The Sahelian desertification debate: a view from the American south-west     

Charles F. Hutchinson 《Journal of Arid Environments》1996,33(4):519-524

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祁连山地区1310年以来湿润指数及其年际变幅的变化与突变分析   总被引：23，自引：0，他引：23  

张志华  吴祥定 《第四纪研究》1996,16(4):368-378

本文通过用树木年轮资料重建的祁连山地区5～7月份1310年以来的湿润指数序列，建立了一个反映该地区湿润指数年际变幅序列，对这两个序列分别进行了等级分类和干湿、强弱的时段分析，并用最大熵谱分析法对这两个序列的不同时段分别进行了周期分析。采用HK突变检验方法对这两个序列分别进行了突变分析，发现祁连山地区的湿润指数及其年际变幅存在明显的突变年份。  相似文献   

中国东部6区域近1000年干湿序列的重建和气候跃变分析   总被引：54，自引：6，他引：54       下载免费PDF全文

张德二  刘传志  江剑民 《第四纪研究》1997,17(1):1-11

本文利用我国的历史气候记载，为东部6区域重建了最近1033年的时间分辨率为1年的区域于湿气候序列，讨论其可靠性，并分析其变化的准周期性和跃变特征。跃变分析采用移动t检验方法，分析各区域干湿气候的世纪尺度和10～20年尺度的跃变现象，辨识跃变信号的参考年代，指出北方各区域的跃变趋势相同，但有时与长江下游地区相反，以及跃变信号在寒冷气候背景下较多出现等特点。  相似文献   

Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between C and Be records     

Edouard Bard  Grant M. Raisbeck  Franoise Yiou  Jean Jouzel 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1997,150(3-4):453-462

For about the last 30 years it has been recognized that the high frequency component of the tree rings ¹⁴C/¹²C record is dominated by the modulation of the cosmic ray flux by the solar wind. In particular, it has been demonstrated that the three most recent periods of low sunspot occurrence were characterized by high values of atmospheric ¹⁴C/¹²C. During the last millennium other periods of high ¹⁴C/¹²C values were observed but their solar origin is still debatable. In the present work we compare these fluctuations with an independent record of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be measured in ice from the South Pole to check the solar origin of the observed ¹⁴C/¹²C variations. In order to compare quantitatively the results obtained on ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C, it is necessary to take into account the different behaviour of these two cosmogenic isotopes, and especially the damping effect of the carbon cycle in the case of ¹⁴C. As an input to a 12-box numerical model we used the relative fluctuations of the ¹⁰Be concentrations record measured in South Pole ice and converted it into a synthetic ¹⁴C record. We took into account the fact that ¹⁰Be modulation is enhanced in polar regions due to the orientation of the geomagnetic field. As expected, the fluctuations of the modelled ¹⁴C record are much smaller (a factor of 20) than those observed for the raw ¹⁰Be record. In addition, the variations are smoother and shifted in time by a few decades. The ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C variations closely resemble the ¹⁴C measurements obtained on tree rings (R = 0.81). In particular, it is easy to identify periods of maximal ¹⁴C/¹²C which correspond to solar activity minima centred at about 1060, 1320 (Wolf), 1500 (Spörer), 1690 (Maunder) and 1820 (Dalton) yr A.D. Cross-correlation calculations suggest that there is no significant lag between the ¹⁰Be-based ¹⁴C and the tree-ring ¹⁴C records. Our study strongly suggests the dominance of the solar modulation on the cosmonuclide production variations during the last millennium.  相似文献   

从天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川变化估计近百年来该地区夏季升温   总被引：6，自引：6，他引：6  

王宁练  刘时银 《冰川冻土》1997,19(3):207-213

通过冰川波动历史来揭示气候变化是一种重要的方法。然而，以往有关这一方面的研究大都是一些定性的。文章试图依据冰种变化来定量的研究气候变化，并且通过近百年来天山乌鲁木齐河源１号冰川的变化，揭示出本世纪以来该河源地区夏季气温上升约０．２３￣０．２５℃，同时，对于该冰川不同长度规模时的气候敏感性也进行了讨论。  相似文献   

湖相沉积物与全球变化的研究     

ＤｏｕｇｌａｓＦ．Ｗｉｌｉａｍｓ 《地学前缘》1997,(Z1)

为预测未来全球的气候变化，必须了解在过去水圈、气圈与生物圈的各自作用以及它们是如何相互影响的。为此，ＩＧＢＰ（国际地圈－生物圈计划）组织了过去全球变化项目（ＰＡＧＥＳ）。湖相沉积物保存着与ＰＡＧＥＳ有关的不同时空尺度的丰富的地球系统历史信息，特别是湖相沉积物包含着可以说明全球气候变化的水圈与生物圈的陆源组分的反应。这种信息对了解影响气候变化的流域是如何发展的至关重要。笔者应用西伯利亚贝加尔湖与中国西北部青海湖作为两个实例，叙述了多学科研究湖相沉积物物理与化学参数，并利用这些参数测定了晚更新世湖区及其流域对过去气圈的变化以及日幅射分布的影响  相似文献   

