Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Wiesław Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(2):83-92

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.  相似文献   

非量测数码相机（哈苏H1D型）在南极项目生产中的应用     

巩淑楠  吴善昌 《东北测绘》2008,31(1):162-164

简要分析了非量测数码相机哈苏H1D在南极中山站及拉斯曼丘陵地区所获取的影像数据的几何精度,阐明了利用该影像数据进行空中三角测量,DLG,DOM制作的技术流程及作业过程中出现问题的处理方法。  相似文献   

三峡库区巫山县翠屏小区岩溶引起的地质灾害危险性研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

张加桂  殷跃平  蔡秀华  李洪涛  孙党生 《地球学报》2008,29(4):495-501

三峡库区移民迁建中发现的岩溶问题是一个重大工程地质问题。巫山县城翠屏小区是较早发现有确切岩溶证据的地方,研究证实小区三叠系嘉陵江组灰岩普遍遭受了强烈的岩溶作用。不同部位具有不同的岩溶特点和强度,在纵向上,从山顶到坡脚岩溶作用有增强的趋势;从地表向深部,有局部强烈岩溶层位。岩溶作用在小区产生了顺坡或顺层延伸的溶洞和深部蜂窝状溶孔。岩溶作用在小区形成了脖颈状溶蚀槽地、槽状谷地、溶蚀台地和与地貌相关的"飞雁状"褶皱、岩溶正断层及帚状密集节理带。岩溶过程中伴随着其他外营力作用,它们的相互耦合形成各种次生岩土体。岩溶轻则引起岩体质量降低,重则可能导致地面不均匀沉降、地裂缝、滑坡、崩塌、泥石流及地面塌陷地质灾害。  相似文献   

Structural evolution of the Bayanhongor region, west-central Mongolia     

Soichi Osozawa  Gonchig Tsolmon  Uondon Majigsuren  Jargalan Sereenen  Shigeaki Niitsuma  Naoyoshi Iwata  Terry Pavlis  Bor-ming Jahn 《Journal of Asian Earth Sciences》2008,33(5-6):337-352

Most of previous models suggest that the Central Asia Orogenic Belt grew southward in the Phanerozoic. However, in the Bayanhongor region in west-central Mongolia, volcanic arc, accretionary prism, ophiolite, and passive margin complexes accreted northeastward away from the Baydrag micro-continent, and hence the region constitutes the southwestern part of a crustal-scale syntaxis close to the west. The syntaxis should be original, because presumably reorientation due to strike-slip faulting can be ignored. It is reconfirmed that the Baydrag eventually collided with another micro-continent (the Hangai) to the northeast. A thick sedimentary basin developed along the southern passive margin of the Hangai micro-continent. This region is also characterized by an exhumed metamorphosed accretionary complex and a passive margin complex, which are both bounded by detachment faults as well as basal reverse faults which formed simultaneously as extrusion wedges. This part of the Central Asia Orogenic Belt lacks exhumed crystalline rocks as observed in the Himalayas and other major collisional orogenic belts. In addition, we identified two phases of deformation, which occurred at each phase of zonal accretion as D1 through Cambrian and Devonian, and a synchronous phase of final micro-continental collision of Devonian as D2. The pre-collisional ocean was wide enough to be characterized by a mid-ocean ridge and ocean islands. Two different structural trends of D1 and D2 are observed in accretionary complexes formed to the southwest of the late Cambrian mid-ocean ridge. That is, the relative plate motions on both sides of the mid-ocean ridge were different. Accretionary complexes and passive margin sediments to the northeast of the mid-ocean ridge also experienced two periods of deformation but show the same structural trend. Unmetamorphosed cover sediments on the accretionary prism and on the Hangai micro-continent experienced only the D2 event due to micro-continental collision. These unmetamorphosed sediments form the hanging walls of the detachment faults. Moreover, they were at least partly derived from an active volcanic arc formed at the margin of the Baydrag micro-continent.  相似文献   

新密市白石沟井田二1煤层充水因素分析     

王军强  崔蓓蕾 《中国煤炭地质》2008,(7):38-42

白石沟井田是近年来探明的大巾型井田,位于五指岭-白寨背斜东端之南翼,新密-新郑复向斜之北翼．岗亚腰断层和梁山断层之间的地垒构造上,其基本构造形态为-向东倾伏的宽缓背斜。二叠系下统山西组二1煤为主要开采煤层,探明二1煤资源量7206×10^7t。分析了井田含水岩组及其富水性,对断层带及其富水特征进行了研究,从矿床（二1煤层）充水的水源、通道、机理三个方面分析了矿床充水因素,指出二1煤层的主要充水水源为该煤层底板的石炭系岩溶裂隙-承压水,充水通道为断层带和灰岩的岩溶裂隙发育带,充水机理为矿压及高水头压力冲破煤层底板阻水层阻力,形成底鼓,迅速突水。认为该井田水文地质勘查类型为三类二型,提出了排除与隔离地表水体,预留防水安全煤柱,灌浆辅助采掘的井田突水防范措施。  相似文献   

