Development and Utilization of the World’s and China’s Bulk Mineral Resources and their Supply and Demand Situation in the Next Twenty Years   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZHANG Zhaozhi  JIANG Guangyu  WANG Xianwei  ZHANG Jianfeng 《《地质学报》英文版》2016,90(4):1370-1417

Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world’s and China’s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world’s and China’s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources(especially iron ores and copper ores) are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserveproduction ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world’s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015–2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4–0.7 billion tons(Gt), 5.0–6.0 million tons(Mt), 1.1–8.9 Mt, 1.0–2.0 Mt, 1.2–2.0 Mt and 4.8–5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China’s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores(crude steel), potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores(crude steel) will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassium salt, 2020 for refined lead, 2021 for bauxite(primary aluminum), 2022 for refined copper and 2023 for zinc. China’s demand for iron ores(crude steel), bauxite(primary aluminum) and zinc in the future 20 years will decline among the world’s demand, while that for refined copper, refined lead and potassium salt will slightly increase. The demand for bulk mineral products still remains high. In 2015–2035, China’s accumulative demand for iron ores(crude steel) will be 20.313 Gt(13.429 Gt), 0.304 Gt for refined copper, 2.466 Gt(0.616 Gt) of bauxite(primary aluminum), 0.102 Gt of refined lead, 0.138 Gt of zinc and 0.157 Gt of potassium salt, and they account for the world’s YOY(YOY) accumulative demand of 35.17%, 51.09%, 48.47%, 46.62%, 43.95% and 21.84%, respectively. This proportion is 49.40%, 102.52%, 87.44%, 105.65%, 93.62% and 106.49% of that in 2014, respectively. From the supply side of China’s bulk mineral resources, it is forecasted that the accumulative supply of primary(mine) mineral products in 2015–2035 is 4.046 Gt of iron ores, 0.591 Gt of copper,1.129 Gt of bauxite, 63.661 Mt of(mine) lead, 0.109 Gt of(mine) zinc and 0.128 Gt of potassium salt, which accounts for 8.82%, 13.92%, 26.67%, 47.09%, 33.04% and 15.56% of the world’s predicted YOY production, respectively. With the rapid increase in the smelting capacity of iron and steel and alumina, the rate of capacity utilization for crude steel, refined copper, alumina, primary aluminum and refined lead in 2014 was 72.13%, 83.63%, 74.45%, 70.76% and 72.22%, respectively. During 2000–2014, the rate of capacity utilization for China’s crude steel and refined copper showed a generally fluctuating decrease, which leads to an insufficient supply of primary mineral products. It is forecasted that the supply insufficiency of iron ores in 2015–2035 is 17.44 Gt, 0.245 Gt of copper in copper concentrates, 1.337 Gt of bauxite, 38.44 Mt of lead in lead concentrates and 29.19 Mt of zinc in zinc concentrates. China has gradually raised the utilization of recycled metals, which has mitigated the insufficient supply of primary metal products to some extent. It is forecasted that in 2015–2035 the accumulative utilization amount of steel scrap(iron ores) is 3.27 Gt(5.08 Gt), 70.312 Mt of recycled copper, 0.2 Gt of recycled aluminum, 48 Mt of recycled lead and 7.7 Mt of recycled zinc. The analysis on the supply and demand situation of China’s bulk mineral resources in 2015–2035 suggests that the supply-demand contradiction for these six types of mineral products will decrease, indicative of a generally declining external dependency. If the use of recycled metal amount is counted in, the external dependency of China’s iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc and potassium salt will be 79%, 65%, 26%, 8%, 16% and 18% in 2014, respectively. It is predicted that this external dependency will decrease to 62%, 64%, 20%,-0.93%, 16% and 14% in 2020, respectively, showing an overall decreasing trend. We propose the following suggestions correspondingly.(1) The demand peak of China’s crude steel and potassium salt will reach during 2015–2023 in succession. Mining transformation should be planned and deployed in advance to deal with the arrival of this demand peak.(2) The supply-demand contradiction of China’s bulk mineral resources will mitigate in the future 20 years, and the external dependency will decrease accordingly. It is suggested to adjust the mineral resources management policies according to different minerals and regions, and regulate the exploration and development activities.(3) China should further establish and improve the forced mechanism of resolving the smelting overcapacity of steel, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc to really achieve the goal of "reducing excess production capacity".(4) In accordance with the national strategic deployment of "One Belt One Road", China should encourage the excess capacity of steel, copper, alumina and primary aluminum enterprises to transfer to those countries or areas with abundant resources, high energy matching degree and relatively excellent infrastructure. Based on the national conditions, mining condition and geopolitics of the resources countries, we will gradually build steel, copper, aluminum and lead-zinc smelting bases, and potash processing and production bases, which will promote the excess capacity to transfer to the overseas orderly.(5) It is proposed to strengthen the planning and management of renewable resources recycling and to construct industrial base of renewable metal recycling.(6) China should promote the comprehensive development and utilization of paragenetic and associated mineral species to further improve the comprehensive utilization of bulk mineral resources.  相似文献   

