SIMULATION OF SEISMIC RISK IN THE DALIANGSHAN SUB-BLOCK AND ADJACENT AREAS USING THE NONLINEAR FRICTION FEM METHOD          下载免费PDF全文

YAO Qi  XING Hui-lin  XU Xi-wei  ZHANG Wei  LIU Jie 《地震地质》2018,40(1):171-185

Most earthquakes result from fault activity under heterogeneous loading and complex physical properties, also affected by fault structure and interaction between faults. Such a complicated mechanism makes often failures of the "seismic gap" theory in the effort of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction. This study attempts to address this issue using the finite element method(FEM).The friction behavior of faults can be used to simulate the non-uniformity of rupture processes of the seismogenic structure. So we use the FEM containing non-linear friction to simulate fault ruptures in the Daliangshan sub-block and adjacent areas, and compare the results with time-space evolution of historical M_S ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1840 in this region. In the simulation, the sequence of large-batch fault contact nodes change from "stick state" to "slip state" in short time, which mimics the sudden fault slip and the occurrence of major earthquakes. The results show that the fault breaking lengths from simulation are largely consistent with the magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the study area, such as the 1850 Puge-Xichang M_S7.5, and 1887 Shiping M_S7.0 earthquakes. The simulation also shows the development of seismic gaps and "gap breaks" by major earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault, such as 1955 Kangding M_S7.5 earthquake. Especially, the results illustrated the very long time of the seismogenic process of the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, and the corresponding sudden big rupture along the Longmenshan Fault, which is very similar to the observed surface rupture and very long incubation time and sudden co-seismic process. Then, this simulation is further applied to long-term earthquake prediction for the study area by calculation on a much longer time. The simulation results suggest that the Xiaojiang fault and the Zemuhe fault have relatively higher seismic risk, while moderate-sized earthquakes might occur on the Daliangshan fault and the Aninghe fault, and major earthquakes might rupture the northern segment of the Xianshuihe fault in a much longer time.  相似文献   

Modification of stochastic ground motion models for matching target intensity measures   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Alexandra Tsioulou  Alexandros A. Taflanidis  Carmine Galasso 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(1):3-24

Stochastic ground motion models produce synthetic time‐histories by modulating a white noise sequence through functions that address spectral and temporal properties of the excitation. The resultant ground motions can be then used in simulation‐based seismic risk assessment applications. This is established by relating the parameters of the aforementioned functions to earthquake and site characteristics through predictive relationships. An important concern related to the use of these models is the fact that through current approaches in selecting these predictive relationships, compatibility to the seismic hazard is not guaranteed. This work offers a computationally efficient framework for the modification of stochastic ground motion models to match target intensity measures (IMs) for a specific site and structure of interest. This is set as an optimization problem with a dual objective. The first objective minimizes the discrepancy between the target IMs and the predictions established through the stochastic ground motion model for a chosen earthquake scenario. The second objective constraints the deviation from the model characteristics suggested by existing predictive relationships, guaranteeing that the resultant ground motions not only match the target IMs but are also compatible with regional trends. A framework leveraging kriging surrogate modeling is formulated for performing the resultant multi‐objective optimization, and different computational aspects related to this optimization are discussed in detail. The illustrative implementation shows that the proposed framework can provide ground motions with high compatibility to target IMs with small only deviation from existing predictive relationships and discusses approaches for selecting a final compromise between these two competing objectives.  相似文献   

STUDY ON DYNAMIC CHANGE OF GRAVITY FIELD IN XIANSHUIHE FAULT ZONE AND THEIR RELATION TO THE OCCURRENCE OF M_S ≥ 5.0 EARTHQUAKES          下载免费PDF全文

