Evaluating suitability of a tephra dispersal model as part of a risk assessment framework     

Gordon N. Keating  Jon D. Pelletier  Greg A. Valentine  William Statham 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

In volcanic risk assessment it is necessary to determine the appropriate level of sophistication for a given predictive model within the contexts of multiple sources of uncertainty and coupling between models. A component of volcanic risk assessment for the proposed radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain (Nevada, USA) involves prediction of dispersal of contaminated tephra during violent Strombolian eruptions and the subsequent transport of that tephra toward a hypothetical individual via surface processes. We test the suitability of a simplified model for volcanic plume transport and fallout tephra deposition (ASHPLUME) coupled to a surface sediment-transport model (FAR) that calculates the redistribution of tephra, and in light of inherent uncertainties in the system. The study focuses on two simplifying assumptions in the ASHPLUME model: 1) constant eruptive column height and 2) constant wind speed and direction during an eruption. Variations in tephra dispersal resulting from unsteady column height and wind conditions produced variations up to a factor of two in the concentration of tephra in sediment transported to the control population. However, the effects of watershed geometry and terrain, which control local remobilization of tephra, overprint sensitivities to eruption parameters. Because the combination of models used here shows limited sensitivity to the actual details of ash fall, a simple fall model suffices to estimate tephra mass delivered to the hypothetical individual.  相似文献   

A parametric and comparative study of different tephra fallout models     

S. Scollo  A. Folch  A. Costa 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

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On the dynamics of volcanic columns: A comparison of field data with a new model of negatively buoyant jets     

G. Carazzo  E. KaminskiS. Tait 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

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Quilotoa volcano — Ecuador: An overview of young dacitic volcanism in a lake-filled caldera     

Minard L. Hall  Patricia A. Mothes 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008

Quilotoa volcano, an example of young dacitic volcanism in a lake-filled caldera, is found at the southwest end of the Ecuador's volcanic front. It has had a long series of powerful plinian eruptions of moderate to large size (VEI = 4–6), at repetitive intervals of roughly 10–15 thousand years. At least eight eruptive cycles (labeled Q-I to Q-VIII with increasing age) over the past 200 ka are recognized, often beginning with a phreatomagmatic onset and followed by a pumice-rich lapilli fall, and then a sequence of pumice, crystal, and lithic-rich deposits belonging to surges and ash flows. These unwelded pyroclastic flows left veneers on hillsides as well as very thick accumulations in the surrounding valleys, the farthest ash flow having traveled about 17 km down the Toachi valley. The bulk volumes of the youngest flow deposits are on the order of 5 km³, but that of Q-I's 800 yr BP ash-fall unit is about 18 km³. In the last two eruption cycles water has had a more important role.  相似文献   

长白山天池火山千年大喷发空降碎屑物的数值模拟   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4  

于红梅  许建东  赵谊 《地震地质》2007,29(3):522-534

文中以Suzuki火山灰扩散数学模型为基础,考虑了空气参数随海拔高度的变化和不同大小的颗粒由于内含气泡数量的不同而造成的密度不同,计算了不同尺寸颗粒的最终沉降速度和沉降时间。并对喷发柱扩散概率浓度的计算公式进行了修正,对长白山天池火山千年大喷发空降碎屑物的空间分布进行了数值模拟。模拟时根据风速随高度的变化应用3个模型:1)固定风速30m/s;2)风速从地球表面线性增加到对流层顶部,在平流层的速度为对流层顶部风速的0.75倍(又称MW1模型);3)风速在对流层与MW1相同,但是从对流层顶部到20km高处风速线性减小,20km高度以上的风速为对流层顶部的10%(又称MW2模型)。通过与前人的结果进行比较,说明了模型的合理性,最后分析了模拟结果与前人结果之间存在差异的原因  相似文献   

Contrasting compositions of Mariana Trough fallout tephra and Mariana Island arc volcanics: a fractional crystallization link     

