青海黄南地区近54年蒸发量变化特征及其影响因子     

李延林  许显花  刘义花  沈菊  陈海莲 《气象科技》2019,47(2):269-275

利用青海省黄南地区近54a(1960—2013年)蒸发量、气温、降水量、日照时数、水汽压等资料,应用地理信息系统、数理统计、线性回归和Mann-Kendall检验等方法分析了黄南地区蒸发量的空间及时间变化趋势,并对黄南地区蒸发量变化特征及其影响因子进行了诊断研究。结果表明:黄南地区年平均蒸发量呈明显的下降趋势,20世纪60—70年代为蒸发量偏多阶段,80年代及后为偏少阶段;黄南地区蒸发量最大的季节是春季和夏季,各季蒸发量均呈减少趋势;黄南地区年蒸发量在1973年发生了由多到少的突变,春、夏、秋、冬季分别发在1973、1975、1976和1974年;分析影响蒸发量的相关因子,蒸发量与日照时数呈显著的正相关关系,与水汽压和降水量呈显著的负相关关系,日照时数的减小是蒸发量减少的主要影响因子。  相似文献   

卫星地面站雷电直击效应防护设计探讨     

孙俊德  李志鹏  赵洪升  王凯 《气象与环境科学》2019,42(2):124-128

卫星地面站雷电防护工程通常采用接闪杆作为天线主体的雷电直击效应防护措施,接闪杆的高度不仅影响其保护范围,而且影响其截闪概率。通过计算年预计雷击次数对截闪概率进行量化分析,结果表明,截闪概率近似与接闪杆高度平方成正比,采用过高的接闪杆将增大地面站遭受雷击电磁脉冲损坏的风险。为优化接闪杆设计,定义了保护体积的概念,并利用折线法与滚球法分别计算了三维立体空间内的保护范围。结果表明:接闪杆的保护范围与高度呈现非线性相关,当接闪杆超过一定高度(折线法超过30m,滚球法超过0.8倍滚球半径)后,对保护范围的影响十分有限;当接闪杆高度低于0.4倍滚球半径时,滚球法保护范围较大,反之则折线法保护范围较大。对接闪杆接闪瞬间周边的磁场强度分析结果表明,无屏蔽环境下地面站电子系统与接闪杆的常规距离远小于两者的理论安全距离,实际工程中难以通过增大接闪杆与卫星地面站的间距消除雷击电磁脉冲危害。为降低这一风险,卫星地面站直击雷防护应优先采用天线自带接闪杆的方式,条件不具备时也应尽量避免采用单支高大接闪杆,可选取适当的计算方法,采用多支较低接闪杆共同防护的方案。  相似文献   

10~30 d延伸期可预报性与预报方法研究进展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

章大全  郑志海  陈丽娟  张培群 《应用气象学报》2019,30(4):416-430

10~30 d延伸期的可预报性既依赖于初始条件,也与缓变的下垫面有关,寻找延伸期时段内可预报性较高的低频特征,识别延伸期的可预报性来源及影响的物理机制是提高延伸期预报水平的关键。近年延伸期可预报性来源、热带大气季节内振荡监测预测和影响等领域的研究取得较大进展,提出和应用了动力统计相结合以及大气低频信号释用等新的延伸期预报方法。对延伸期可预报性来源及其与初值和外强迫异常的关系分析表明,海气相互作用能提高亚洲和西太平洋区域延伸期时段大气环流和要素的可预报性。热带大气季节内振荡、平流层爆发性增温以及各种次季节尺度的海气、陆气耦合作用和大气响应均为延伸期预报提供了重要的可预报性来源。由于数值模式延伸期时段的预报性能与实际业务需求还存在一定距离,基于动力统计相结合和物理统计的延伸期预报方法被广泛应用于业务预报,表现出一定的预报技巧。  相似文献   

行星际等离子区对火星探测器距离观测量的影响          下载免费PDF全文

李杰  胡松杰 《海洋测绘》2010,30(2):32-34

根据Muhleman和Anderson在1981年给出的行星际空间等离子体密度模型,模拟计算了行星际等离子区对8GHz电波的距离延迟与太阳-地球-航天器夹角(SEP)和光路径长度(L)的关系。结果显示,在本文的模拟条件下,距离延迟随SEP和L从几毫米变化到几十米。最后,分别仿真了一条地火转移轨道和环火星轨道,计算了两种情况下行星际等离子区延迟对测站到航天器距离观测量的影响。  相似文献   

Effects of commercial timber harvesting on streamflow regimes in the Plynlimon catchments,mid‐Wales     

