温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线检验与减排路径的冲击动态——基于黑龙江省统计核算数据   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张滨  吕洁华 《气候变化研究进展》2019,15(1):84-94

基于2001-2015年黑龙江省温室气体排放统计核算数据,对地区GDP与温室气体排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线关系检验呈现倒U型,预期2019年达到理论拐点;通过偏最小二乘回归模型得到4个减排路径的年平均减排效果顺序依次为单位GDP化石能源消费量减少、经济结构调整、人均GDP增长、贸易结构变化;减排路径对应脉冲响应函数的动态冲击效果分别为波动性增排、收敛性减排、发散性减排、转变的排放作用;推动黑龙江省温室气体减排的路径顺序为控制化石能源消费量、优化经济结构、发展低碳经济、调整贸易结构。  相似文献   

地层学的几个基本问题及中国地层学可能的发展趋势   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

王鸿祯 《地层学杂志》2006,30(2):97-102

对地层学的几个基本问题,包括地层分类、国际地层表的建立、全球地层标准剖面及剖面点进行了讨论。在各种地层分类体系中,年代地层学和岩石地层学是分类中的主体,其他系统都居于补充或从属的地位。国际地层表是地质学的基本文件和地学研究的主要参照,其建立的基础应是地史上关键性地质事件的记录,其方法应是多学科的综合研究。前寒武纪与显生宙划分的建立标准应是一致的。国际地层委员会制订的GSSP做出了重大贡献,但所定点位不够稳定,点位以外无法对比,在实践上和认知上都有不足。可考虑用多学科综合研究,寻觅接近等时的物理界面取代剖面点作为地层界面。在中国地层研究方面,以三次全国地层会议为准,分阶段概括论述了半世纪以来做出的主要成果。对今后中国地层研究的可能趋势提出了一些看法。主要是:应从系统论、整体观和复杂性观点的高度开展多学科的融合,共同解决地层的时空关系和划分对比等复杂问题;应当扩大服务面和扩展研究面,着重开展以古环境和古气候为中心的地层研究,协助解决与经济建设中的资源与环境两大主题有关的地质课题;制订2008年后的中、长期规划,改进GSSP程序,持续完善《国际地层表》这一永恒任务;开展高分辨率、高精度地层学研究,建立融合及协调多种分支学科的综合地层学;扩大地层学对整个地球科学的服务,使中国地层学研究进入一个新的阶段。  相似文献   

APPLICATION OF UNIT HYDROGRAPH TECHNIQUES TO SOLUTE TRANSPORT IN CATCHMENTS     

C. J. BARNES  M. BONELL 《水文研究》1996,10(6):793-802

Current models of solute movement in catchments are based on rainfall–runoff models and are consequently biased towards processes which determine the magnitude and timing of water flux. It is shown here that the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH), or runoff response function, obtained from a hydrograph is fundamentally different from the residence time distribution which governs the response to solutes/tracers. Using hydrometric and tracer data obtained from a small (25 ha) catchment in the humid tropics a modification of the IUH technique is demonstrated which also allows approximate modelling of the tracer data. New features of the modified conceptual model are identified with known hillslope processes.  相似文献   

UNIT HYDROGRAPH DERIVED FROM A SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTED VELOCITY FIELD     

D. R. MAIDMENT  F. OLIVERA  A. CALVER  A. EATHERALL  W. FRACZEK 《水文研究》1996,10(6):831-844

A unit hydrograph model is proposed in which the watershed is decomposed into subareas which are individual cells or zones of neighbouring cells. The unit hydrograph is found for each subarea and the response at the outlet to excess rainfall on each subarea is summed to produce the watershed runoff hydrograph. The cell to cell flow path to the watershed outlet is determined from a digital elevation model. A constant flow velocity is assigned to each cell and the time lag between subarea input and response at the watershed outlet is found by integrating the flow time along the path from the subarea to the outlet. The response function for a subarea is modelled as a lagged linear reservoir in which the flow time is equal to the sum of a time of translation and an average residence time in the reservoir. It is shown that the assumption of a spatially varying, but time-invariant, velocity field underlying this model produces a linear system model for all subareas whose outputs can be summed in the manner indicated. An example application is presented for the 8.70 km² Severn watershed at Plynlimon in Wales using a 50 m digital elevation model in which the cell velocity is calculated by modifying an average watershed velocity according to the terrain slope and the drainage area of each cell. The resulting model reasonably reproduces the observed unit hydrograph.  相似文献   