降水井改造为原位生产井的工艺设计及应用     

吕士东  孙友宏  李强  郭威  周科  王思远 《世界地质》2016,35(4):1185-1194

为有效地扩大油页岩原位开采区域和节约油页岩原位开采的成本,需将废置的降水井改造成为原位生产井。根据降水井与原位生产井井身结构的相似性,对农安油页岩原位开采先导试验工程基地的降水井改造工艺进行了设计和优化。同时研发了偏心轮式套管割管装置及三爪式套管打捞装置用于拔管施工。工程实践证明,该工艺具有步骤简单、合理、高效以及价格低廉等特点。偏心轮式套管割管装置及三爪式套管打捞装置应用在降水井改造中,均取得理想的效果。  相似文献   

新疆罗布泊超大型卤水钾矿发现20年     

宣之强 《化工矿产地质》2016,(1):60-64

"罗布泊超大型卤水鉀矿"的发现,是中国众多地学科学家40年探寻预测的。王弭力研究员及其团队,于1995年秋首次踏进罗布泊"罗北凹地",当年找到4356万t优质卤水鉀矿;经五年科研和勘探,查明儲量达2.5亿t、为超大型卤水鉀矿。理论创新,成为完成科硏和勘探的关键,加速了百万吨级"罗钾公司"硫酸钾肥生产成功投产。古丝绸之路上生命回归、一颗新星"罗布泊"镇诞生,"百年罗钾"资源保障科研探钾即将启动,中国几代"钾盐人"的梦想成真。  相似文献   

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines     

《Applied Ocean Research》2016

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.  相似文献   

Geological Controls on the CBM Productivity of No.15 Coal Seam of Carboniferous–Permian Taiyuan Formation in Southern Qinshui Basin and Prediction for CBM High-yield Potential Regions     

ZHANG Zheng  QIN Yong  ZHUANG Xinguo  LI Guoqing  LIU Donghai 《《地质学报》英文版》2018,92(6):2310-2332

Coalbed methane (CBM) resources in No.15 coal seam of Taiyuan Formation account for 55% of the total CBM resources in southern Qinshui Basin (SQB), and have a great production potential. This study aims at investigating the CBM production in No.15 coal seam and its influence factors. Based on a series of laboratory experiments and latest exploration and development data from local coal mines and CBM companies, the spatial characteristics of gas production of No.15 coal seam were analyzed and then the influences of seven factors on the gas productivity of this coal seam were discussed, including coal thickness, burial depth, gas content, ratio of critical desorption pressure to original coal reservoir pressure (RCPOP), porosity, permeability, and hydrogeological condition. The influences of hydrological condition on CBM production were analyzed based on the discussions of four aspects: hydrogeochemistry, roof lithology and its distribution, hydrodynamic field of groundwater, and recharge rate of groundwater. Finally, a three-level analytic hierarchy process (AHP) evaluation model was proposed for predicting the CBM potentials of the No.15 coal seam in the SQB. The best prospective target area for CBM production of the No.15 coal seam is predicted to be in the districts of Panzhuang, Chengzhuang and south of Hudi.  相似文献   