M. Robinson  A. Dupeyrat 《水文研究》2005,19(6):1213-1226

This paper presents the first large‐scale British study of the impacts of commercial forest cutting on stream‐flow regimes. The 70% forested headwaters of the River Severn are part of the intensively instrumented long‐term Plynlimon catchment study into the impact of land use on stream flow. The forest area, comprising predominantly Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), was planted mainly in the 1930s and 1940s. Harvesting commenced in the mid‐1980s and over the study period about half the forest has been felled. Changes in annual water yield and extreme flows were studied in four nested catchments ranging in area from about 1 to 10 km² and compared with an adjacent benchmark grassland catchment. As expected from earlier process studies the cutting of the forest increased total annual flows. Less expected was the clear evidence that the felling augmented low flows. This informs a long‐standing debate whether upland forestry increases or reduces baseflows. A particularly notable result was the lack of impact of the harvesting on storm peak flows. This may result from the application of forest management guidelines designed to reduce soil damage and erosion during the harvesting, and indicates that the forest itself has a limited impact on flooding. These findings are timely because British forest expansion peaked in the 30 years following the Second World War, and large areas of these woodlands are now approaching economic maturity and will be harvested in the next two decades. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Trend detection in river flow series: 1. Annual maximum flow / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 1. Débit maximum annuel     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

Results of a study on change detection in hydrological time series of annual maximum river flow are presented. Out of more than a thousand long time series made available by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC) in Koblenz, Germany, a worldwide data set consisting of 195 long series of daily mean flow records was selected, based on such criteria as length of series, currency, lack of gaps and missing values, adequate geographical distribution, and priority to smaller catchments. The analysis of annual maximum flows does not support the hypothesis of ubiquitous growth of high flows. Although 27 cases of strong, statistically significant increase were identified by the Mann-Kendall test, there are 31 decreases as well, and most (137) time series do not show any significant changes (at the 10% level). Caution is advised in interpreting these results as flooding is a complex phenomenon, caused by a number of factors that can be associated with local, regional, and hemispheric climatic processes. Moreover, river flow has strong natural variability and exhibits long-term persistence which can confound the results of trend and significance tests.  相似文献   

在GPS伪距观测值中发现径速偏差     

胡新康  李延兴 《大地测量与地球动力学》2000,20(1):43-50

在 GPS伪距观测值中 ,发现存在着随测站和卫星距离变化而产生的系统偏差。经过严密、系统的计算 ,证明它是普遍存在的一种自然现象。它的主要部分和径向速度呈线性关系 ,在卫星向测站运动时伪距值偏大 ,在卫星背向测站运动时伪距值偏小 ,并呈负对称 ,偏差最大可达60 m。  相似文献   

The historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled adjusted range     

E. H. Lloyd  D. Warren 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1988,2(3):175-188

It was remarked by Hurst in 1951 that the adjusted range gives the size of the smallest reservoir capable of providing a constant discharge equal to the mean inflow. Since that time this range and its rescaled modification, the Hurst range, have been widely discussed, not however primarily with a view to applying them to reservoir design problems, but rather on account of their possible relevance to the simulation of geophysical time series.Acknowledging the well-known conceptual weaknesses of adjusted ranges and the theoretical difficulties that inhibit their direct utilisation in the design and operation of real reservoirs, the authors argue that the interest displayed on ranges during the past few decades justifies the effort of eliminating one in particular of these weakness, namely their non-implementability as operating policies, a consequence of the fact that they can only be retrospectively evaluated. The paper proposes modifications in which the unknowable mean and standard deviation of future samples are replaced by the known mean and sample standard deviation of historical data, leading to the historically adjusted range and the historically rescaled and adjusted range. The latter is produced as an implementable approximation to Hurst's (1951) solution to the optimal reservoir problem.The expected values of the new ranges are evaluated and numerically tabulated.  相似文献   

以PC1井三维荧光光谱分析结果论油气垂向运移     

林玉祥  方炎华  朱雷  王振平 《地质论评》1994,40(7):161-167

本文以Pcl并不同深度岩心和地表土壤作为分析样品，通过三维全扫描荧光光谱等分析。揭示了该区油气垂向运移规律和地下油气的某些分布特征。研究表明，芳烃三维荧光光谱方法是研究芳烃组成变化最理想的手段之一，可以有效地解决油气运移等问题。  相似文献   

太行山中段的焚风   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

赵世林  王荣科  郭彦波  谭建龙  石志增 《气象》1993,19(2):3-6

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