APPLICATION OF A GROUPED RESPONSE UNIT HYDROLOGICAL MODEL TO A NORTHERN WETLAND REGION     

ALAIN PIETRONIRO  TERRY PROWSE  LAURENCE HAMLIN  NICK KOUWEN  RIC SOULIS 《水文研究》1996,10(10):1245-1261

Applications of hydrological models to northern wetland-dominated regions have been limited in the past to a few case studies on small basins employing ‘lumped’ models. Only recently have there been attempts to apply the grouped response unit (GRU) distributed modelling approach using terrain classifications to these same basins. This study summarizes recent efforts in applying such a model. For the purposes of implementing the GRU approach, terrain types that are hydrologically significant and characteristic to the wetland-dominated regime were successfully discriminated using a principal component analysis and a hybrid unsupervised/supervised classification technique on Landsat–Thematic Mapper imagery. The terrain classifications were then used as input into a distributed hydrological model for calibration and validation using recorded spring runoff events. Preliminary model applications and results are described. Calibration to a historic spring runoff event yielded an r² value of 0.86. Model validation, however, yielded much poorer results. The problems of model applicability to this region and limitations of sparse data networks are highlighted. The need for more field research in this type of hydrological regime, and associated improvements to the model parameter set are also identified.  相似文献   

FLOOD MODELLING WITH GIS-DERIVED DISTRIBUTED UNIT HYDROGRAPHS     

I. MUZIK 《水文研究》1996,10(10):1401-1409

The concept of a spatially distributed unit hydrograph is based on the fact that the unit hydrograph can be derived from the time–area curve of a watershed by the S-curve method. The time–area diagram is a graph of cumulative drainage area contributing to discharge at the watershed outlet within a specified time of travel. Accurate determination of the time–area diagram is made possible by using a GIS. The GIS is used to describe the connectivity of the links in the watershed flow network and to calculate distances and travel times to the watershed outlet for various points within the watershed. Overland flow travel times are calculated by the kinematic wave equation for time to equilibrium; channel flow times are based on the Manning and continuity equations. To account for channel storage, travel times for channel reaches are increased by a percentage depending on the channel reach length and geometry. With GIS capability for rainfall mapping, the assumption of a uniform spatial rainfall distribution is no longer necessary; hence the term, spatially distributed unit hydrograph. An example of the application for the Waiparous Creek in the Alberta Foothills is given. IDRISI is used to develop a simple digital elevation model of the 229 km² watershed, using 1 km × 1 km grid cells. A grid of flow directions is developed and used to create an equivalent channel network. Excess rainfall for each 1 km × 1 km cell is individually computed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) runoff curve method and routed through the equivalent channel network to obtain the time–area curve. The derived unit hydrograph gave excellent results in simulating an observed flood hydrograph. The distributed unit hydrograph is no longer a lumped model, since it accounts for internal distribution of rainfall and runoff. It is derived for a watershed without the need for observed rainfall and discharge data, because it is essentially a geomorphoclimatic approach. As such, it allows the derivation of watershed responses (hydrographs) to inputs of various magnitudes, thus eliminating the assumption of proportionality of input and output if needed. The superposition of outputs is retained in simulating flood hydrographs by convolution, since it has been shown that some non-linear systems satisfy the principle of superposition. The distributed unit hydrograph appears to be a very promising rainfall runoff model based on GIS technology.  相似文献   

