预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王菊翠  曹明明  仵彦卿 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):35-41

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。  相似文献   

Carbonates calibrated against oceanographic parameters along a latitudinal transect in the Gulf of California, Mexico     

J. HALFAR  L. GODINEZ-Orta†  M. MUTTI‡  J. E. VALDEZ-HOLGUIN§  J. M. BORGES† 《Sedimentology》2006,53(2):297-320

Trophic resources are an important control governing carbonate production. Though this importance has long been recognized, no calibration exists to quantitatively compare biogenic assemblages within trophic resource fields. This study presents a field calibration of carbonate producers in a range of settings against high‐resolution in situ measurements of nutrients, temperature and salinity. With its latitudinal extent from 30° to 23° N, the Gulf of California, Mexico, spans the warm‐temperate realm and encompasses nutrient regimes from oligo‐mesotrophic in the south to eutrophic in the north. Accordingly, from south to north carbonates are characterized by: (i) coral‐dominated shallow carbonate factories (5–20 m water depth) with average sea‐surface temperatures of 25 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 31 °C), average salinities of 35·06‰ and average chlorophyll a levels, which are a proxy for nutrients, of 0·25 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 0·48, min. 0·1). (ii) Red algal‐dominated subtidal to inner‐shelf carbonate formation (10–25 m) in the central Gulf of California exhibiting average temperatures of 23 °C (min. 18 °C, max. 30 °C), average salinities of 35·25‰, and average Chl a levels of 0·71 Chl a m^?3 (max. 5·62, min. 0). (iii) Molluskan bryozoan‐rich inner to outer shelf factories in the northern Gulf of California (20–50 m) with average sea surface temperatures of only 20 °C (min. 13 °C, max 29 °C), average salinities of 35·01‰, and average contents of 2·2 mg Chl a m^?3 (max. 8·38, min. 0). By calibrating sedimentological data with in situ measured oceanographic information in different environments, the response of carbonate producers to environmental parameters was established and extrapolated to carbonates on a global scale. The results demonstrate the importance of recognizing and quantifying trophic resources as a dominant control determining the biogenic composition and facies character of both modern and fossil carbonates.  相似文献   

新疆和田河水资源利用与绿色走廊生态建设研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

阿布都热合曼·哈力克  克力木江 《地域研究与开发》2006,25(2):111-114

水是和田河绿色走廊形成与演变最重要的因素。虽然和田河径流量年际变化比较平稳．但年内径流量洪枯季节差异十分悬殊，人工调配水资源的难度较大。随着人类开发利用水资源规模扩大．水资源时空分布格局发生变化，中上游人工绿洲面积扩大，下游绿色走廊植被衰竭，土地荒漠化日趋严重，走廊生态环境持续恶化。文章分析了和田河水资源变化对下游绿色走廊兴衰的影响过程，提出了合理利用水资源、保护绿色走廊生态环境的对策建议。  相似文献   

基于芬兰经验的我国森林资源型城市的发展研究--以伊春市为例     

姜琳琳  张宁  臧淑英 《世界地理研究》2006,15(2):48-53,65

资源型城市的可持续发展问题一直是学术界的研究热点,但对于森林资源型城市的研究却不多见。本文概括介绍了芬兰的资源和经济发展情况,系统分析了芬兰这样一个以森林起家的经济发达国家的成功经验;并以伊春为例提出了森林资源型城市经济转型和可持续发展可资借鉴的对策和建议。  相似文献   

四川盆地地下卤水资源优势及综合开发前景   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3       下载免费PDF全文

林耀庭 《盐湖研究》2006,14(4):1-8

四川盆地地下卤水自震旦系至白垩系各层系皆有分布。卤水具有分布广泛、资源丰富、品质优异、高承压及气卤同产等优势特点,是四川得天独厚的液态矿产资源。卤水中含有K+、Br-I、-、B3+、Li+、Sr2+、Rb+等多种有用组分,皆为国家紧缺和紧俏物质,其含量多数可达工业开采品位,为优质化工原料水,经济价值极高,综合开发利用前景广阔。  相似文献   

