全球变暖与亚洲夏季风北边缘带:CO₂增倍的数值模拟   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

汪佳伟  汤绪  陈葆德  彭玉萍 《高原气象》2012,31(2):418-427

利用NCAR CAM3全球大气环流模式(包含CLM陆面模式)进行了20年(1998-2017年)CO2增倍的数值试验,并通过计算海陆热力差异,分析了环流形势、雨带分布和云量特征等物理量,研究了全球变暖对东亚夏季风北边缘带的影响。结果表明,CAM3大气环流模式能较好地描述东亚地区大尺度环流的季节变化特征,当CO2含量成倍增长后,将对亚洲经度范围内的夏季风北边缘的位置产生不同的影响,具体表现为100°～123°E地区北边缘位置偏北明显,100°E以西略偏北,123°～132°E略偏北幅度很小,132°E以东呈现出一定的偏北趋势。其原因可能是由于陆地增温有利于青藏高原低层气旋性环流的加强以及北半球纬向海陆热力差异的增加,从而导致我国西南和东南方向向北的水汽输送明显增加。研究表明,南北半球的海陆热力差异无明显变化,南北半球间的相互作用与北半球夏季风增强无明显的联系,两者的关系还有待进一步研究。  相似文献   

全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

史培军  李宁  叶谦  董文杰  韩国义  方伟华 《地球科学进展》2009,24(4):428-435

实现可持续发展,需要加深理解全球环境变化对可更新资源保障能力和灾害发生频率、强度和时空格局的影响。近年来发生在世界各国的巨灾造成了严重的灾情,如2008年中国南方的冰冻雨雪灾害,2007年孟加拉国的台风灾害,2005年的美国卡特里娜飓风等。加强对全球环境变化背景下的综合灾害风险防范研究已成为一个迫切需要解决的可持续发展问题。为此,在CNC IHDP的领导下,CNC IHDP RG工作组向IHDP提出了开展全球环境变化与综合风险防范研究的建议。经过2年多的努力,作为IHDP新一轮国际性核心科学计划——综合风险防范（IHDP IRG）已经得到IHDP SC的认可,即将于2009年4月在德国波恩IHDP科学大会期间正式宣布启动。该核心计划为从事风险研究、管理和具体实践方面的全球顶级专家和组织搭建交流平台,并引导未来国际综合风险防范研究从综合灾害风险防范的科学、技术与管理问题入手,通过案例对比,从多学科角度,对综合灾害风险防范的理论和方法进行创新性研究,以推动全球综合减灾实践的深入发展。CNC IHDP RG作为这一核心科学计划的倡议、发起和主要组织者,通过该计划的成功实施,不但可以在国际上充分展现我国综合灾害风险研究领域的成果,更将有助于大幅度提升中国在全球环境变化研究中的国际地位。  相似文献   

Globalization failures in a neo-liberal world: the case of FIAT Auto in the 1990s     

Michael Dunford 《Geoforum》2009,40(2):145-157

In the 1990s FIAT Auto embarked on an ambitious globalization project (Project 178). FIAT Auto’s main aim was to enter new markets in emerging economies, although globalization also opened up opportunities for cost reduction through global sourcing. The countries chosen were ones in which it was anticipated that neo-liberal programmes of economic reform would result in fast economic growth. The result however was slow growth and economic crises. For FIAT Auto the consequence was a massive shortfall in anticipated sales which contributed along with a number of other factors to a deep financial crisis and a dramatic restructuring of the FIAT Group. This paper seeks to examine and explain these events drawing on a global value chain approach to the analysis of corporate profit and accumulation strategies.  相似文献   

Global monsoon: Dominant mode of annual variation in the tropics   总被引：13，自引：0，他引：13  

Bin Wang  Qinghua Ding 《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2008,44(3-4):165

This paper discusses the concept of global monsoon. We demonstrate that the primary climatological features of the tropical precipitation and low-level circulation can be represented by a three-parameter metrics: the annual mean and two major modes of annual variation, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. Together, the two major modes of annual cycle account for 84% of the annual variance and they represent the global monsoon. The global monsoon precipitation domain can be delineated by a simple monsoon precipitation index (MPI), which is the local annual range of precipitation (MJJAS minus NDJFM in the Northern Hemisphere and NDJFM minus MJJAS in the Southern Hemisphere) normalized by the annual mean precipitation. The monsoon domain can be defined by annual range exceeding 300 mm and the MPI exceeding 50%.The three-parameter precipitation climatology metrics and global monsoon domain proposed in the present paper provides a valuable objective tool for gauging the climate models’ performance on simulation and prediction of the mean climate and annual cycle. The metrics are used to evaluate the precipitation climatology in three global reanalysis products (ERA40, NCEP2, and JRA25) in terms of their pattern correlation coefficients and root mean square errors with reference to observations. The ensemble mean of the three analysis datasets is considerably superior to any of the individual reanalysis data in representing annual mean, annual cycle, and the global monsoon domain. A major common deficiency is found over the Southeast Asia-Philippine Sea and southeast North America-Caribbean Sea where the east–west land–ocean thermal contrast and meridional hemispheric thermal contrast coexist. It is speculated that the weakness is caused by models’ unrealistic representation of Subtropical High and under-represented tropical storm activity, as well as by neglecting atmosphere–ocean interaction in the reanalysis. It is recommended that ensemble mean of reanalysis datasets be used for improving global precipitation climatology and water cycle budget. This paper also explains why the latitudinal asymmetry in the tropical circulation decreases with altitude.  相似文献   

