油气资源预测统计模型及其应用   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

刘晓冬  徐景祯  杨勉 《地质科学》2004,39(2):245-250

松辽盆地北部的油气勘探程度虽然较高,但仍然有一些尚未发现的油气资源。本文在对预测油气资源的分形分布模型和截断帕雷托(TSP)分布模型两种统计模型进行系统研究的基础上,结合油气藏地质规律,通过预测该区未发现的油(气)田数量及其储量规模分布,认为方法可行,结果供参考,并待实践进一步验证。得出主要结论是:分形分布模型是一种预测油气田数量和储量(资源量)的可靠方法,在勘探程度较高的盆地或区带应用效果较好,而在勘探新区应用则有一定难度;截断帕雷托分布模型相对于分形分布模型不很完善,但应用该模型进行油气资源分布预测受具体盆地地质条件的影响较小,具有应用价值。  相似文献   

Recent Developments in Marine Diamond Mining     

Richard H. T. Garnett 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2013,31(2):137-159

The marine diamond deposits of southern Africa owe their existence to fluvial transport down the Orange River to the South Atlantic. On the coast, they were moved, sorted and concentrated by high-energy sea and wind conditions to create a veneer of diamondiferous gravels on the sea floor. Large scale, offshore production by De Beers Marine commenced in 1989 in Namibian waters. The company now acts as a contractor for Namdeb, a corporation owned jointly with the Namibian governments. Some junior public companies also produce diamonds by large-scale mechanized means and conduct extensive exploration programs. Two important developments have occurred recently. Firstly, equipment for the recovery of diamonds from the seabed has been successfully borrowed from other industries. Large drills from onshore civil engineering have been modified for marine sampling and mining. Remotely controlled, seabed-mounted, excavational systems have assumed a major role. The new systems allow both evaluation sampling and subsequent mining to be undertaken by similar or the same equipment, making the results compatible. They permit highly selective extraction and enhanced recovery of the gravels from irregular bedrock in water approaching 200 m deep. But none is universally applicable offshore, each being the preferred system under different conditions. Secondly, the total output of sea diamonds from Namibian waters has increased to 0.8 million carats annually and now exceeds that from all the country's onshore sources. An industry has become established. Corporate and individual perseverence, government encouragement, new technology, shareholders' risk finance, and De Beers' diamond marketing have all played a role in the success. Future diamond production may increase as companies meet the challenge of working lower grade, higher volume deposits, which will require new approaches to the mining process. With a decrease in the physical risk of marine mining, the most variable inputs in operational planning and production forecasting are recovered grade and throughout rate, together with equipment availability. The importance of reliable grade estimation from sufficient sampling density is widely perceived, but the greatest performance risk can involve the predicted excavation rate and ''mineability'' of the seabed sediments. Published reserve statements would benefit from a requirement to specify the planned mining method, the consequent cutoff grade to be employed, and whether or not test mining has been undertaken.  相似文献   

雾的标准化危险性指数计算方法及其应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

王炜  卢雪翠  解以扬 《气象与环境学报》2010,26(1):16-20

在有雾的天气下经常发生几百辆车连续追尾碰撞的恶性交通事故,因此为了做好交通安全工作有必要开展雾的风险分析研究。在考虑雾的出现频率、持续时间和能见度3个参数的基础上,通过改进雾的危险性指数（FHI）方法,得出了适合我国气象标准的雾的标准化危险性指数(NFHI)的计算方法。为了使危险性指数适应雾的数值预报产品的应用,进一步改进了雾的标准化危险性指数的形式,提出了适合数值预测模式的雾的标准化危险性指数。最后结合京津塘高速公路沿线5个国家气象站36 a的雾的观测数据,利用NFI方法计算得出了4个季节的雾的危险性等级,并使用数值预报结果计算了不同地点的雾的标准化危险性指数。利用该指数计算方法可以通过比较不同路径危险性的大小进行最佳路径的选择,为交通安全提供科学参考。  相似文献   

Anticipating ubiquitous computing: Logics to forecast technological futures   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Samuel Kinsley 《Geoforum》2011,42(2):231-240

Visions of the future predict spaces apparently teaming with ever more novel and pervasive technologies. Significant amongst such forecasts is the notion of ‘ubiquitous computing’ (ubicomp), understood as an affordance or capacity tied (in)to people, places and things. This article stages an encounter between the futurity of ubicomp and recent debates in geography around anticipation. So, first, the future orientation in ubicomp research and development (R&D) is investigated as a mode of anticipation. ‘Knowledges’, and ‘logics’ of anticipation are subsequently, and second, discussed as the conceptual apparatus that constructs and perpetuates the ‘proximate future’ of ubicomp. This analysis connects recent discussion about ‘anticipation’ in social sciences research with the methods of ubicomp research, which fits with an emergent agenda around futurity in human geography. Third, the conceptual articulation of ‘anticipatory logic’ is applied to the analysis of empirical investigations of ubicomp R&D to identify the specific logics of anticipation at play. This article accordingly examines the logics of anticipation that both support and destabilise the certainty with which the future is imagined within ubicomp. In conclusion, the multiple ways of anticipating a future world and the ways in which they discipline understandings of futurity are framed as a politics of anticipation.  相似文献   

