Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Zhaozhi  JIANG Guangyu  WANG Xianwei  ZHANG Jianfeng 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(4):1370-1417

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.  相似文献   

二连盆地与地沥青密切相关的砂岩型铀矿床微观矿物特征及成因分析     

王文广 《铀矿地质》2016,(5):270-278

内蒙古二连盆地产在下白垩统碎屑岩系中的砂岩型铀矿床,其矿化与地沥青密切相关,有铀矿物存在之处必有地沥青;岩石中也普遍含地沥青。笔者通过蚀刻α径迹示踪,对铀含量在(200~1770)×10~(-6)的碎屑岩进行扫描电镜分析,采用分子量计算方法确定了该地区含铀碎屑岩中的铀是以多种超显微铀矿物形式存在。其中,以赛汉高毕铀矿床为代表,铀主要形成复成分磷钙铀矿。其它铀矿床也普遍有复成分磷钙铀矿产出:巴彦乌拉矿床样品因钙含量低、硅含量高,则铀石多于复成分磷钙铀矿;道尔苏矿床以铀石和磷铀矿为主,有少量沥青铀矿及复成分磷钙铀矿;哈达图矿床主要是沥青铀矿,未见复成分磷钙铀矿。除了地沥青之外,各矿床中与铀矿物共生的主要矿物还有草莓状、鲕粒状黄铁矿。由此推断,铀矿床的可能成因是:来自盆地深部的UH_3、PH_3、CaH_2、SiH_4、FeH_2、H_2S等在伴随油气向上运移过程中,由于温度、压力降低和氧化作用而发生分解及凝聚,形成草莓状、鲕粒状黄铁矿;同时派生出含U、P、Si、Ca等的氧化物的低温热水溶液,并最终结晶析出铀矿物,形成有大量黄铁矿共生的铀矿体;而油气经过长期挥发,最终演变成地沥青,成为铀矿物的载体。  相似文献   

不同刚度植物杆群对规则波传播及紊动特性影响研究     

谭超  黄本胜  刘达  邱静  王珍  吉红香 《海洋工程》2016,34(6):38-45

以不同刚度硅胶圆杆群为概化植物模型,测定其抗弯弹性模量,通过波浪水槽实验,研究规则波在不同刚度植物杆群内的流速分布、紊动特征及不同刚度杆群的消浪效果。实验结果表明,当波浪通过柔性杆群时,受其摆动的影响,流速周期变化从单峰型逐渐转变成双峰型,杆群刚度越小形成的二次波峰越明显;不同刚度杆群内水体紊动强度变化显示,杆群刚度越大,造成杆群内水体的紊动强度越大;随着杆群抗弯弹性模量的增大,其消浪系数也增大,消浪系数的增长与材料的抗弯弹性模量值非线性关系,而是在某一弹性模量范围内,对消浪系数的影响较为敏感。  相似文献   

煤渣改良土的抗冻能力及损伤特性研究     

张向东  任昆 《冰川冻土》2018,40(4):764-772

为研究煤渣改良土作为季节冻土区路基填料的抗冻能力,以不同煤渣掺量及不同养护龄期下的煤渣改良土为研究对象,利用GDS三轴试验系统开展了不同冻融次数下改良土的三轴压缩试验,获得了最佳的煤渣掺量及养护时间数据,提出冻融及加载综合影响下改良土的总损伤变量,并据此建立了损伤本构关系。结果表明：改良土的抗冻能力随着煤渣掺入量的增大出现先增强后减弱的变化趋势,随龄期的增长而逐渐增强。冻融循环对改良土物理力学性质的影响主要集中在前5次循环过程,超过5次后影响逐渐减弱。冻融加载总损伤变量能够较好地反映冻融及加载过程中改良土性质的劣化,据此建立的损伤本构关系具有一定的精度,可以为季节冻土区煤渣改良土路基工程提供参考。  相似文献   