S. M. Straub 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1995,57(6):403-421

Discrete Quaternary (<400 ka) tephra fallout layers (mostly <1 cm thick) within the siliceous oozes of the central Mariana Trough at 18°N are characterized by medium-K to high-K subalkalic volcanic glasses (K₂O=0.8–3.2 wt.%) with high large-ion lithophile elements (LILE)/high-field-strength elements (HFSE) ratios and Nb depletion (Ba/La35; Ba/Zr3.5; La/Nb4) typical for convergent margin volcanic rocks. Compositional zoning within layers ranges from basaltic to dacitic (SiO₂=48–71 wt.%; MgO=0.7–6.5 wt.%); all layers contain basaltic andesites. The tephra layers are interpreted as single explosive eruptive events tapping chemically zoned reservoirs, the sources being the Mariana arc volcanoes (MAV) due to their proximity (100–400 km) and similar element ratios (MAV: Ba/La=36±7; Ba/Zr=3.5±0.9). The glasses investigated, however, contrast with the contemporaneous basaltic to dacitic lavas of the MAV by being more enriched in TiO₂ (1.2 wt.%; MAV0.8 wt.%), FeO^* (10 wt.%, MAV8–9 wt.%), K₂O (1.1 wt.%; MAV0.8 wt.%) and P₂O₅ (0.4 wt.%; MAV0.2 wt.%). (Semi-)Incompatible trace elements (including Rare Earth Elements (REE)) of the basaltic-andesitic and dacitic glasses match those of the dacitic MAV lavas, which became enriched by fractional crystallization. Moreover, the glasses follow a tholeiitic trend of fractionation in contrast to MAV transitional trends and have a characteristic P₂O₅ trend that reaches a maximum of 0.6 wt.% P₂O₅ at 57 wt.% SiO₂, whereas MAV lavas increase linearly in P₂O₅ from 0.1 to 0.3 wt.% with increasing silica. Both explosive and effusive series are interpreted to have evolved in common magma reservoirs by convective fractionation. Similar parental magmas are suggested to have separated into coexisting Si-andesitic to dacitic and basaltic melts by in situ crystallization. The differentiated melt is interstitial in an apatite-saturated crystalline mush of plag+px±ox±ol at the cooler chamber margins in contrast to the less differentiated basaltic to basaltic-andesitic magmas, which are not yet saturated in apatite and occupy the chamber interior. Reinjection of interstitial melt into the chamber interior and mixing with larger melt fractions of the interior liquid (mixing ratios about 1: 8–9) can explain the paradoxical behavior of apatite-controlled P and MREE variation in the basaltic andesite glasses and their MAV dacite-like fractionation patterns. The process may also account for the exclusively tholeiitic trend of fractionation of the glass shard series, but in situ crystallization alone cannot cause their absolute enrichment in (semi-)incompatible elements. The newly mixed melt is suggested to form the basaltic end member of the glass shard series. However, it must have become physically separated from the main MAV magma body (possibly by density-driven convective fractionation) in order to allow for further evolution of the contrasting geochemical paths as well as differentiation.  相似文献   

The volcanic history of Volcán Alcedo,Galápagos Archipelago: A case study of rhyolitic oceanic volcanism     

Dennis Geist  Keith A. Howard  A. Mark Jellinek  Scott Rayder 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1994,56(4):243-260

Volcán Alcedo is one of the seven western Galápagos shields and is the only active Galápagos volcano known to have erupted rhyolite as well as basalt. The volcano stands 4 km above the sea floor and has a subaerial volume of 200 km³, nearly all of which is basalt. As Volcán Alcedo grew, it built an elongate domal shield, which was partly truncated during repeated caldera-collapse and partial-filling episodes. An outward-dipping sequence of basalt flows at least 250 m thick forms the steepest (to 33°) flanks of the volcano and is not tilted; thus a constructional origin for the steep upper flanks is favored. About 1 km³ of rhyolite erupted late in the volcano's history from at least three vents and in 2–5 episodes. The most explosive of these produced a tephra blanket that covers the eastern half of the volcano. Homogeneous rhyolitic pumice is overlain by dacite-rhyolite commingled pumice, with no stratigraphic break. The tephra is notable for its low density and coarse grain size. The calculated height of the eruption plume is 23–30 km, and the intensity is estimated to have been 1.2x10⁸ kg/s. Rhyolitic lavas vented from the floor of the caldera and from fissures along the rim overlie the tephra of the plinian phase. The age of the rhyolitic eruptions is 120 ka, on the basis of K-Ar ages. Between ten and 20 basaltic lava flows are younger than the rhyolites. Recent faulting resulted in a moat around part of the caldera floor. Alcedo most resently erupted sometime between 1946 and 1960 from its southern flank. Alcedo maintains an active, transient hydrothermal system. Acoustic and seismic activity in 1991 is attributed to the disruption of the hydrothermal system by a regional-scale earthquake.  相似文献   

Sedimentological analysis of the tephra from the 12–15 August 1991 eruption of Hudson volcano     

Roberto A. Scasso  Hugo Corbella  Pedro Tiberi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1994,56(2):121-132

The tephra fallout from the 12–15 August 1991 explosive eruption of Hudson volcano (Cordillera de los Andes, 45°54 S-72°58 W; Chile) was dispersed on a narrow, elongated ESE sector of Patagonia, covering an area (on land) of more than 100 000 km². The elongated shape of the deposit, together with the relatively coarse mean and median values of the particles at a considerable distance from the vent, were the result of strong winds blowing to the southeast during the eruption. The thickness of the fall deposit decreases up to 250 km ESE from Hudson volcano, where it begins to thicken again. Secondary maxima are well developed at approximately 500 km from the vent. Secondary maxima, together with grainsize bimodality in individual layers and in the bulk deposit suggest that particle aggregation played an important role in tephra sedimentation. The fallout deposit is well stratified, with alternating fine-grained and coarsegrained layers, which is probably a result of strong eruptive pulses followed by relatively calm periods and/or changes in the eruptive style from plinian to phreatoplinian. The tephra is mostly composed of juvenile material: the coarse mode (mostly pumice) shifts to finer sizes with distance from the volcano; the fine mode (mostly glass shards) is always about 5/6 phi. Glass shards and pumice are mostly light gray to colorless. However, considerable amounts of dark, poorly vesiculated, blocky shards, suggest a hydromagmatic component in the eruption. A land-based tephra volume of 4.35 km³ was estimated, and a total volume of 7.6 km³ arose from an extrapolation, which took into account the probable volume sedimented in the sea. Bulk density ranges from 0.9 to 1.10 gr/cm³ (beyond 110 km from the vent). Rather uniform density values measured in crushed samples (2.45–2.50 gr/cm³ at all distances from the vent) reveal a relatively homogeneous composition. Mean and median sizes decrease rapidly up to 270 km from the vent; beyond that point they are more or less constant, whereas the maximum size (1 phi) shows a steady decrease up to 550 km. A concomitant improvement in sorting is observed. This is attributed to sorting due to wind transport combined with particle aggregation at different times and distances from the vent. The Hudson tephra fallout shares some strikingly similar features with the Mount St. Helens (18 May 1980) and Quizapu (1932) eruptions.  相似文献   