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CHINA ANOMALOUS CLIMATE VARIATION AND ENSO CYCLE ON THE QUASI-FOUR-YEAR SCALE     

朱艳峰  陈隆勋  宇如聪 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2004,10(1):1-13

1 INTRODUCTION Much work has been done addressing the relationship between anomalous climate changes and ENSO in China and the results vary much. For instance, Li et al. (1987) [1] think that the Mei-yu (sustained rain) starts later, lasts shorter and pre…  相似文献   

Numerical Studies with a Regional Atmospheric Climate Model Based on Changes in the Roughness Length for Momentum and Heat Over Antarctica     

C. H. Reijmer  E. Van Meijgaard  M. R. Van Den Broeke 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,111(2):313-337

A regional atmospheric climate model is used toexamine the effect of changes in the roughnesslengths of momentum (_z0m) and heat (_z0h)on the structure of the lower atmosphere and on thesurface energy fluxes over Antarctica. Fourexperiments were carried out in which _z0mand/or _z0h were altered with respect to acontrol experiment. The changes consisted of (1) alowering of _z0m from a field aggregated froma vegetation map with an orographic correction basedon the European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts _z0m field, to a constant value of10^-3 m; and (2) a lowering of _z0h from a valueequal to _z0m to a constant value of 10^-3 mor a value dependent on the wind speed via a surfacerenewal model. A reduction of _z0m results in theexpected increase in near-surface wind speed. It alsoresults in an increase in the depth of the layer in whichsouth-easterly near-surface winds prevail, and in adecrease in the strength of the large-scale flow overthe continent, in particular in summer. In theescarpment region a decrease of _z0m is foundto result in too high wind speeds. Surface temperatureson average decrease while atmospheric temperaturesincrease, resulting in an increase of near-surfacestatic stability. Changes in roughness lengths donot significantly change the temperature profiles.The surface fluxes, on average found reduced, aremodelled best by using the _z0h based on thesurface renewal method.  相似文献   

吐哈盆地西南缘水西沟群古气候演变特征及其层序地层学意义     

吴伯林  徐高中 《华东地质学院学报》2004,27(2):135-140

通过对水西沟群(J1-2sh)古植物、古孢粉化石组合特征等系统的研究，对八道湾组(J1b)、三工河组(J1s)、西山窑组(J1x)古气候类型进行了区分；并据此认为西山窑组(J1x)为一套气候地层层序，相应划分为四个体系域：即低水位、湖泊扩张，高水位及湖泊收缩体系域。再结合一些岩性岩相等特殊标志，对十红滩东部外围地层层序进行了划分，结果与十红滩矿区地层层序本质是一致的。  相似文献   

Dynamik der Schilfröhrichte am Bodensee unter dem Einfluss von Wasserstandsvariationen     

Michael Dienst  Klaus Schmieder  Wolfgang Ostendorp 《Limnologica》2004,34(1-2):29

On the basis of different sets of aerial photos the dynamics of the reed bed areas of Lake Constance were investigated in relation to the dynamics of the water levels. The objectives of the study were to quantify the changes of reed areas due to different flood events in the last decades and their recovery in the time periods between these events. The results should given information of the relevance of water level variations on reed bed dynamics and the regeneration times of reed beds after extreme disturbance events.Following the extreme flood at Lake Constance in 1999 the reed belts of Lake Constance lost approximately 30 ha (24%) of the lakeside reed beds. The loss is comparable to the situation in the late 1960s, when approximately 40 ha died back due to the extreme flood in 1965 and the high spring water levels in the subsequent years. In the time period between the extreme floods of 1965 and 1999, the reed areas expanded to nearly 85% of the area before 1965. The expansion rates increased with increasing distance to the flood event of 1965. Especially in periods with series of years of low spring water level the expansion rates were high.The damage degrees of the reed areas in the years 2000 and 2002 showed a clear relation to the elevation (i.e. average water level) of the stands. The damage degree increased with decreasing elevation. Furthermore the regeneration process of severely damaged stands was related to the elevation level of the stands. Whereas stands at high elevation regenerate fast, those at low elevation died off completely in the years after the extreme flood. This supports the hypothesis that the water level flutuations play a major role in the reed dynamics of Lake Constance.As a consequence of the climate change an increase in the frequency of high spring water levels is expected. Thus, it seems unlikely that reed stands will ever expand again to the same area as before 1965.  相似文献