The Roles of Spatial Locations and Patterns of Initial Errors in the Uncertainties of Tropical Cyclone Forecasts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

CHEN Boyu  MU Mu 《大气科学进展》2012,29(1):63-78

In this study,a series of sensitivity experiments were performed for two tropical cyclones (TCs),TC Longwang (2005) and TC Sinlaku (2008),to explore the roles of locations and patterns of initial errors in uncertainties of TC forecasts.Specifically,three types of initial errors were generated and three types of sensitive areas were determined using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP),first singular vector (FSV),and composite singular vector (CSV) methods.Additionally,random initial errors in randomly selected areas were considered.Based on these four types of initial errors and areas,we designed and performed 16 experiments to investigate the impacts of locations and patterns of initial errors on the nonlinear developments of the errors,and to determine which type of initial errors and areas has the greatest impact on TC forecasts.Overall,results from the experiments indicate the following:(1) The impact of random errors introduced into the sensitive areas was greater than that of errors themselves fixed in the randomly selected areas.From the perspective of statistical analysis,and by comparison,the impact of random errors introduced into the CNOP target area was greatest.(2) The initial errors with CNOP,CSV,or FSV patterns were likely to grow faster than random errors.(3) The initial errors with CNOP patterns in the CNOP target areas had the greatest impacts on the final verification forecasts.  相似文献   

低纬地区平流层准零风层时空分布特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈柏青  刘毅  刘靓珂  沈新勇  张玉李 《气候与环境研究》2018,23(6):657-669

利用ERA-Interim逐日再分析资料,使用EOF（Empirical Orthogonal Function）等统计方法,分析了中国低纬地区平流层准零风层（Quasi-Zero Wind Layer,QZWL）的时空分布特征,旨在为平流层飞艇寻找合适的运行区域及时段。低纬地区QZWL主要受到热带平流层大气环流季节性变化和平流层准两年振荡（Quasi-BiennialOscillation,QBO）的影响。在二者共同作用下,低纬地区QZWL高概率带可分为南北两支:“北支”出现在10月至次年4月间,QBO东风位相时期,“北支”中心纬度基本维持在20°N附近,西风位相时期,“北支”中心纬度随高度降低南移明显;“南支”仅出现在QBO西风位相期间,5~11月在5°N附近,其余时段与“北支”合并,可以认为是“北支”向南延伸。通过对比海口站和南沙站Weibull概率密度函数与风速资料的拟合结果,表明Weibull分布可以很好拟合不同QBO位相下平流层逐月风速频率分布,根据Weibull分布计算特定的累积概率风速值,可以作为选取适宜平流层飞艇运行的低风速风场的判据。海口站30~50 hPa高度11月至次年4月、南沙站50~70 hPa高度QBO西风位相时期全年均较为适合平流层飞艇运行。  相似文献   

Algorithm Studies on How to Obtain a Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP)     

SUN Guodong  MU Mu  ZHANG Yale 《大气科学进展》2010,27(6):1311-1321

The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which is a nonlinear generalization of the linear singular vector (LSV), is applied in important problems of atmospheric and oceanic sciences, including ENSO predictability, targeted observations, and ensemble forecast. In this study, we investigate the computational cost of obtaining the CNOP by several methods. Differences and similarities, in terms of the computational error and cost in obtaining the CNOP, are compared among the sequential quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm, the limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS) algorithm, and the spectral projected gradients (SPG2) algorithm. A theoretical grassland ecosystem model and the classical Lorenz model are used as examples. Numerical results demonstrate that the computational error is acceptable with all three algorithms. The computational cost to obtain the CNOP is reduced by using the SQP algorithm. The experimental results also reveal that the L-BFGS algorithm is the most effective algorithm among the three optimization algorithms for obtaining the CNOP. The numerical results suggest a new approach and algorithm for obtaining the CNOP for a large-scale optimization problem.  相似文献   

利用星载测雨雷达探测结果对夏季中国南方对流和层云降水气候特征的分析   总被引：10，自引：5，他引：5  

刘鹏  傅云飞 《大气科学》2010,34(4):802-814

本文利用热带测雨卫星(TRMM)上搭载的测雨雷达(PR)十年的探测结果, 对夏季中国南方对流降水和层云降水的气候特征进行了分析。研究结果表明:夏季中国南方层云降水频次较对流降水频次高出两倍以上, 而对流降水强度至少是层云降水强度的4倍; 就整个中国南方而言, 这两种类型的降水对总降水量贡献相当。日变化分析表明夏季中国南方大部分地区的对流降水主要出现在午后, 层云降水出现时间并不集中, 但这两类降水的频次日变化均显示了明显的地域性特征; 对降水廓线日变化的分析结果表明, 对流降水和层云降水廓线的日变化主要表现在“雨顶”高度的日变化, 即对流降水云的厚度有明显的日变化变化特征, 不同地区的降水廓线存在明显的差异。降水率剖面分析结果显示了对流降水的“雨顶” 高度日变化较层云降水剧烈, 降水率的日变化则相反, 且层云降水率的地域性特征更强。  相似文献   