中国进出口贸易碳转移排放测算方法分析与评价     

方修琦  王媛  魏本勇  王文琴 《地球科学进展》2011,26(10):1101-1108

目前中国的碳转移排放测算方法有很多,虽然方法不尽相同,但总的结论和计算出的变化趋势类似。造成碳转移量测算结果产生较大差异的原因主要有两方面,一是碳排放强度的测算模型不同,二是对于中国加工贸易转移碳排放的认识不同。测算避免转移排放量时,如果不考虑加工贸易的影响,在某些年份（如2002年）甚至会得到＂中国是碳转移的净进口国...  相似文献   

大红山铁铜矿Ⅲ_2a、Ⅱ_5-4矿体对比及探矿建议     

李建飞 《云南地质》2011,30(4):439-442

对部分矿体基建探矿前后矿体主要特征及资源储量对比,探讨矿体控制程度和控制网度问题。原勘探工作对矿体的控制程度很高,矿山生产探矿可适当放稀间距,减少工程量,降低生产成本。  相似文献   

地下卤水体系中水活度的计算方法评定          下载免费PDF全文

江晓红  陆小华 《盐湖研究》2002,10(1):40-44

在温度 1 2 .1～ 60 .5℃范围内测定了地下卤水体系的饱和蒸汽压 ,并采用Clausius -Clapeyron方程进行关联 ,计算水活度 ;比较强电解质混合体系水活度的理论计算模型 ,探索计算地下卤水体系水活度的最佳方法  相似文献   

华北地区光合有效辐射的计算方法研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

白建辉 《气象与环境学报》2009,25(2):1-8

2004年9月—2006年10月,选择华北地区的4个观测站开展了太阳辐射（光合有效辐射PAR、可见光辐射VIS、总辐射Q等）、气象参数等的综合测量,得到了PAR、VIS等的变化特征,结果表明：PAR/Q、VIS/Q、PAR/VIS相对稳定,有明显的日、逐日和季节变化,并受到水汽、散射因子、云等因素的影响。2004—2006年禹城、栾城、香河、兴隆地区VIS/Q,PAR/Q和PAR/VIS的平均值分别为0.39,1.95 mol/MJ和4.97 mol/MJ;0.39,1.94 mol/MJ和4.95 mol/MJ;0.43,2.16 mol/MJ和4.97 mol/MJ;0.42,2.03 mol/MJ和4.89 mol/MJ。建立了计算华北地区实际天气PAR、VIS小时累计值的经验公式及PAR与VIS转换关系式,计算值与观测值符合得都比较好。考虑水汽和散射因子时,PAR、VIS计算值与观测值的相对偏差分别为13.0%、12.4%。由于某些站点可能缺少直接或散射辐射,也可以只考虑水汽因子,此时,PAR、VIS的相对偏差分别为13.2%、12.8%。对于PAR、VIS的传输和计算来说,水汽因子的作用最为重要;散射因子的作用虽弱于水汽因子,但也不应该忽视。  相似文献   

球面距离计算方法及精度比较     

樊东卫  何勃亮  李长华  韩军  许允飞  崔辰州 《天文研究与技术》2019,(1):69-76

球面距离(角间距)计算是天文或地理学中极常用的计算之一,也是目标查找、锥形检索、交叉证认等方法的基础。数学上,通过球面几何可以直接计算出两点的距离,前人已经推导出了多个复杂程度不一的计算方法。但是由于计算机的精度有限,在进行数值计算时有舍入误差,导致公式计算结果出现偏差。对几个常用的球面距离计算公式进行了考察,测试并对比它们在不同计算环境下的精度与优缺点。此外还展示并比较了几种常用天文软件包、数据库的球面距离计算方法,以期有助于天文工作者选择适合自己当前需要的计算方法。  相似文献   

锋面通过台湾海峡时引起的快速成长波高推算     

高家俊  董东璟  范扬洺  庄士贤  李汴军 《海洋预报》2002,19(3):1-13

每年冬季因中国北方冷空气前缘东移出海南下而形成的锋面是造成台湾海峡内恶劣海况的原因之一，锋面的到临常引发快速增高的波浪，这种海况是目前作业化数值预报模式在操作上不易反映的。经验证明根据元素波模式推衍所得的面积风域法推算波浪，适合于推导季风期间海况的一种方法。本文将锋面期间风域是移动的特性结合面积风域理论，作为推算锋面抵达时推算波高的方法。本文提出加权风场内插法计算各时刻各网格点的风速，使得面积风域理论简化为在网格点上的离散计算。文中根据锋面期间实际观测数据计算波能传播速率与风能传播系数等参数，经由案例分析的结果显示这个离散化面积风域法可以合理地推算锋面期间快速成长的波高。  相似文献