新型同径分层止水工艺在地热探采深井的应用          下载免费PDF全文

杨联锋  段云星 《探矿工程》2021,48(8):33-39

原平大营地热探采结合深井完钻井深3088 m,为探明494~3088 m变质岩地层的水文地质参数和水源补给情况,基于岩心和测井资料划分4个抽水试验段,且试验后需要恢复目的含水层。根据“一孔同径分层止水”原则,设计了管内止水托盘止水、管外止水伞止水的新型同径分层止水工艺。该工艺简化了井身结构,避免了管外投粘土球、注水泥等堵塞含水层的情况。现场实施表明,该工艺止水效果完全满足水文地质抽水试验要求,可为同类工程提供经验和借鉴。  相似文献   

随机森林模型预测岩溶区酸性煤矿井水锰污染   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李冲 《中国煤炭地质》2021,(3):43-47,59

酸性煤矿井水严重威胁地下水的水质。如何更有效对受影响区域的地下水源进行动态监测是当前的一个关键问题。采用随机森林中的回归模型,利用自变量(采空区水位、岩溶水位、pH值、泉水流量、电导率)和因变量(污染离子浓度)的相关性,建立回归模型;使用测试数据进行误差分析,结果证明模型准度较高,所得预测值具有参考价值;得出各自变量对因变量影响的重要程度,分析结果与实际情况相符合。试验表明,随机森林回归模型在酸性煤矿井水污染预测方面具有适用性,可作为辅助手段监测水质污染情况,对今后工作有一定的指导意义和经济价值。  相似文献   

河南省人工防雹作业指挥系统研发及应用     

鲍向东  丁建芳  杜春丽  刘磊  郭丽梅 《气象与环境科学》2019,42(1):127-134

利用河南省历史气象资料,结合先进的防雹理论与技术,系统分析和总结了河南省冰雹过程的天气尺度与中尺度概念模型,并根据三维冰雹云数值模式及雷达探测、闪电定位、卫星、自动站数据,研发出河南省人工防雹作业指挥系统。该系统包括天气形势分析子系统和作业决策指挥子系统。天气形势分析子系统可根据大尺度形势背景、中尺度系统特征及三维冰雹云数值模式和卫星、闪电、自动站资料,对可能降雹区进行预测。作业决策指挥子系统通过对雷达数据产品的二次开发,完成雷达资料处理、产品生成及风暴自动识别、分类、预警,并根据参数的变化和雹云的移动方向,对下游作业区进行预警及输出作业方案。整个系统基于VS2005开发平台,使用c++开发语言,利用图层分层管理将地理信息、雷达实时观测资料、雷达二次产品、高空资料、火箭和高炮作业点等信息分层显示。系统自动化程度高,操作简便,为河南省冰雹天气预报预警提供了可参考的技术指标体系。  相似文献   

基于混合架构的空间数据库一致性探讨     

黄艳菊 《地理空间信息》2006,4(2):61-62

探讨了混合架构下C/S和B/S对空间数据并发修改操作带来的空间数据库一致性问题,提出了在同一数据库中建立过渡数据库和生产数据库的方案,并以某省森林防火地理信息系统为例验证了该方法的可行性。  相似文献   

浅谈市(州)普通地图集的设计   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

鲁明东 《地理空间信息》2006,4(5):86-88

介绍了设计编制地图集中的若干问题:如何确定开本及比例尺大小,如何设计整饰与装帧等。提出了设计编制地图集也应看成是一项科学研究过程的观点。  相似文献