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The growing availability of digital topographic data and the increased reliability of precipitation forecasts invite modelling efforts to predict the timing and location of shallow landslides in hilly and mountainous areas in order to reduce risk to an ever‐expanding human population. Here, we exploit a rare data set to develop and test such a model. In a 1·7 km2 catchment a near‐annual aerial photographic coverage records just three single storm events over a 45 year period that produced multiple landslides. Such data enable us to test model performance by running the entire rainfall time series and determine whether just those three storms are correctly detected. To do this, we link a dynamic and spatially distributed shallow subsurface runoff model (similar to TOPMODEL) to an in?nite slope model to predict the spatial distribution of shallow landsliding. The spatial distribution of soil depth, a strong control on local landsliding, is predicted from a process‐based model. Because of its common availability, daily rainfall data were used to drive the model. Topographic data were derived from digitized 1 : 24 000 US Geological Survey contour maps. Analysis of the landslides shows that 97 occurred in 1955, 37 in 1982 and ?ve in 1998, although the heaviest rainfall was in 1982. Furthermore, intensity–duration analysis of available daily and hourly rainfall from the closest raingauges does not discriminate those three storms from others that did not generate failures. We explore the question of whether a mechanistic modelling approach is better able to identify landslide‐producing storms. Landslide and soil production parameters were ?xed from studies elsewhere. Four hydrologic parameters characterizing the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the soil and underlying bedrock and its decline with depth were ?rst calibrated on the 1955 landslide record. Success was characterized as the most number of actual landslides predicted with the least amount of total area predicted to be unstable. Because landslide area was consistently overpredicted, a threshold catchment area of predicted slope instability was used to de?ne whether a rainstorm was a signi?cant landslide producer. Many combinations of the four hydrological parameters performed equally well for the 1955 event, but only one combination successfully identi?ed the 1982 storm as the only landslide‐producing storm during the period 1980–86. Application of this parameter combination to the entire 45 year record successfully identi?ed the three events, but also predicted that two other landslide‐producing events should have occurred. This performance is signi?cantly better than the empirical intensity–duration threshold approach, but requires considerable calibration effort. Overprediction of instability, both for storms that produced landslides and for non‐producing storms, appears to arise from at least four causes: (1) coarse rainfall data time scale and inability to document short rainfall bursts and predict pressure wave response; (2) absence of local rainfall data; (3) legacy effect of previous landslides; and (4) inaccurate topographic and soil property data. Greater resolution of spatial and rainfall data, as well as topographic data, coupled with systematic documentation of landslides to create time series to test models, should lead to signi?cant improvements in shallow landslides forecasting. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Stability analysis of the Vallcebre translational slide,Eastern Pyrenees (Spain) by means of a GIS 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
The stability of the landslide of Vallcebre has been evaluated by means of a GIS. The landslide mechanism is a translational failure which has been analysed as an infinite slope. Soil strength parameters and groundwater conditions are obtained from laboratory tests and monitoring devices. Geometric parameters necessary to compute the factor of safety at each individual cell are generated by interpolation from the boreholes present in the landslide. The results have been checked with the actual behaviour of the landslide and are consistent. The comparison between a conventional slope stability analysis and the GIS-based approach gives similar results, showing the feasibility of the latter. 相似文献
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黔中三叠纪地层研究新进展 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
通过对黔中地区区域地质调查,在二叠系—三叠系过渡层中发现了一系列的韵律层,并通过岩性岩相、矿物学、地球化学和地层古生物学研究,认为过渡层中韵律层是远源火山碎屑重力流沉积产物,并据古生物、沉积学、地层学研究将过渡层归属于三叠系。原安顺组下部“大汪段”之上、下发现大量牙形刺化石,根据岩性及古生物特征,将“大汪段”归入大冶组。黔中—黔南中三叠统陆源碎屑体系的物源来自江南古陆;菊石、双壳类化石层是浊流作用形成的事件沉积层。 相似文献
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大型水域水岩相互作用及其环境效应研究 总被引:26,自引:0,他引:26
以大量实际资料及深入的研究成果,较全面地论述了人工大型水域水岩相作用及其导致的主要地质灾害,包括水库诱发地震,库岸崩滑,水岩作用导致的大坝溃决,以及水库淤积导致的大面积环境恶化等问题。 相似文献
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Rainfall thresholds for landsliding in the Himalayas of Nepal 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Emmanuel J. Gabet Douglas W. Burbank Jaakko K. Putkonen Beth A. Pratt-Sitaula Tank Ojha 《Geomorphology》2004,63(3-4):131-143
Landsliding of the hillslope regolith is an important source of sediment to the fluvial network in the unglaciated portions of the Himalayas of Nepal. These landslides can produce abrupt increases of up to three orders of magnitude in the fluvial sediment load in less than a day. An analysis of 3 years of daily sediment load and daily rainfall data defines a relationship between monsoonal rainfall and the triggering of landslides in the Annapurna region of Nepal. Two distinct rainfall thresholds, a seasonal accumulation and a daily total, must be overcome before landslides are initiated. To explore the geomorphological controls on these thresholds, we develop a slope stability model, driven by daily rainfall data, which accounts for changes in regolith moisture. The pattern of rainfall thresholds predicted by the model is similar to the field data, including the decrease in the daily rainfall threshold as the seasonal rainfall accumulation increases. Results from the model suggest that, for a given hillslope, regolith thickness determines the seasonal rainfall necessary for failure, whereas slope angle controls the daily rainfall required for failure. 相似文献
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C. J. Hapke 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2005,30(6):679-697
High‐resolution historical (1942) and recent (1994) digital terrain models were derived from aerial photographs along the Big Sur coastline in central California to measure the long‐term volume of material that enters the nearshore environment. During the 52‐year measurement time period, an average of 21 000 ± 3100 m3 km?1 a?1 of material was eroded from nine study sections distributed along the coast, with a low yield of 1000 ± 240 m3 km?1 a?1 and a high of 46 700 ± 7300 m3 km?1 a?1. The results compare well with known volumes from several deep‐seated landslides in the area and suggest that the processes by which material is delivered to the coast are episodic in nature. In addition, a number of parameters are investigated to determine what influences the substantial variation in yield along the coast. It is found that the magnitude of regional coastal landslide sediment yield is primarily related to the physical strength of the slope‐forming material. Coastal Highway 1 runs along the lower portion of the slope along this stretch of coastline, and winter storms frequently damage the highway. The California Department of Transportation is responsible for maintaining this scenic highway while minimizing the impacts to the coastal ecosystems that are part of the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary. This study provides environmental managers with critical background data on the volumes of material that historically enter the nearshore from landslides, as well as demonstrating the application of deriving historical digital terrain data to model landscape evolution. Published in 2005 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献