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81.
LISA NAUGHTON-TREVES 《Geographical review》1997,87(1):27-46
ABSTRACT. Subsistence farmers near Kibale National Park, Uganda, fear and resent many wildlife species. In this article I compare records of crop damage by wildlife and livestock with local complaints about the worst animals and the most vulnerable crops. I discuss the concordance and discrepancies in complaints versus actual damage in light of physical parameters of risk and of social factors that shape perceptions and vulnerabilities. Crop losses were greatest at the edge of the forest, where immigrants are disproportionately represented. State proprietorship of wildlife amplifies local vulnerability and constrains traditional coping strategies, such as hunting. 相似文献
82.
Nuclear power plant siting provided the first significant public opportunity to examine nuclear safety and to affect nuclear policy. These discussions were prompted and fueled by perceptions of nuclear risk. Now, as we begin the process of nuclear decommissioning, we are finding that power plant removal—unsiting–is also likely to attract public interest. This paper presents a preliminary survey of how we are likely to react to this emerging theme, applying these findings within a land use context to see if it is likely to produce issues salient to the public. In so doing it also examines how these issues could affect decommissioning timing and type. It suggests that the most likely prospect is that power plants will remain on the landscape long after they are closed. 相似文献
83.
全国地质灾害趋势预测及预测图编制 总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13
区域地质灾害预测是地质灾害研究的难题。本文运用基于地理信息系统的风险评价方法对这一问题进行了探讨。将全国剖分为2700个单元,对地质灾害进行现状评价,并与已数字化的地质灾害图件进行单要素叠加,编制了全国地质现状等值线图,在现状评价基础上,对地质灾害进行趋势预测,将降雨条件、区域地震活动、区域地壳稳定程度、区域岩组条件和人类工程活动等作为区域地质灾害演变的因素,运用模糊综合评判模型进行综合评判,编制了1:600万中国地质灾害趋势预测图。 相似文献
84.
H. J. Nijhuis 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1997,86(2):322-331
The prediction of the hydrocarbon potential of a specific trap or of a number of specific traps (venture), referred to herein
as prospect appraisal, concerns a probabilistic exercise based on the quantification of geology in terms of structural closure,
reservoir quality, hydrocarbon charge, and the retention potential of the seal. Its objectives include: (a) prediction of
the hydrocarbon volumes that could be present in the trap from an analysis of its geologic attributes; (b) the amount of uncertainty
introduced in the volumetric prediction by the uncertainties in the subsurface geology; (c) the risk that one or more of the
essential attributes of the prospect are underdeveloped and recoverable reserves are absent. The uncertainty of the geologic
input requires a probabilistic approach, for which the Monte Carlo procedure is well suited.
Prospect appraisal forms the basis for decision-making in oil exploration and development and, therefore, should be reliable,
consistent, and auditable. This requires the use of a consistent methodology, the development of reliable models to quantify
the geologic processes involved, and the collection of comprehensive and relational databases for the many geologic variables.
As a result of data availability, uncertainty and risk tend to increase strongly from mature, producing basins to areas of
frontier exploration. This may complicate management of exploration portfolios.
Received: 1 July 1996/Accepted: 25 November 1996 相似文献
85.
在综合分析甘肃省东南部地震地质特征的基础上,利用模式识别方法判定未来地震危险区的可能位置.结果表明,本区易发生地震的地点与全新世断裂强烈活动段相吻合,从而提高了对未来地震危险区判定的可信度 相似文献
86.
87.
利用高分辨率卫星影像进行地震损失评价所需的城市特征识别 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
高分辨率卫星影像已经在一些国家的民用领域得到应用。利用高分辨率卫星影像来收集地震损失评价所需要的各类城市信息不仅高效和有较好的时间分辨率,而且它可以减少以往所必需的大量的代价高昂且费力的城市调查。基于在印度城市台拉登所做的研究,讨论了如何利用高分辨率卫星影像进行城市特征识别的一些问题,同时也简单论述了利用GIS/RS软件综合所得的数据以便用于地震损失评价的方法。 相似文献
88.
As one of the most powerful tools to reduce the earthquake loss, the Earthquake Disaster Management [EDM] and Insurance [EI] have been highlighted and have had a great progress in many countries in recent years. Earthquake disaster management includes a series of contents, such as earthquake hazard and risk analysis, vulnerability analysis of building and infrastructure, earthquake aware training, and building the emergency response system. EI, which has been included in EDM after this practice has been done for many years, include these contents: insurance model, financing. This paper presents the development of china in EDM and EI. The main contents include: (1) the statue and trend of earthquake disaster management and insurance in china; (2) the progresses and new methods about the seismic risk zonation and vulnerability analysis, and the future developing trend, the application of GIS in earthquake disaster assessment is introduced; (3) the way and illustration in building the earthquake disaster e 相似文献
89.
21世纪中国地质灾害防治形势与减灾战略思考 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
张樑 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(2):16-21
文章论述了21世纪中国地质灾害减灾面临的形势是既存在许多有利条件又存在多方面困难而面临严重挑战。提出21世纪地质灾害减灾战略:1.建立地质灾害防治安全维护体系;2.优先安排西部地区地质灾害防治工程,实施地质灾害风险管理;3.建立矿山地质灾害防治监督管理体系;4.城市地质灾害防治与土地利用相结合;5.加强我国地质环境监测与网站建设;6.针对地质灾害区域分布规律,采取分区减灾对策;7.加大地质灾害防治投入力度。 相似文献
90.
建设用地地质灾害危险性评估中几个问题的思考 总被引:7,自引:3,他引:7
金德山 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):101-103
结合工作实践,就建设用地地质灾害危险性评估及其成果审查工作中经常遇到的5个问题——评估灾害类型的确定原则,评估区环境条件分析深度的把握,现状、预测及综合地质灾害危险性评估内容的侧重点,土地适宜性评价的依据以及优秀评估成果的判定标准,提出了个人的理解和认识。供从事类似工作的同志参考。 相似文献