甘肃大泉水——白沙岘矿区含煤地层及煤层赋存特征     

李玉畅 《中国煤炭地质》2008,(11):9-11

大泉水-白沙岘矿区位于甘肃省景泰县境内,在大地构造位置上处于北祁连加里东褶皱带东段,区内含煤地层为下石炭统靖远组和上石炭统羊虎沟组,属海陆交互相含煤沉积,根据岩性、岩相特征可划分为两个沉积旋回。该矿区主要可采煤层煤．层组赋存于羊虎沟组,厚1．71～9．00m,沿走向由西向东厚度变小,在大泉水井田可采厚度主要分布在V线以西,其东区段只是零星分布且不可采;在白沙岘井田煤层总厚度为2．99～5．15m,厚度变化小,属稳定煤层。煤：层组赋存于靖远组,仅分布在大泉水井田,厚1．33～8．88m,沿走向由西向东呈长透镜体状,西段和中段煤层发育较好．V线以东区段煤层变薄并出现无煤区。  相似文献   

Actinic flux and photolysis frequency comparison computations using the model PHOTOGT     

Carsten Blindauer  Vladimir Rozanov  John Philip Burrows 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1996,24(1):1-21

The accurate radiative transfer model GOMETRAN, initially designed to yield radiances at TOA in the wavelength range 240–790 nm, has been extended to allow for the computation of actinic fluxes down to 175 nm and for the calculation of photolysis frequencies in the atmosphere. The capability of the extended model PHOTOGT (PHOTOGOMETRAN) is demonstrated in a number of successful comparison studies both with recent experiments (ground-based, balloonborne, airborne) and model calculations of radiances, actinic fluxes and photolysis frequencies in the stratosphere and troposphere. In an atmospheric case study, the impact of new quantum yield data for the O₃ » O₂+O(¹ d) photodissociation channel on the photolytic production of O(¹ d) atoms in the lower atmosphere has been quantified.  相似文献   

华南二叠－三叠系的事件地层与生物地层界线   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

王成源 《地层学杂志》1994,18(2):110-118,145

华南二叠－三叠系界线研究应严格区分事件地层界线与生物地层界线。“界线粘土”层的底界即为事件地层界线。生物地层界线定义不能与“混生层”或“过渡层”的概念连在一起。长兴煤山忠心大队剖面是最好的二叠－三叠系全球界线层型剖面点（ＧＳＳＰ）。二叠－三叠系生物地层界线定义为ＨｉｎｄｅｏｄｕｓｐａｒｖｕｓＭｏｒｐｈｏｔｙｐｅ１的首次出现,其位置就在长兴剖面界线层（混生层）２的内部,比事件地层界线高１５ｃｍ。ＨｉｎｄｅｏｄｕｓｐａｒｖｕｓＭｏｒｐｈｏｔｙｐｅ１的首次出现,即为长兴阶的顶界。  相似文献   

青藏高原东南缘次林错岩体晚白垩世- 早新生代快速剥蚀     

沈续文  沈晓明  刘静  曾令森  杨超群  葛玉魁  邢宇堃  曾宪阳  王子君  李云帅  李金阳 《地质学报》2022,96(10):3332-3344

青藏高原东南缘是研究构造、地貌演化和气候变化相互作用的理想场所，前人研究主要揭示了晚始新世—早中新世和晚中新世以来的快速剥蚀事件，缺乏晚白垩世—早新生代时期地貌演化过程的研究。次林错花岗岩已有的低温热年代学数据覆盖了整个新生代时期，为探索该区域新生代早期的剥露演化历史提供了重要资料。该岩体新生代早期冷却事件是岩浆冷却单一作用的结果，还是受快速剥蚀作用的影响，目前仍然存疑，需要定量研究。因此，本文结合已有的岩石地化和年代学数据，对次林错花岗岩开展了锆石饱和温度和一维岩浆冷却模拟研究。锆石饱和温度计算结果表明次林错花岗岩的岩浆结晶温度介于647~705℃之间，属低温花岗岩。一维岩浆冷却模拟结果显示岩体侵位时的最小围岩温度为160~120℃，对应深度约为3. 7~5. 0 km。结合锆石和磷灰石(U- Th)/He年代学数据，本文认为该岩体在晚白垩世—早新生代时期(67~40 Ma)经历了一期剥蚀量至少为2 km的快速剥蚀事件。已发表成果的综合分析表明，此次快速剥露事件可能是整个青藏高原地区广泛存在的构造剥蚀事件，新特提斯洋的俯冲闭合与印亚板块的初始碰撞可能是触发此次大规模区域剥蚀的主要原因  相似文献   

珠江口盆地西江主洼油气差异分布机制     

刘培  张向涛  林鹤鸣  杜家元  冯进  陈维涛  梁杰  贾培蒙 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):52-64

西江主洼是珠江口盆地一个低勘探程度洼陷，油气差异聚集特征明显，但其机理不清。本文在断陷盆地油气成藏理论指导下，利用研究区地质、地球物理和地球化学等资料，开展了烃源岩、断盖组合、储集体系和运聚模式等方面的研究。结果表明，裂陷期沉降、沉积中心有序迁移，造成主力烃源岩自东向西由文四段迁移至文三段、文一+二段，控制东、西部油气差异分布。恩平组区域性泥岩发育且晚期断裂缺乏，导致油气纵向上更易聚集于下构造层；区域泥岩减薄尖灭或晚期断裂切开盖层的区域，上构造层有一定油气分布。"源-汇"类型从宏观上控制储层优劣，影响下构造层油气富集程度；"仓储"运移是控制上构造层油气规模聚集的主要模式。下构造层古近系应作为重点部署方向，东部围绕文四段、西部围绕文三段、文一+二段烃源岩构成的含油气系统展开；上构造层勘探需关注珠海组，在隆起周边寻找具备"仓储"运移模式的有利区带。  相似文献