Glass geochemical compositions from widespread tephras erupted over the last 200 years from Mount St. Helens     

ZHEN HUI FOO  Britta J. L. Jensen  Matthew S. M. Bolton 《第四纪科学杂志》2020,35(1-2):102-113

Building reliable chronologies from lake sediments, peat and other paleoenvironmental archives can be challenging, especially for historical times where radiocarbon is unreliable. Nineteenth- and 20th-century eruptions from Mount St. Helens (MSH) provide important chronostratigraphic markers for regional paleoenvironmental studies within this time frame, but are constrained by poorly geochemically characterized tephra and/or limited published data. Here, we present glass geochemistry from the most significant eruptions from this time. This includes proximal, medial and distal deposits of the 18 May 1980 MSH eruption, layer T ( ad 1799/1800), a new tephra that we argue represents the ad 1842 eruption, and the 22 July 1980 eruption that had reported ashfall in Canada. Our results indicate that most tephras ejected during these eruptions, within a time frame of ~200 years, have distinct glass geochemical characteristics that can be used to identify distal deposits for tephrochronological studies. Layer T is on trend with analyses of the 1980 eruption but has a distinct dacitic glass population. The 1980 and ad 1842 eruptions are similar, both having rhyolitic glass compositions, but the ad 1842 event can be differentiated by a more constrained SiO₂ range in the main geochemical population, and the presence of a unique SiO₂ sub-population.  相似文献   

Optically stimulated luminescence dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from perennially frozen loess in western Yukon Territory, Canada: Comparison with radiocarbon chronologies for the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra     

M. Demuro  R.G. Roberts  D.G. Froese  L.J. Arnold  F. Brock  C.Bronk Ramsey 《Quaternary Geochronology》2008,3(4):346-364

Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of perennially frozen loess was tested on quartz grains extracted from deposits associated with the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra in western Yukon Territory, Canada. OSL samples were obtained from ice-rich loess bracketing the Dawson tephra, while radiocarbon (¹⁴C) samples were collected from the bulk sediments directly underlying the tephra and from a ground-squirrel burrow 2.7 m below the tephra. Here we report the OSL characteristics and ages of the extracted quartz grains, as well as additional radiocarbon ages for samples described in Froese [2002. Age and significance of the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra in eastern Beringia. Quaternary Science Reviews 21, 2137–2142; 2006. Seasonality of the late Pleistocene Dawson tephra and exceptional preservation of a buried riparian surface in central Yukon Territory, Canada. Quaternary Science Reviews 25, 1542–1551]. We refine the time of Dawson tephra deposition to between 25,420±70 and 25,290±80 ¹⁴C a BP. Bayesian analysis of constraining radiocarbon ages places the deposition of the Dawson tephra at between 30,433 and 30,032 cal a BP. Linear modulation (LM) OSL analysis of multi-grain aliquots of quartz showed that the initial part of the decay curve is dominated by a rapidly bleached (‘fast’) component; these samples, however, had relatively dim continuous wave (CW) OSL signals at the multi-grain aliquot (each composed of 80 grains) and single-grain scales of analysis. The single-aliquot regenerative-dose protocol was applied to multi-grain aliquots and single grains to obtain equivalent dose (D_e) values for samples collected from below and above the Dawson tephra. The D_e values were examined graphically and numerically, the latter using the central age, minimum age, and finite mixture models. For multi-grain aliquots, the central age model gave weighted mean D_e values between 30 and 50 Gy, which greatly underestimated the expected D_e of 74–81 Gy for both samples studied. Possible reasons for these underestimations are discussed, and a solution proposed based on single-grain analysis. Measurements of single grains produced D_e values in agreement with the expected D_e, and yielded OSL ages of 28±5 and 30±4 ka for the samples taken from above and below the Dawson tephra, respectively. Examination of individual grains with differing luminescence behaviors showed that a significant number of the measured quartz grains exhibited anomalous luminescence properties that would have compromised the results obtained from multi-grain aliquots. We therefore recommend analysis of individual grains to overcome the age-shortfall from multi-grain analysis of these and similar samples of quartz.  相似文献