月球岩石圈弹性厚度研究进展     

钟振  范广学  鄢建国  陈世国 《地质学报》2021,95(9):2692-2702

月球热演化研究需要丰富的月表热流数据.当前唯一的月表热流数据不完全可靠,单一数据也不足代表月球全球热流特征,通过月球岩石圈弹性厚度估算月表热流将会是有效的替代方案.针对弹性厚度估算的问题,概要回顾了以往估算的研究方法和成果,并对近年来利用重力地形导纳估算弹性厚度的理论方法进行了详细的介绍.近年来的研究结果表明月球全球岩石圈的Te可能较小,暗示月表地形形成于岩石圈冷却前较长的一段时间.个别研究成功地估算了个别质量瘤盆地的Te ,但大部分质量瘤盆地的较难估算,这不仅与质量瘤盆地复杂物理过程有关,还可能与岩石圈复杂的补偿机制有关.由于Te仅仅是岩石圈强弱的表征,不同研究方法得出的Te值存在差异是可能的.随着后续探月活动的开展,与国际社会合作布设月球热流载荷,结合后续研究对月球内部结构、月壳和月幔流变学特征的丰富认识,有望优化现有Te估算的理论与方法,进而为全球热流估算及热演化研究提供约束.  相似文献   

高寒冻土区生物结皮对土壤理化属性的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

明姣  盛煜  金会军  张泽  杜玉霞 《冰川冻土》2021,43(2):601-609

生物结皮是高寒地区地被层的重要组分之一。其作为地表特殊的结构层,能够改变地表结构及土壤理化属性,从而影响冻土环境。迄今为止,关于青藏高原高寒生态系统中生物结皮对土壤理化属性的影响尚不清楚。以青藏高原高寒冻土区生物结皮为研究对象,初步研究了生物结皮的特征及其对土壤理化属性的影响。结果表明：生物结皮在高寒草甸退化过程中广泛发育,主要以藻结皮为主,其盖度可达37.3%~51.7%,结皮层平均厚度为12.6 mm。由于生物结皮的发育,高寒地区5~20 cm土层粉粒含量有所增加,但差异不显著,而结皮层土壤田间持水量相比于裸地表层（2 cm）增加了10%~40%,结皮层容重较裸地降低了30%;两种类型藻结皮均显著增加了结皮层及其下0~20 cm土层土壤有机质,而深色藻结皮增加了结皮层及其下0~20 cm土层土壤全氮含量,浅色藻结皮仅增加了结皮层土壤全氮含量,对其下0~20 cm土层土壤全氮含量没有显著影响;生物结皮对土壤pH没有显著影响;生物结皮是高寒生态系统植被退化过程中的关键环节。研究结果为揭示生物结皮在高寒生态系统中发挥重要生态功能提供依据。  相似文献   

超参数对GRU-CNN混合深度学习弹性阻抗反演影响研究     

梁立锋  刘秀娟  张宏兵  陈程浩  陈锦华 《物探与化探》2021,(1):133-139

CNN-GRU混合深度学习反演弹性阻抗取得了较好的反演效果。但是,基于深度学习的叠前反演参数众多,包括内部深度学习网络可学习参数和外部超参数等,目前超参数选取对网络性能及计算速度影响尚缺乏系统性研究,这直接影响到了该方法的进一步推广应用。因此,本文在混合深度学习反演弹性阻抗基础上,探讨学习率、Epoch、batch_size、正则化参数及参与网络训练的测井个数等5个超参数对网络性能及计算速度的影响,为深度学习地震反演超参数选取提供依据。研究结果可为三维大面积深度学习反演提供一个可行的质控手段,对于推动深度学习方法在石油物探中广泛应用具有一定意义。  相似文献   

确定砂土动剪切模量和阻尼比的方法对比     

宋东松  冯震  金红山  孙逸涵 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(5):1366-1380