豫西突发性暴雨成因   总被引：8，自引：1，他引：7  

王新敏  张霞  范学峰  何立富 《气象科技》2010,38(1):15-20

利用常规观测、FY-2C气象卫星资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对2007年7月28～30日豫西卢氏县引发历史罕见山洪暴雨的进行了天气动力学和中尺度分析。结果表明:西太平洋副热带高压增强与贝加尔湖高压叠加形成阻塞形势,其西侧低空急流携带大量水汽与较强的锋生场交汇在豫西,导致了这次极端暴雨事件的发生;大尺度强斜升运动区中,低层存在一个条件性对称不稳定机制,引发中β云团生成、合并、发展,从而造成暴雨。  相似文献   

DIAGNOSIS AND IDENTIFICATION OF DYNAMIC CORRELATION FACTORS BETWEEN WEST-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND EAST ASIA MONSOON SYSTEM INDEXES     

董兆俊  张韧  余丹丹  程明  万雷 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2008,14(2):141-144

Based on the daily reanalysis data of NCEP / NCAR and by using the method of phase space reconstruction, the point conditional probability density of the subtropical high ridge index are determined and then used, together with their power spectra, to seek the correlation between them and individual monsoon-affecting factors and their power spectra. Through diagnosis, six indexes are discovered that have the most important effects on the subtropical high index. The results of the diagnosis indicate that the technique can identify the factors which are dynamically correlated. It can offer the basis in determining and choosing dynamic conceptual factors.  相似文献   

Interstellar extinction toward the ultradeep Galactic field of the Chandra observatory from 2MASS data     

M. G. Revnivtsev  R. A. Burenin  S. Yu. Sazonov 《Astronomy Letters》2009,35(5):305-310

We have measured the interstellar extinction in the region of ultradeep Galactic-field observations by the Chandra telescope (l ^II, b ^II) ≈ 0.1–1.42 using photometric data from the 2MASS infrared allsky survey. The angular resolution of our interstellar extinction map is 1′.8. We show that the interstellar extinction has a minimum, A _V ～ 3.4, near the center of the Chandra field of view and increases to A _V ～ 5.8–6 at the edge of the field of view. In addition, we show that the bulk of the extinction is gained in the Galactic disk and is approximately the same for all bulge stars. Our results will be subsequently used to process the Chandra data and to estimate the properties of the stellar population in this region.  相似文献   

全局局部细节感知条件随机场的高分辨率遥感影像建筑物提取     

朱祺琪  李真  张亚男  李佳伦  杜禹强  关庆锋  李德仁 《遥感学报》2021,25(7):1422-1433

条件随机场模型由于其较强的上下文信息建模能力,被广泛应用于建筑物提取任务中。然而,面对高分辨率遥感影像丰富的地物信息,基于条件随机场的提取方法存在建筑物边界模糊的问题。本文提出了一种全局局部细节感知条件随机场框架,该框架提出全局局部一体化D-LinkNet,在有效利用多尺度建筑物信息的同时保留局部结构信息,解决了传统条件随机场一元势能丢失边界信息的问题。同时,该框架融合分割先验以缓解建筑物类内光谱差异较大的影响,利用更大尺度的上下文信息来精确提取建筑物,并引入局部类别标记代价从而保持细节信息以获取清晰的建筑物边界。实验结果表明,该框架在WHU卫星和航空数据集上的精度评价指标均优于其他对比方法,其IoU分别达89.82%和91.72%,对于复杂场景下的建筑物信息能够获得较好的提取效果。  相似文献   

Scalar field theory and energy-momentum problem of Yilmaz-Rosen metric in general relativity and teleparallel gravity     

Sezgin Aygün  İsmail Tarhan  Hüsnü Baysal 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2008,314(4):323-330

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Conditional statistics of Reynolds shear stress in flow over 2D dunes in the presence of surface waves          下载免费PDF全文

Satya P. Ojha 《水文研究》2014,28(18):4829-4842

This study presents the analysis of the velocity fluctuations to describe the conditional statistics of Reynolds shear stress in flow over two‐dimensional dunes in the presence of surface waves of varying frequency. The flow velocity measurements over the dunes are made using a 16‐MHz 3D acoustic Doppler velocimeter. The joint probability distributions of the normalized stream‐wise and vertical velocity fluctuations at different vertical locations are calculated in the trough region of a selected dune in quasi‐steady region of the flow. Third‐order moments of the stream‐wise and vertical velocity components over one dune length are also calculated throughout the flow depth for understanding the effect of surface waves on relative contributions to the Reynolds shear stress due to the four quadrant events. The structure of instantaneous Reynolds stresses is analysed using quadrant analysis technique. It has been shown that the contributions of second and fourth quadrant events to the Reynolds shear stress increase with increase in the frequency of surface waves. In fact, the largest contribution to turbulent stresses comes from the second quadrant. The cumulant discard method is applied to describe the statistical properties of the covariance term u′w′. Conditional statistics and conditional sampling are used to compare the experimental and theoretical relative contributions to the Reynolds shear stress from the four quadrant events. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献