Air pollutions and loan decision bias     

《Global Environmental Change》2022

Studies have largely discussed the impact of air pollution on the stock market. However, the latter requires certain financial knowledge and certain income, which may lead to sample selection bias. To address this concern, using unique data from online peer-to-peer lending platform, namely, RenRenDai, this paper analyzes the effects of air pollution on loan decisions in China. In the identification strategy, we use approximate exogenous and random daily level air pollution to alleviate the endogenous problem. In a preferred specification, results show that air pollution has significant positive effects on loan amounts with elasticity of 0.013. Such result is driven by health expenditure and behavioral bias. Specifically, after air pollution rises for two or three days, individuals will then increase loan amounts for health and consumption. However, air pollution has no proof of increasing investment. Our study provides new evidence on the effects of air pollution on cognitive performance, particularly on financial behavior. It then reveals the mechanism how air pollution influences loan decisions. In view of the negative impact of air pollution, we also need to know the risks it poses to the financial industry.  相似文献   

相似误差订正方法在风电短期风速预报中的应用研究     

赵文婧  李照荣  王小勇  李遥  闫晓敏  刘抗  邸燕君  达选芳 《热带气象学报》2021,37(1):73-81

为降低风电场短期预报风速误差,减少风电场短期风功率偏差积分电量,提高风电场发电功率预测准确率,分季节研究了相似误差订正方法对ECMWF单台风机预报风速的订正效果.结果表明:相似误差订正后不同风机预报风速的误差差距减小;预报风速的平均绝对偏差和均方根误差明显降低,其中夏季和秋季华能义岗风电场两个指标降低幅度均超过0.1 ...  相似文献   

CMA-GFS全球模式海洋边界层高度的主要偏差特征          下载免费PDF全文

龙海川  陈起英  朱克云  龚玺 《气象科技》2022,50(6):793-801

海洋边界层高度是表征海洋上空大气的水汽、热量、物质等垂直分布的重要特征量，同时在气候、污染、模式预报上有关键作用。然而，利用海洋边界层高度观测对数值天气预报模式进行诊断的研究很少。因此，本文利用2019—2020年GPS掩星资料计算出的海洋边界层高度的分布特征，对CMA GFS全球模式的预报性能进行分析，同时借助ERA5再分析资料对CMA GFS模式的偏差进行讨论。主要结论如下：①CMA GFS全球模式在西太平洋、南太平洋、南大西洋绝大部分海域预报的边界层高度比较合理;②模式在热带辐合带海域和南太平洋辐合带存在高估预报，初步分析与模式对热带深对流的抬升凝结高度的预报偏高有关。③模式和ERA5在南半球层积云所在区域均存在边界层高度预报偏低，初步分析可能是模式对南半球层积云顶辐射冷却驱动的湍流扩散偏小造成。④模式在有云的大气下主要呈现为预报偏高，中心值在200 m左右，而在晴空区域模式预报较为合理，偏差值范围较小，ERA5也存在类似的特点。  相似文献