Real eukaryotes and precipitates first found in the Middle Riphean stratotype, southern Urals   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

V. N. Sergeev  Lee Seong-Joo 《Stratigraphy and Geological Correlation》2006,14(1):1-18

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Subsurface dams to harvest rainwater— a case study of the Swarnamukhi River basin, Southern India   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

N. Janardhana Raju  T. V. K. Reddy  P. Munirathnam 《Hydrogeology Journal》2006,14(4):526-531

Declining water level trends and yields of wells, deterioration of groundwater quality and drying up of shallow wells are common in many parts of India. This is mainly attributed to the recurrence of drought years, over exploitation of groundwater, increase in the number of groundwater structures and explosion of population. In this subcontinent, the saving of water has to be done on the days it rains. India receives much of its rainfall in just 100 h in a year mostly during the monsoon period. If this water is not captured or stored, the rest of the year experiences a precarious situation manifest in water scarcity. The main objective behind the construction of subsurface dams in the Swarnamukhi River basin was to harvest the base flow infiltrating into sandy alluvium as waste to the sea and thereby to increase groundwater potential for meeting future water demands. An analysis of hydrographs of piezometers of four subsurface dams, monitored during October 2001–December 2002, reveals that there is an average rise of 1.44 m in post-monsoon and 1.80 m in the pre-monsoon period after the subsurface dams were constructed. Further, during the pre-monsoon month of June, much before construction of subsurface dams in October 2001, the water level was found fluctuating in the range of 3.1–10 m, in contrast to the fluctuation ranging from 0.4 to 3.1 m during the period following the construction of dams. Hence, the planning of rainwater harvesting structures entails thorough scientific investigations for identifying the most suitable locations for subsurface dams.  相似文献   

塔里木河流域水资源分析系统开发研究     

张云  左其亭  王小平  凌敏华 《干旱区地理》2006,29(6):823-828

根据水资源评价工作的基本任务和实际需求,充分利用计算机及地理信息系统技术,研究和探讨了塔里木河流域水资源分析系统(T-WRAS)的功能、结构、数据组织及其实现关键技术。同时介绍了降水量—高程量化模型(PEM)、自调节水量模拟模型(SRWQ)、基于“发展综合指标测度”的协调程度量化方法(DD)等一些模型和方法。该系统可对三源流汇流过程进行分析,对研究区进行数量、质量、开发利用及综合评价,评价结果以图、文、表等多种形式表达。系统的框架、建设思路及相关模型的研究有一定的理论和现实意义。  相似文献   

石羊河流域水资源与生态环境变化及其对策研究   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：10  

张永明  宋孝玉  沈冰  沈清林  张晓伟 《干旱区地理》2006,29(6):838-843

通过对石羊河流域水资源利用现状及存在问题的分析,认为流域水资源已经严重超载,进行流域综合治理已刻不容缓。针对流域面临严峻的水资源及生态环境问题,提出分抢救和治本两个阶段来解决问题,近期以抢救为重点。按照南护水源、中建绿洲、北防风沙的治理思路,实行治理上游、改造中游、拯救下游的流域综合治理,以遏制生态环境恶化的趋势为目标,以提高用水效率为核心,以流域水资源统一管理为保证,实现流域水资源的可持续利用,支撑经济社会的可持续发展,达到人与自然和谐共处。  相似文献   

遥感技术在黑竹沟风景旅游资源调查分类与评价中的应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

张瑞英  何政伟  张雪峰 《干旱区地理》2006,29(6):909-914

随着信息技术的发展,遥感成为了旅游资源调查评价的新手段。阐述了运用遥感新技术对四川省乐山市黑竹沟风景旅游区旅游资源进行调查的过程,并结合现场调研和相关资料对其旅游资源进行了分类和评价。首先对黑竹沟风景旅游区2003年的ETM影像数据遥感图像进行了处理,然后建立了解译标志进行旅游资源信息的提取和分析,最后对黑竹沟风景旅游区的旅游资源进行了客观全面的分类和评价。黑竹沟的旅游资源可分为2大类、7亚类、21个基本类型,是一处景源内容丰富、景象多变的旅游区,发展潜力巨大。  相似文献