确定土体动剪切模量的常用方法有规范法、Kumar法和自相关函数法,确定相应阻尼比的方法有规范法、Das and Luo法、Kokusho法、Kumar法和互相关函数法,为了分析不同方法所产生差异,实现定量化对比分析,笔者以福建标准砂（粒径为0.5~1.0 mm）为研究对象,采用不排水的应力控制动三轴试验,探讨不同的确定土体动剪切模量和阻尼比方法的差异性,并给出了不同土体条件建议选用的方法。结果表明：1）3种方法确定动剪切模量的结果有一定的差异,随剪应变的增大结果的差异逐渐增大,有效围压对结果的差异性有所影响,当剪应变为4×10^-3,有效围压为100 kPa时,3种方法差异显著,相对误差最大接近20%;2）而5种方法确定阻尼比的结果差异显著,随着剪应变的增大,5种方法确定的阻尼比相对误差大体上均在迅速减小,只有规范法在有效围压为100 kPa时,其相对误差有较小的增大趋势;5种方法中,Kumar法确定的阻尼比最接近平均阻尼比,互相关函数法远高于平均阻尼比,Das and Luo法和Kokusho法确定的阻尼比基本一致但低于平均阻尼比。建议以后的工程应用中,加载方式为应力控制时,可采用自相关函数法确定动剪切模量,采用Kumar法确定阻尼比,二者确定的动剪切模量和阻尼比均最接近平均值。  相似文献   

Brittleness index predictions from Lower Barnett Shale well-log data applying an optimized data matching algorithm at various sampling densities     

David A.Wood 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):444-457

The capability of accurately predicting mineralogical brittleness index(BI)from basic suites of well logs is desir-able as it provides a useful indicator of the fracability of tight formations.Measuring mineralogical components in rocks is expensive and time consuming.However,the basic well log curves are not well correlated with BI so correlation-based,machine-learning methods are not able to derive highly accurate BI predictions using such data.A correlation-free,optimized data-matching algorithm is configured to predict BI on a supervised basis from well log and core data available from two published wells in the Lower Barnett Shale Formation(Texas).This transparent open box(TOB)algorithm matches data records by calculating the sum of squared errors be-tween their variables and selecting the best matches as those with the minimum squared errors.It then applies optimizers to adjust weights applied to individual variable errors to minimize the root mean square error(RMSE)between calculated and predicted(BI).The prediction accuracy achieved by TOB using just five well logs(Gr,pb,Ns,Rs,Dt)to predict BI is dependent on the density of data records sampled.At a sampling density of about one sample per 0.5 ft BI is predicted with RMSE～0.056 and R2～0.790.At a sampling density of about one sample per 0.1 ft BI is predicted with RMSE～0.008 and R2～0.995.Adding a stratigraphic height index as an additional(sixth)input variable method improves BI prediction accuracy to RMSE～0.003 and R2～0.999 for the two wells with only 1 record in 10,000 yielding a BI prediction error of＞±0.1.The model has the potential to be applied in an unsupervised basis to predict BI from basic well log data in surrounding wells lacking mineralogical measure-ments but with similar lithofacies and burial histories.The method could also be extended to predict elastic rock properties in and seismic attributes from wells and seismic data to improve the precision of brittleness index and fracability mapping spatially.  相似文献   

那曲高寒草地总体输送系数及地面热源特征     

郑汇璇  胡泽勇  孙根厚  谢志鹏  严晓强  王奕丹  付春伟 《高原气象》2019,38(3):497-506

利用中国科学院那曲高寒气候环境观测研究站那曲/BJ观测点的野外观测数据,估算了青藏高原那曲地区典型高寒草地下垫面的热量和水汽总体输送系数以及地表大气相对湿度因子,在此基础上利用中国气象局那曲气象站1980-2016年的常规业务观测数据,采用总体输送法计算并分析了那曲高寒草地地表通量特征。研究结果表明:(1)那曲/BJ观测点地表大气相对湿度因子γ的数值在33%~62%,9月最大,2月最小,热量和水汽输送系数CH和Cλ的季节变化范围分别在1.6×10^-3~2.7×10^-3和1.0×10^-3~2.0×10^-3,两者存在较大的差异。(2)1980-2016年那曲高寒草地感热通量总体呈现减弱趋势,而潜热通量呈现增强趋势,导致地面热源变化趋势不明显;分阶段来看,感热通量的变化在2004年前后发生转折,转折点前后的趋势为先减弱后增加,潜热通量在1994-2005年下降趋势明显,这也导致地面热源在1995-2005年有一个明显的减少。(3)年内季节变化上潜热通量相较于感热通量更明显,地面热源的季节变化更依赖于潜热通量的季节变化。  相似文献