利用SVM与ARIMA组合模型进行大坝变形预测     

杨恒  岳建平  周钦坤 《测绘通报》2021,(4):74-78

由于大坝位移时间序列数据受各种复杂因素的影响,具有非平稳和非线性等特征,因此,利用传统、单一的时间序列预测模型较难准确地描述大坝位移变形的复杂规律。综合考虑大坝位移时间序列非线性和线性特征,本文提出了一种SVM和ARIMA相结合的时间序列预测模型。将大坝变形的时间序列分为非线性部分和线性部分。针对非线性部分,利用SVM进行滚动预测,并与NAR动态神经网络进行对比,试验表明SVM处理非线性问题具有相对的优势;针对线性部分,通过ARIMA模型对其进行单步滚动预测,综合两项预测结果得到组合模型的预测值。结合大坝实测资料对组合模型进行检验,试验结果表明,SVM-ARIMA组合模型的预测精度高,能更好地描述大坝位移的变化趋势,具有一定的实用价值。  相似文献   

利用Sentinel-1影像监测土地回填导致的地表形变     

杨映新  洪武胜  吴曼乔 《测绘通报》2021,(6):67-70

在机场填海区地表稳定散射的范围内,本文运用合成孔径雷达干涉测量（InSAR）技术对机场地表形变安全性进行了监测分析,反演获得了研究区域范围内的年形变速率数据结果和高分辨率形变时序结果,并以此分析了香港国际机场的地表形变区在监测周期内的形变时空分布特征。为证明监测结果的精度和可靠性,本文采用全球导航卫星系统（GNSS）观测站的垂直位移数据,对InSAR方法反演的结果进行了交叉验证,证明两者具有良好的一致性。  相似文献   

基于小波去噪的地铁变形组合预测模型分析     

杨春宇  任兴达  江汇男  袁岳  王子林 《测绘通报》2021,(10):127-131

对地铁监测数据建立相应的预测模型,对变形可进行前瞻性预测,从而保证地铁安全的施工和运营。本文以北京市地铁某基坑工程为研究对象,首先以某一监测点为例,利用小波分析对原始监测数据进行去噪处理;然后分别利用时间序列分析模型和BP神经网络模型对去噪后的数据进行建模分析,得到原数据的拟合值和对未来变形的预测值;最后利用同期Sentinel-1A卫星影像进行相干点时序InSAR处理,得到形变结果。通过分析两个模型的预测值与实际值,并与InSAR结果进行对比,验证了两个预测模型在地铁形变监测中应用的优劣性。  相似文献   

利用基于抗差垂直向方差分量估计的GPS-InSAR数据融合方法反演三维形变场   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

吴学雨  李明峰  董思学  王彬  赵志胜 《测绘通报》2021,(12):38-43

GPS-InSAR数据融合解算三维形变场模型易受观测值粗差影响,且基于方差分量估计的定权方法不具备抵御粗差能力,计算效率低下。鉴于此,本文提出了一种基于抗差垂直向方差分量估计的GPS-InSAR融合解算模型,利用方差分量估计方法及抗差估计理论,通过对观测值最优化分类并进行选权迭代,精确分配权重,进而有效计算三维形变场。试验结果表明,该方法能有效抵御观测值粗差不利影响,提高三维形变场反演精度,提升逐点式计算的三维形变场效率。  相似文献   

建筑变形测量成果质量检验问题分析     

杨绪峰  彭凯笛  陈宇恒 《测绘与空间地理信息》2021,44(1):210-212

近几年,全国开展了多次变形测量成果质量检验工作且效果显著。本文首先简要介绍了全国建筑变形测量成果质量检验工作相关内容,其次结合全国33个建筑变形测量成果受检项目中出现的较严重的质量问题,从成果类型、质量元素、典型问题3个方面对成果质量情况进行分析,最后根据分析结论与检验情况为建筑变形测量成果在生产中的质量控制及质量检验提供建议。  相似文献   

平面四参数法坐标转换在圆形基坑变形监测中的应用     

刘永辉  黄立 《测绘与空间地理信息》2021,44(1):217-221

由于基坑工程的监测工作往往会受到开挖深度、设计形状等各方面因素的影响和制约,导致监测方法和手段也不能一成不变。基于虚拟断面法仅适用于比较规则的多边形基坑,本文结合珠海市横琴新区基坑工程实例,提出使用平面四参数坐标转换法在圆形基坑中对基坑立柱水平位移计算的应用。结果表明:使用平面四参数坐标转换法计算基坑水平位移时,既不受基坑形状的影响,也能更直观地反映出基坑水平位移的变形量。  相似文献   

DISCREPANCY OF THE GLOBAL AIR MASS AND WATER BUDGETS AMONG 20 CMIP5 CLIMATE MODELS     

秦育婧  卢楚翰  管兆勇  智海 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(3):265-275