NCEP/NCAR逐时分析与中国实测地表温度和地面气温对比分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

周青  赵凤生  高文华 《气象》2008,34(2):83-91

美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP) 和国家大气中心(NCAR) 的全球分析资料,不仅应用于气候模拟和预测研究中而且也可作为卫星遥感云检测的初始场资料.通过对2005年NCEP逐6小时全球最终分析资料(FNL)与中国753个台站实测资料的地表温度和地面1.5m高气温进行Cressman插值, 从时次变化和空间变化等方面系统地分析和比较了这一年间NCEP分析值与中国区域内观测值之间的差异, 得到结果: NCEP分析地表温度较观测值普遍偏低, 而地面气温NCEP分析值的空间分布大致表现为在北部地区大于观测值、而南部地区小于观测值;就2005年季节变化而言,NCEP分析值在夏季比冬季符合得好,而在我国东南部比东北、西北符合得好;从时次上看,地温和气温都呈现出随着时次推进(从2时到20时),正值区(NCEP分析值-实测值＞0)减弱、负值区(NCEP分析值-实测值＜0)加强的趋势;而通过标准化均方根误差的分析,可以知道气温的NCEP分析资料在我国可行性比地温要好.  相似文献   

CLM3模拟的1979-2003年中国土壤湿度及其对全球变暖的可能响应   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8  

杜川利  刘晓东  WU Wanli 《高原气象》2008,27(3):463-473

利用NCAR公用陆面模式CLM3(Common Land Model 3),以1979—2003年NCEP/DOE再分析资料(Reanalysis-2)作为外界强迫,对在分辨率为0.5°纬度×0.5°经度下中国区域进行独立(off-line)模拟试验,并分析了土壤湿度对全球变暖的响应。模拟结果显示:土壤湿度随深度的增加调整(Spin-up)到稳态时间加长,最长可高达20年,这说明模式陆面过程对土壤初始状态的敏感性。模拟结果与台站实测资料及NCEP再分析资料输出的土壤湿度的对比表明,季节与年际变化及其空间分布基本一致。我们的结果还显示,随着近年来气候逐渐变暖,包括中国北方(30°N以北)在内的东亚北部地区夏季土壤湿度有逐渐减少趋势,最多减少15(mm3.mm-3).(100a)-1。  相似文献   

Evaluating the Global Environment Facility: A goodwill gesture or a serious attempt to deliver global benefits?     

Laurence D. Mee  Holly T. Dublin  Anton A. Eberhard 《Global Environmental Change》2008,18(4):800

Over its 17 years, the UN's Global Environment Facility (GEF) has allocated US $7.5 billion intended to develop and implement scientifically and socially credible solutions to key global environmental problems such as climate change, biological diversity loss and degradation of transboundary aquatic systems. We studied 906 GEF projects to analyse the challenges that it is facing in delivering solutions that are likely to be sustainable in the long-term. The research included desk reviews of relevant documents and follow-up interviews with a wide range of stakeholders. Some of the challenges the GEF faces are deeply rooted in temporal and spatial mismatches of scale between human economies and their environmental consequences and the strongly sectoral way current society is managed. We conclude that the GEF obtained impressive results for tackling problems of limited complexity and easily quantified benefits but progress is slower on more complex and less tangible problems impeding sustainable development. Potentially, the GEF could enable adaptive management through a ‘learning by doing’ process, transforming it into an innovative mechanism for delivering global benefits. Continued emphasis on ‘easy wins’ would not allow it to achieve this goal.  相似文献   

Neither friends nor foes: Thoughts on ethnographic distance     

Ju Hui Judy Han 《Geoforum》2010,41(1):11-14

As a critical ethnographer of proselytizing missions led by conservative Korean/American evangelicals, I discuss the difficulties arising from conducting research in a hostile group setting, negotiating the dynamics of empathetic proximity and critical distance.  相似文献   

Quaternary climates: a perspective for global warming     

James Rose 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》2010,121(3):334-341

This brief review provides an Earth Science perspective on present climate change (global warming) using evidence from past ice ages with details from the Quaternary ice age. It places the present (Quaternary) ice age in the context of Earth history and outlines possible causes of ice ages and the scale and style of ice age climate. Milankovitch climate forcing is described and explained as the cause of relatively predictable climatic variations within an ice age (and at other times), and this is followed by an outline of the factors likely to be responsible for short and rapid sub-Milankovitch climate variations that are superimposed on the predictable changes. Finally the anomalous, relatively constant climate of the last 11.5 ka (Holocene) is highlighted and explained in terms of human input of greenhouse gasses into the Earth's atmosphere.  相似文献   

福建连城赖源岩溶景观特点及成因探讨     

李剑玲 《福建地质》2010,29(1):46-52

赖源景区是连城冠豸山国家地质公园主要园区之一,以发育岩溶峰丛、孤峰、溶洞及岩溶次生化学沉积等为主要特征。园区内有山地景观、溶洞景观和水体景观3种类型,岩溶发育系统完整,景观优美,其形成是船山—棲霞灰岩受水流溶蚀,机械侵蚀和重力崩塌等多种地质作用的结果。  相似文献