LI Tie-ming  XU Yun-ma  YANG Yong-lin  FENG Sheng-tao 《地震地质》2018,40(6):1362-1379

Xianshuihe Fault, a main strong earthquake activity belt in southwest China, begins from Ganzi in the northwest, passes through Luhuo, Daofu, and Kangding, and then extents along the Dadu River valley. The fault is divided into two parts at Shimian, one part turns to south and converses to Anninghe Fault extending further to south, the other part, continuing to extend to southeast, cutting through Xiaoxiangling and then changing to Daliangshan Faults in the north of the Yuexi Basin, has the length of about 400km. Since 1700AD, there have happened 22 earthquakes larger than magnitude 6.0 and 8 earthquakes larger than magnitude 7.0. In this paper, we systematically collated and computed the gravity repetition measurement data along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1988, and by referring to the anomaly index of gravity field of the predecessor achievements, analyzed the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity field and the relation to the occurrence of ≥ M_S5.0 earthquakes. The mechanism of the regional gravity changes is further studied, and also the implication of strong earthquake risk because of the dynamic variation of gravity field in the near future is discussed.The results show that:1)The mobile gravity observation has the ability to detect crustal activity and M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquake events. 2)There is definite correspondence between interannual gravitational field change and the 8 earthquakes among the 13 M_S ≥ 5.0 earthquakes occurring in the surveying area since 1988, which can be determined according to the change of interannual gravitational field. Three M ≥ 6.0 earthquakes occurred 3~4 years after the abnormal image was developed, 4 earthquakes that occurred in the region of no data available were not determined. 3)A significant feature of the spatial-temporal variation of the regional gravity is a north-south run-through image before 2004, and characterized by the alternatively positive or negative variation in different year, the earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 occurring in this period were not distributed along the fault. Gravity variation magnitude indicates that there were two similar crustal material movement waves before 2004, corresponding to the course of earthquake space-time distribution from strong to weak in the study area. After 2010, the variation image shows that the local positive and negative zones are concurrent within a year, different from the image before 2004, and earthquakes of M_S ≥ 5.0 basically occurred on the fault. It is believed that the variation of gravity field since 1988 and the seismic distribution fit with the geodynamic mode of strong and weak stages of the northeast motion of Indian plate. According to the conclusion we can try to optimize gravity anomaly index. After the Kangding earthquake in 2014, the north segment of Moxi Fault was still subject to negative high value changes till 2017 and then the gravity variation was further developed to a four quadrant distribution image. Based on the analysis of this paper and the previous variation trend of gravity field, we believe that the north segment of Moxi Fault has the background of medium-long term, strong or large earthquake risk.  相似文献   

韧性城市研究进展          下载免费PDF全文

陈宣先  王培茗 《世界地震工程》2018,34(3):078-84

研究从韧性城市的概念和其主要研究领域两个方面来梳理其国内外研究进展,发现国外已形成社区韧性、城市网络韧性、城市灾害恢复力和城市灾害风险评估四个研究方面.而国内研究因起步晚,其研究深度和国外相比差距显著,基本处于概念及综述研究阶段。整体来看,韧性城市研究在区域宏观层面已初见成效,在城市中观和微观层面略显不足。  相似文献   

菲、芘、苯并(a)芘单一暴露及分别与α-萘黄酮(ANF)联合暴露对海水青鳉(Oryzias melastigma)胚胎发育毒性效应的比较研究     

穆景利  王新红  靳非  王菊英  洪华生 《海洋学报》2012,34(6):142-150

为了解和探讨3~5环PAHs对海水鱼类胚胎发育的毒性及作用方式,比较研究了菲(phenanthrene,Phe)、芘(pyrene,Py)、苯并(a)芘(benzo(a)pyrene,BaP)单一暴露和三者各自与α-萘黄酮(α-naphthoflavone,ANF)联合暴露对海水青鳉(marine medaka, Oryzias melastigma)胚胎发育的毒性效应。胚胎体内EROD活性、发育畸形、孵化率和心律等毒性指标被测定,结果显示:Phe,Py和BaP对海水青鳉胚胎体内EROD活性的诱导能力大小为BaP>Py>Phe,各化合物对EROD诱导与发育畸形之间的关系较为复杂,除Phe所引起的EROD诱导与畸形指数之间呈显著相关(r=0.95,p=0.015)外,Py和BaP均无相关性;在100 μg/dm3 ANF影响下,CYP1A活性诱导被抑制,但胚胎发育的畸形指数被显著提高,ANF分别与Phe,Py和BaP的联合暴露对胚胎发育呈潜在的协同作用。本文研究初步表明,3~5环PAHs化合物对海水青鳉胚胎发育的毒性作用方式可能不同;CYP1A活性抑制在PAHs混合物对海水青鳉胚胎发育的毒性作用过程中未起到缓解毒性的作用,CYP1A抑制剂与PAH型CYP1A诱导剂的混合物对鱼类胚胎发育具有潜在的协同毒性作用,现有的PAHs混合物毒性风险评价方法可能低估了实际环境中PAHs的风险;海水青鳉早期生活阶段的心脏发育对PAHs混合物暴露较为敏感,可推荐其作为生物标志物指示PAHs或溢油污染。  相似文献   