The consistency of global atmospheric mass and water budget performance in 20 state-of-the-art ocean–atmosphere Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled models has been assessed in a historical experiment. All the models realistically reproduce a climatological annual mean of global air mass (AM) close to the ERA-Interim AM during 1989–2005. Surprisingly, the global AM in half of the models shows nearly no seasonal variation, which does not agree with the seasonal processes of global precipitable water or water vapor, given the mass conservation constraint. To better understand the inconsistencies, we evaluated the seasonal cycles of global AM tendency and water vapor source (evaporation minus precipitation). The results suggest that the inconsistencies result from the poor balance between global AM tendency and water vapor source based on the global AM budget equation. Moreover, the cross-equatorial dry air mass ?ux, or hemispheric dry mass divergence, is not well represented in any of the 20 CMIP5 models, which show a poorly matched seasonal cycle and notably larger amplitude, compared with the hemispheric tendencies of dry AM in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Pronounced erroneous estimations of tropical precipitation also occur in these models. We speculate that the large inaccuracy of precipitation and possibly evaporation in the tropics is one of the key factors for the inconsistent cross-equatorial mass ?ux. A reasonable cross-equatorial mass ?ux in well-balanced hemispheric air mass and moisture budgets remains a challenge for both reanalysis assimilation systems and climate modeling.  相似文献   

THE LIMITATION OF CLOUD-BASE MASS FLUX IN CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATION AND ITS APPLICATION IN A HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL     

徐道生  陈子通  钟水新  温焰军  谢东东 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2015,21(S1):11-22

A large area of unrealized precipitation is produced with the standard convective parameterization scheme in a high-resolution model, while subgrid-scale convection that cannot be explicitly resolved is omitted without convective parameterization. A modified version of the convection scheme with limited mass flux at cloud base is introduced into a south-China regional high-resolution model to alleviate these problems. A strong convection case and a weak convection case are selected to analyze the influence of limited cloud-base mass flux on precipitation forecast. The sensitivity of different limitation on mass flux at cloud base is also discussed. It is found that using instability energy closure for Simplified Arakawa- Schubert Scheme will produce better precipitation forecast than the primary closure based on quasi-equilibrium assumption. The influence of the convection scheme is dependent on the upper limit of mass flux at cloud base. The total rain amount is not so sensitive to the limitation of mass flux in the strong convection case as in the weak one. From the comparison of two different methods for limiting the cloud-base mass flux, it is found that shutting down the cumulus parameterization scheme completely when the cloud-base mass flux exceeds a given limitation is more suitable for the forecast of precipitation.  相似文献   

Titanium Isotope Analysis of Igneous Reference Materials using a Double-spike MC-ICP-MS Method     

LI Jin  TANG Suohan  ZHU Xiangkun  MA Jianxiong  ZHAO Xinmiao 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(2):517-524

Ti separation was achieved by ion-exchange chromatography using Bio-Rad AG 1-X8 anion-exchange and DGA resins. For high-Fe/Ti and high-Mg/Ti igneous samples, a three-column procedure was required, whereas a two-column procedure was used for low-Fe/Ti and low-Mg/Ti igneous samples. The Ti isotopes were analysed by MC-ICP-MS, and instrumental mass bias was corrected using a 47Ti-49Ti double-spike technique. The 47Ti-49Ti double-spike and SRM 3162a were calibrated using SRM 979-Cr, certificated value 53Cr/52Crtrue = 0.11339. Isobaric interference was evaluated by analysing Alfa-Ti doped with Na, Mg, Ca, and Mo, and results indicate that high concentrations of Na and Mg have no significant effect on Ti isotope analyses; however, Ca and Mo interferences lead to erroneous δ49/47Ti values when Ca/Ti and Mo/Ti ratios exceed 0.01 and 0.1, respectively. Titanium isotopic compositions were determined for 12 igneous reference materials, BCR-2, BHVO-2, GBW07105, AGV-1, AGV-2, W-2, GBW07123, GBW07126, GBW07127, GBW07101, JP-1, and DTS-2b. Samples yield δ49/47Ti (‰) of ?0.035 ± 0.022, ?0.038 ± 0.031, 0.031 ± 0.022, 0.059 ± 0.038, 0.044 ± 0.037, 0.000 ± 0.015, 0.154 ± 0.044, ?0.044 ± 0.018, 0.010 ± 0.022, 0.064 ± 0.043, 0.169 ± 0.034, and ?0.047 ± 0.025 (relative to OL-Ti, ±2SD), respectively; of which isotopic compositions of DTS-2b, JP-1, GBW07101, GBW07105, GBW07123, GBW07126, and GBW07127 are reported for the first time. Standard Alfa-Ti was analysed repeatedly over a ten-month period, indicating a reproducibility of ±0.047 (2SD) for δ49/47Ti, similar to the precisions obtained for geochemical reference materials.  相似文献   

大气中痕量有机胺测量方法的研究进展     

王兴  马嫣  郑军  陈敏东  Halim Jabbour 《南京气象学院学报》2015,7(1):31-39

作为大气中最重要的含氮有机化合物,有机胺易与硫酸、硝酸气体生成胺盐,促进新颗粒的形成,同时也可与臭氧、OH自由基、NO₃自由基发生氧化反应,是二次气溶胶的前体物.综述了国内外关于大气有机胺检测技术的研究进展,对常规的离线检测技术和在线质谱技术进行了介绍和对比,重点介绍了质谱法工作原理以及测定大气有机胺的优越性,并对其未来发展进行了展望.  相似文献