川西雀儿山花岗岩的地球化学和岩石成因   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

刘树文  王宗起  闫全人  李秋根  张德会  王建国 《地质学报》2006,80(9):1355-1363

位于川西义敦岛弧北端的雀儿山花岗岩体主要由岩体边部或者作为包体的花岗闪长岩、主体似斑状花岗岩和较晚的呈条带状或者脉状伟晶质、细晶质花岗岩组成。这些花岗质岩石表现了较宽的常量元素变化范围,属于高钾钙碱性到shoshonite亚铝到过铝质岩石系列,表现了较平坦式具有负Eu异常的稀土配分模式。在原始地幔标准化的多元素图解上所有这些岩石表现Rb、Th和K等大离子亲石元素强烈富集,Nb、Sr、P和Ti等元素明显亏损。Sm-Nd同位素分析结果表明似斑状花岗岩亏损地幔模式年龄tDM=1.23~1.61Ga,εNd(t)=-5.3~-6.3,细晶花岗岩脉tDM=2.30Ga,εNd(t)=-6.9。这些岩石的εNd(t)分布在康定杂岩的Nd同位素演化范围内和上部。岩石地球化学和Nd同位素特征研究揭示其花岗岩岩浆起源于上部地壳杂砂岩、砂页岩和泥质岩石的部分熔融,经历了早期阶段的铁镁质矿物和副矿物的分离结晶,晚期钾长石等卷入了分离结晶。雀儿山花岗质岩浆活动发生于同碰撞到碰撞后隆升构造背景。  相似文献   

上海市城乡实体地域的划分   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

宋小冬  柳朴  周一星 《地理学报》2006,61(8):787-797

正确的城乡划分,并以此为依据统计城镇人口,是社会经济统计的重要组成部分,城乡划分方法的研究在理论和现实两方面都具有重要的意义。利用上海市2000年的航空遥感影像和人口普查地理信息系统,作了实验性的城乡实体地域划分。特别对上海市主城区、郊区青浦区、远郊金山区张堰镇三种类型的城镇实体地域,作了较详细的划分方法探讨,以此来分别模拟国内大城市、中小城市和小城镇的实体地域划分。 本文分步骤介绍了各类型城乡实体地域划分的基本过程,同时对每种类型实体地域的多种精度的结果进行比较研究,分别探讨大城市、中小城市和城镇三种类型的实体地域划分在近远期分别应达到的精度。精度合适、操作简便,是本次研究的重点,目的是为了将城镇实体地域划分工作在大范围内推广。  相似文献   

流动单元划分新方案及其在临南油田的应用   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

胡文瑄  朱东亚  陈庆春  王秀鹏  曹学伟 《地球科学》2006,31(2):191-200

把沉积学与储层物性相结合, 从流动单元体系的角度出发, 提出了流动单元划分的新方案.在流动单元体系内部划分出流动单元、亚流动单元和渗流区3个不同层次.在储层精细小层对比的基础上, 首先根据区域内连续分布的隔层把储层分成几个独立的流体压力系统, 即流动单元; 然后再根据不连续分布的隔层, 把一个流动单元进一步分成若干个亚流动单元; 最后根据储层物性的差别把流动单元/亚流动单元划分成不同的渗流区.按照这个思路, 选取临南油田的典型高产区块———以三角洲前缘亚相沉积为主的夏52块砂三中段三砂组, 进行了流动单元、亚流动单元和渗流区的划分, 共划分出7个流动单元、7个亚流动单元和63个渗流区, 这样划分出来的流动单元体系同时包括了油藏整体与局部细节的特征, 为油藏开发提供了详细的地质依据, 也在实际应用中取得了良好的效果.   相似文献   

利用毛管压力曲线分形分维方法研究流动单元   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

师永民  张玉广  何勇  郑海飞  吕文忠  郑红军 《地学前缘》2006,13(3):129-134

利用取心井铸体薄片获得的图像资料和毛管压力曲线,通过图像分形几何学方法以分维数的形式定量地表征出了复杂的微观孔隙喉道结构特征,发现能够很好地划分和评价孔隙岩石中油、气、水的渗流差异,可以用于储层微观流动单元表征。文中阐述了岩石微观孔隙喉道结构分形的理论基础、计算方法和应用于表征流动单元的依据。建立了中国西部砾岩低渗透油藏微观孔隙喉道分维数与孔隙度、渗透率之间计算图版,据此在油藏中利用常规测井资料获得的孔隙度、渗透率参数计算微观孔隙喉道分维数,开展全油藏流动单元划分与评价,取得了良好的效果。研究结果表明,利用毛管压力曲线分形分维方法研究储层微观流动单元是一种很有效的途径。  相似文献