抚仙湖表层沉积物AVS与SEM分布特征及其生态风险评估     

李彪  荀凡  陈向超  马书占  王亚蕊  冯慕华 《湖泊科学》2019,31(1):72-80

以高原深水抚仙湖为研究对象,分析了全湖16个样点表层沉积物（0~5 cm）的酸可挥发性硫化物（AVS）和同步提取重金属（SEM）的分布特征,并利用∑SEM和AVS的物质的量浓度比对全湖重金属潜在生态风险进行了评估.结果表明：AVS在南北湖区分布存在明显差异,南部湖区分布均匀,平均含量仅为0.074±0.043 μmol/g,而北部湖区则由湖岸带向北湖心（N9）呈现出递增趋势,平均含量高达0.317±0.485 μmol/g.SEM在南北湖区分布较为集中,南部湖区主要集中在路居河口（S2）,北部湖区主要分布在老凹地（N5）和东大河口（N4）.除牛摩河口（S5）、梁王河口（N3）和北湖心（N9）外,其余所有点位[∑SEM]/[AVS]>1,且南部湖区平均[∑SEM]/[AVS]值（3.51±1.91）显著高于北湖湖区（2.19±2.10）.因此抚仙湖全湖尤其是南部湖区重金属生态风险应引起高度重视.  相似文献   

太湖沿岸区浅层底泥重金属污染分析及生态风险评价   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

陆志华  蔡梅  王元元  钱旭  潘明祥 《湖泊科学》2022,34(2):455-467

近年来太湖底泥重金属污染越来越受到各方关注.为了解太湖沿岸区底泥重金属污染状况,基于2018年太湖全湖污染底泥勘察项目中重金属监测数据,对梅梁湖、竺山湖、西部沿岸区、南部沿岸区、东太湖、贡湖6个太湖沿岸湖区浅层(0～30 cm深度区间)底泥中Hg、Cd、As、Pb、Cu、Zn、Cr、Ni 8种重金属元素含量进行分析,运...  相似文献   

太湖流域太浦河周边区域突发水污染潜在风险评估     

周宏伟  黄佳聪  高俊峰  闫人华  彭焱梅  曹菊萍  尚钊仪 《湖泊科学》2019,31(3):646-655

太浦河是太湖流域重要跨省界河流,沿岸区域污染源众多,下游分布重要水源地,存在突发水污染潜在风险,迫切需要开展区域污染源潜在风险评估,为突发水污染事件的风险防控提供科学依据.本研究通过太浦河周边区域的污染源调研,明确污染源的空间分布与污染源强,确定评估区域的主要污染物（化学需氧量、氨氮、锑、重金属铬、油品、危险化学品）,综合考虑污染源、河流水文、沿岸社会经济等因素,筛选突发水污染潜在风险评估指标,构建评估指标体系,评估突发水污染事件的综合风险,识别太浦河周边区域的主要突发水污染潜在风险源.研究结果表明：太浦河周边区域的高突发水污染风险区呈现片状或斑块状分布,主要包括大型污水处理厂区域、大型工业企业区域、加油站和危险化学品仓库集中分布区、太浦河沿岸工业企业区域、水源地周边工业企业区域,总面积为22 km²,占太浦河污染源风险评估范围总面积的1.4%,是突发水污染事件防控的重点区域.  相似文献   

长江中下游湖泊沉积物氮磷形态与释放风险关系   总被引：14，自引：2，他引：12  

张路  范成新  王建军  陈宇炜  姜加虎 《湖泊科学》2008,20(3):263-270

运用聚类分析、主成分分析和相关矩阵的统计分析手段,对长江中下游湖群共18个湖泊的沉积物氮磷释放风险以及湖泊沉积物、间隙水和上覆水中氮磷形态以及其他相关地球化学参数进行分析。草型和藻型湖泊的环境差异是造成氮磷释放风险的主要原因。氮磷释放风险与铁磷、藻类可利用磷、总氮、总磷、上覆水氮磷含量、间隙水氮含量、孔隙度和有机质含量间的关系最为密切。决定磷酸盐释放风险的主要形态磷是藻类可利用磷和铁磷,其他形态磷或者含量较低或者不易被转化释放,对磷酸盐释放风险影响较小。有机磷含量对磷的释放风险没有直接决定作用,但它与有机质含量间呈显著正相关。  相似文献   

水环境约束分区与空间开发引导研究——以无锡市为例   总被引：10，自引：2，他引：8  

陈雯  禚振坤  赵海霞  崔旭 《湖泊科学》2008,20(1):129-134

基于区域开发与水环境保护的相互作用关系,本文根据河湖水环境质量要求对地区开发的约束影响,分析水环境约束的区域差异及相应区域开发中水污染物排放的控制.以无锡市为例,综合考虑河湖水文及流域地貌等自然地理要素,将全市域划分为两个一级环境单元区.34个二级子环境单元区,作为水环境约束评价的基本单元;选择河湖水体使用功能、水体通达性、水质目标和引水通道、地貌特征等要素作为表征水环境约束的评价因子,运用GIS空间分析和统计分析方法,综合评价全市域水环境约束的等级分区.以此作为空间开发引导的依据,其中水环境约束较弱的地区可以适当布局水污染物排放量较大的生产生活项目.而水环境约束较强的地区需要严格控制乃至禁止水污染物排放量大的项目建设.  相似文献