A method for assessing regional debris flow risk: an application in Zhaotong of Yunnan province (SW China)   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

Xilin Liu  Junzhong Lei 《Geomorphology》2003,52(3-4):181-191

Based on the definitions of the United Nations, the assessment of risk involves the evaluation of both hazard and vulnerability. This forms the basis of a generalized assessment model of debris flow risk. Hazard is a measure of the threatening degree of an extreme event and is expressed theoretically as a function of event magnitude and frequency of occurrence. Mathematically, it is the definite integral area under the magnitude–frequency curve. Based on the need for a model applicable in regions that lack data, a new method that incorporates theoretical concepts with empirical analysis is presented to calculate the regional hazardousness of debris flows. Debris flow hazard can be estimated from gully density, mean annual rainfall and percentage of cultivated land on steep slope. Vulnerability is defined as the potential total maximum losses due to a potential damaging phenomenon for a specified area and during a reference period. On a regional scale, it is dependent on the fixed assets, gross domestic product, land resources and population density, as well as age, education and wealth of the inhabitants. A nonlinear, power-function model to compute the vulnerability degree is presented. An application of the proposed method to Zhaotong prefecture of Yunnan province, SW China, provides high accuracy and reasonable risk estimates. The highest risk of debris flow is in Zhaotong county with a value of 0.48; the lowest risk of debris flow is in Yanjin county with a value of 0.16. The other counties have debris flow risks ranging from 0.22 to 0.46. This provides an approach for assessing the regional debris flow risk and a basis for the formulation of a regional risk management policy in Zhaotong prefecture.  相似文献   

移动环境自适应地图综合方法初探     

SHEN Jie    LONG Yi    WANG Mei-zhen    SHI Jun-fei 《测绘学院学报》2008,(4)

随着移动定位服务等技术的飞速发展,地图综合在专题内容、综合效率等方面已不能满足移动地图服务的需要。这就要求针对当前的移动环境,发展自适应地图综合方法。在系统分析当今移动环境自适应地图综合研究现状的基础上,指出移动环境自适应地图综合的理论基础与技术背景,提出移动环境自适应地图综合的基本思想、特征与关键问题,并以南京市湖南路商业区居民地为试验数据,实现了自适应于用户位置的居民地简化算法。  相似文献   

意义概念的三个模型     

朱诗勇 《广东海洋大学学报》2007,27(2):14-18

弗雷格首先把意义概念引入分析哲学,其真正目的是坚持思想有公认的确定的正确与错误之分,为思想的客观分析提供基础,但其借助的意义即思想的实体化却有违于这个初衷。直接经验论者从直接经验论立场出发,企图在经验世界中找意义,最后走向否定意义本身,分析哲学由此遭到重创。从语言、思想、世界的关系的高度,把弗雷格的意义理论、观念论、用法论的合理精神结合起来,构建了语境—思想意义模型,认为语言的意义既是主观的东西,同时又具有特殊的客观性:由公共客观的语境决定的确定性。语言的意义就是特定语境中的语言所表达的人们的思想。  相似文献   

The household economy of pastoralists and wage-labourers in the Richtersveld, South Africa   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2  

S. Berzborn   《Journal of Arid Environments》2007,70(4):672

The Richtersveld is situated in an arid environment and its inhabitants are confronted with various hazards. Based on data collected during 22 months of ethnographic fieldwork, the livelihood strategies of Richtersvelders are explored. Besides a thorough examination of the diversified economy, the internal institutional arrangements for pooling and redistributing resources within households are analysed in this paper. Encouraging household members to engage in different activities and to share their income—as well as skills to manage the household budget properly—are integral to diversification and reducing the vulnerability of households. This study has shown that even in a community marked by considerable dependence on wage labour, almost three-quarters of the households are directly involved in stock farming. Although pastoralism still plays an important role for households, it has shifted from being the core economic activity to being an insurance against unemployment and contributing to subsistence. Stock farming serves to build up resilience through the diversification of economic activities inside the household. In the South African context, the relevance of activities dependent on land has implications not only for rural development, but also for post-apartheid land and agrarian reform.  相似文献   

Megacities – megarisks     

Friedemann Wenzel  Fouad Bendimerad  Ravi Sinha 《Natural Hazards》2007,42(3):481-491

We review the definitions, population trends, and characteristics of megacities. Characteristics of megacities are, apart from their size, their complexity in terms of administration, infrastructure, traffic, etc., and at the same time the speed of change. Vulnerabilities and risk potential are discussed using the examples of Mexico City and Mumbai. We present the experience accumulated in the 6 years work of the Earthquakes and Megacities Initiative (EMI, ) with more than 20 large cities around the world, mostly located in the developing world. On this background we analyze obstacles that keep megacities from developing an efficient approach towards disaster mitigation and define a strategy that might overcome these problems. The key element of this strategy is the development of a Disaster Risk Management Master Plan (DRMMP) for cities. Currently the Istanbul Earthquake Master Plan (IEMP) serves as best example for an appropriate strategy for disaster reduction in megacities.  相似文献   

