初的周期升温2．8℃左右。从近50a的极端温度的变化趋势来看，极端最低温度明显升高，而极端最高温度并没有上升，变化趋势甚至略下降，以致冬、夏两季温差缩小。从沈阳的最低平均温度和最高平均温度变化来看，两者均随时间逐渐升高，说明沈阳市的增温不仅是最低温度升高造成的，最高温度的增温作用亦十分重要。从冬季环流形势分析来看，东亚大槽及其后弱脊和地面蒙古高压在上世纪80年代、90年代明显减弱，使得冷空气向南侵袭的径向气流减弱，是导致位于冷空气通道中的沈阳冬季增温明显的原因之一。  相似文献   

河南平顶山地区第四纪地层序列划分     

杨长秀  刘振宏  武太安  崔霄峰  李春艳  杨长青 《华北地质》2004,27(1):52-57

根据岩石地层学、地貌学、孢粉学特征,将河南平顶山地区的第四系划分为4个岩石地层单位,由老到新分别为鲁山组、下汤组、社旗组和马塘组。鲁山组分布于前隆起岗地,为冲洪积成因,形成于225×104aB.P.。下汤组具二元结构,组成河流Ⅳ级阶地,属河流冲积成因,形成于64×104aB.P.。社旗组具二元结构特征,组成河流Ⅲ级阶地,属河流冲积成因,形成年代大于5.42×104aB.P.。马塘组也具二元结构特征,组成河流Ⅱ级阶地,属河流冲积成因,形成于2×104aB.P.。岩石地层单位的划分为探讨黄河—淮河冲积平原及南阳盆地的形成与演化提供了基础性资料。  相似文献   

Fluvial sedimentation in a semi-arid region: the fan and interfan system of the Middle Souss Valley, Morocco     

Najat Bhiry 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2004,115(4):313-324

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Fifty-thousand-year vegetation and climate history of Noel Kempff Mercado National Park, Bolivian Amazon     

Rachel E. Burbridge  Timothy J. Killeen 《Quaternary Research》2004,61(2):215-230

Pollen and charcoal records from two large, shallow lakes reveal that throughout most of the past 50,000 yr Noel Kempff Mercado National Park, in northeastern lowland Bolivia (southwestern Amazon Basin), was predominantly covered by savannas and seasonally dry semideciduous forests. Lowered atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, in combination with a longer dry season, caused expansion of dry forests and savannas during the last glacial period, especially at the last glacial maximum. These ecosystems persisted until the mid-Holocene, although they underwent significant species reassortment. Forest communities containing a mixture of evergreen and semideciduous species began to expand between 6000 and 3000 ¹⁴C yr B.P. Humid evergreen rain forests expanded to cover most of the area within the past 2000 ¹⁴C yr B.P., coincident with a reduction in fire frequencies. Comparisons between modern pollen spectra and vegetation reveal that the Moraceae-dominated rain forest pollen spectra likely have a regional source area at least 2-3 km beyond the lake shore, whereas the grass- and sedge-dominated savanna pollen spectra likely have a predominantly local source area. The Holocene vegetation changes are consistent with independent paleoprecipitation records from the Bolivian Altiplano and paleovegetation records from other parts of southwestern Amazonia. The progressive expansion in rain forests through the Holocene can be largely attributed to enhanced convective activity over Amazonia, due to greater seasonality of insolation in the Southern Hemisphere tropics driven by the precession cycle according to the Milankovitch Astronomical Theory.  相似文献   

Coastal neotectonics in Southern Central Andes: uplift and deformation of marine terraces in Northern Chile (27°S)     

Carlos Marquardt  Alain Lavenu  Luc Ortlieb  Estanislao Godoy  Diana Comte 《Tectonophysics》2004,394(3-4):193-219

Neotectonic observations allow a new interpretation of the recent tectonic behaviour of the outer fore arc in the Caldera area, northern Chile (27°S). Two periods of deformation are distinguished, based on large-scale Neogene to Quaternary features of the westernmost part of the Coastal Cordillera: Late Miocene to Early Pliocene deformations, characterized by a weak NE–SW to E–W extension is followed by uppermost Pliocene NW–SE to E–W compression. The Middle Pleistocene to Recent time is characterized by vertical uplift and NW–SE extension. These deformations provide clear indications of the occurrence of moderate to large earthquakes. Microseismic observations, however, indicate a lack of shallow crustal seismicity in coastal zone. We propose that both long-term brittle deformation and uplift are linked to the subduction seismic cycle.  相似文献   

热带第四纪气候变化研究进展   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

黄镇国  张伟强 《云南地理环境研究》2004,16(1):1-8

南美洲、非洲、亚洲以及澳洲、太平洋地区近百个实例表明，全球热带第四纪气候的波动不明显，例如晚更新世MlSS5～MISS2期间的D／0暖波动和Hi冷波动、末次冰期盛期、新仙女木冷回返都很少见报道。但是，相对而言，冷波动比暖波动较易识别，末次冰期有较多实例，新冰期I、Ⅱ、Ⅲ也有表现，而末次间冰期及全新世大暖期则不易识别。温度与湿度变化的时空配合有一定的规律性。末次冰期之前，环境普遍趋湿。末次冰期之后，干湿的地域差异较大。全新世回暖，但是，干湿的地域分布与此前相反。气候变化的地域差异与气候的地带性有关。南美洲的暖波动主要出现在北部。非洲中部赤道多雨带的气候相对稳定。亚洲南部的印度干湿变化明显。东南亚诸岛冷期趋湿。  相似文献   

用L-曲线法确定岭估计中的岭参数   总被引：15，自引：0，他引：15  

王振杰  欧吉坤 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2004,29(3):235-238

运用L 曲线法来确定岭估计中的岭参数 ,推导了用L 曲线法确定岭参数的基本公式 ,在此基础上实现了其算法 ,并用两个算例 ,比较了新方法和以往方法。结果表明 ,L 曲线法不仅容易收敛 ,而且其计算结果的精度较高  相似文献