Mountain hazards and the resilience of social–ecological systems: lessons learned in India and Canada     

James S. Gardner  Julie Dekens 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(2):317-336

Mountain regions are subject to a variety of hazardous processes. Earthquakes, landslides, snow avalanches, floods, debris flows, epidemics and fires, among other processes, have caused injury, death, damage and destruction. They also face challenges from increased populations, and expansion and intensification of␣activities, land uses and infrastructure. The combination of a dynamic bio- geophysical environment and intensified human use has increased the vulnerability of mountain social–ecological systems to risk from hazards. The ability of social–ecological systems to build resilience in the context of hazards is an important factor in their long-term sustainability. The role of resilience building in understanding the impact of hazards in mountain areas is examined and illustrated, in part, through examples from Canada and India. Resilient social–ecological systems have the ability to learn and adjust, use all forms of knowledge, to self-organize and to develop positive institutional linkages with other social–ecological systems in the face of hazards. The analysis suggests that traditional social–ecological systems built resilience through avoidance, which was effective for localized hazards. The more recent development and implementation of cross-scale institutional linkages is shown to be a particularly effective means of resilience building in mountain social–ecological systems in the face of all hazards.  相似文献   

Natural hazard impacts in small island developing states: A review of current knowledge and future research needs     

Kirstie Méheux  Dale Dominey-Howes  Kate Lloyd 《Natural Hazards》2007,40(2):429-446

Small island developing states (or SIDS) are exposed to a large number of natural hazards and many characteristics of small island developing states make them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural hazards. In spite of this acknowledged vulnerability, there are relatively few studies which focus on the impacts of natural hazards in these countries. This paper presents a review of our current state of knowledge of impacts in small island developing states and highlights a number of research needs. Central to these is the need to integrate natural hazards research within a sustainable development context and the need to exploit existing procedures such as government coordinated disaster impact assessments to generate a detailed understanding of natural hazards impacts.  相似文献   

Standardization of vulnerability maps   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Christoph Neukum  Heinz Hötzl 《Environmental Geology》2007,51(5):689-694

Groundwater vulnerability assessment schemes are used for the estimation of potential groundwater contamination at different scales and on different administrative levels. However, the term vulnerability is not standardized and the available methods are not able to give a unique assessment of vulnerability creating thus uncertainty in the interpretation and in further application concerning decision creation processes. To judge the information of vulnerability maps certainly and to value the general trends of vulnerability assessment of different methods, four different vulnerability methods of the parametric system group have been applied on a karst area in southwestern Germany to perform a comparative assessment and correlation of these vulnerability assessment methods, namely DRASTIC, PI, EPIK, and GLA. It is shown that by means of simple statistical considerations the first highly different vulnerability maps could be made more coherent after reclassification. The reclassified vulnerability assessments show a more consistent vulnerability distribution pattern and provide the possibility of area-wide validation of the maps as the chosen vulnerability classification is theoretically connected to the mean transit time of percolation water and is largely independent of the applied vulnerability assessment method.  相似文献   

Living through the tsunami: Vulnerability and generosity on a volatile earth     

Nigel Clark   《Geoforum》2007,38(6):1127-1139

How might geographers respond ‘generously’ to a disaster on the scale of the Indian Ocean tsunami? Critical geographers and other left intellectuals have chosen to stress the way pre-existing social forces conditioned human vulnerability, and have implied that ordinary people ‘here’ were implicated in the suffering of others ‘there’ through their positioning in chains of causality. Critics have also sought to expose the bias, unjustness and inappropriateness of post-tsunami patterns of donation and programs of aid and recovery. A supplement to this mode of critique is offered in the form of a view of disasters and human vulnerability that hinges on the idea of the self as ‘radically passive’: that is, as inherently receptive to both the stimuli that cause suffering, and to the demands of others who are suffering. All forms of thought – including geography and disaster studies should themselves be seen as ‘vulnerable’ and responsive to the impact to disasters. The idea that every ‘self’ bears the trace of past disasters – and past gifts of others – forms the basis of a vision of bodies and communities as always already ‘fractured’ by disaster – in ways which resist being ‘brought to light’. This offers a way of integrating human and physical geographies through a shared acknowledgement of what is unknowable and absent. It is also suggestive that gratitude might be an appropriate response to a sense of indebtedness to others – for who we are, as much as for what we have done.  相似文献   

Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S. Molina  C. D. Lindholm 《Journal of Seismology》2007,11(3):299-310

Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios.  相似文献