1979—2016年夏季西南涡活动及其与降水的关系          下载免费PDF全文

马勋丹  智协飞  王静  陈静  冯汉中 《大气科学学报》2018,41(2):198-206

利用1979-2016年ERA-Interim一日四次高度场、风场再分析资料,根据源地的不同将西南涡细分为九龙涡、盆地涡和小金涡,对1979-2016年夏季（6-8月）不同涡源的西南涡的活动规律及其降水特征进行统计分析。结果表明,夏季西南涡平均年发生频数为11.6 a^-1,其中生成的盆地涡最多（9.3 a^-1）,九龙涡次之（1.9 a^-1）,小金涡最少（0.4 a^-1）。就移动频率而言,盆地涡移出率最高（44.2%）,其次为小金涡（30.8%）,九龙涡最低（29.73%）。38 a中夏季高影响型西南涡共有140例,只有105例能移出源地。生命史超过36 h的高影响型西南涡都会带来降水,并且超过88%的概率会造成大雨及以上的降水。高影响型九龙涡和盆地涡产生大雨及以上天气的概率分别是83%、91%,远远高于小金涡。  相似文献   

冬季黑潮延伸体海区海洋锋强度变化及其与北太平洋风暴轴的关系     

苑俐  肖子牛 《大气科学》2017,41(6):1141-1155

利用英国哈德莱中心（Hadley Center）1949~2014年表层海温资料,将黑潮延伸体海区海温经向梯度的大值区域的平均值定义为黑潮延伸体及其北部海洋锋强度指数（KEFI）,利用数据分析方法研究了各季节KEFI的变化特征及其与北太平洋风暴轴的关系。分析表明,各季节的KEFI存在明显的年际和年代际变化特征,同时在冬季与北太平洋瞬时方差有显著正相关,两者在风暴轴主体位置的相关性最为显著,并且这种相关性在KEFI超前一个月时就所显现,同时对后期风暴轴也有一定影响,即冬季黑潮延伸体海区海洋锋的强度会影响风暴轴区域瞬时方差的变化。之后主要分析了这种影响的可能机制,发现在冬季KEFI高值年,由于海洋锋两侧的热量输送差异更加明显,导致海洋锋附近的近表面气温经向梯度增强,维持了近表面的斜压性,促进涡动热量的向极输送和海洋锋南侧的向上输送,有利于瞬时涡旋的发展。另外大尺度环流场与冬季黑潮延伸体海洋锋也有关系,具体表现为,在海洋锋强年,阿留申低压加深,副热带高压略有加强,对应的对流层低层位势高度场在40°N以北有负变高,以南有正变高,同时高空极锋急流加强,副热带西风急流减弱加宽北抬,海洋锋偏弱年的变化则相反。因此,冬季黑潮延伸体及其北部的海洋锋主要通过两侧海表热量输送差异不断产生气温梯度,进而维持斜压性以促进上层风暴轴的发展。  相似文献   

热带气旋路径客观综合集成预报方法的研制   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

谢玲娟 《气象》1995,21(8):30-33

在正确评估我国现有发报的７种客观预报方法性能的基础上，分别对西北太平洋，东海，南海３个责任海区，采用典型相关，条件概率组合，新回归系数估计法等多种统计模型，建立包括数值预报产品在内的热带气旋路径的综合集成预报方法。  相似文献   

Radon emanometry in soil gases and activity in ashes from El Chichon Volcano     

S. De la Cruz-Reyna  M. Mena  N. Segovia  J. F. Chalot  J. L. Seidel  M. Monnin 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1985,123(3):407-421

Radon (²²²Em) emanation measurements in soil gases are reported in connection with the 1982 eruptions of El Chichón Volcano.²²²Em detection is performed with LR-115 cellulose nitrate track detectors. Results show a general decreasing pattern of²²²Em concentration in soil with time after the eruptions. Activity measurements of radon daughters in ashes show that a large amount of²²²Em and²²⁰Em was released from magma degassing during the eruptions, and that only a fraction of the degassed magma was erupted. An important fluid interaction between the magma chamber and the surrounding sedimentary rock is also suggested.  相似文献   

First report of turtle tracks from the Lower Cretaceous of Korea     

《Cretaceous Research》2016

A partial trackway of a turtle from the Jinju Formation (Sindong Group) is the first report of Mesozoic turtle tracks from Korea and the first report of traces of an aquatic tetrapod from Korea. Six tracks show a partial trackway configuration inferred to represent a partially buoyant trackmaker, possibly engaged in “bottom walking” behavior. Although turtle tracks often co-occur with crocodylian tracks in Cretaceous coastal plain facies in other regions, especially North America, to date there are no such co-occurrences in east Asia. This suggests that in Asia paleoenvironments suitable for turtles were quite widespread, but paleoenvironments were not suitable for crocodylians.  相似文献   

近20 a影响我国台风活动变化趋势   总被引：13，自引：10，他引：3  

李真真  吴立广  刘青元 《气象科学》2016,36(6):752-759

利用最新定义的气旋活动指数CAI(Cyclone Activity Index)分析影响我国台风活动近20 a的变化趋势及其可能原因。分析发现,影响我国的台风频数自1996年以来显著减少,主要表现为南方沿海地区热带气旋影响减小,三亚和海口更呈显著下降的趋势(通过信度为0.05的统计检验),而东南方沿海地区热带气旋影响明显增加,厦门、福州、温州、杭州和上海夏季(6—10月)受到影响的程度显著上升(福州、温州和杭州通过信度为0.05的统计,上海和厦门通过信度为0.1的统计检验)。进一步分析表明,热带气旋活动的这些变化与台风盛行路径和强度的变化有密切关系。  相似文献   

K-MEANS CLUSTERING FOR CLASSIFICATION OF THE NORTHWESTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS     

余锦华  郑颖青  吴启树  林金凎  龚振彬 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(2):127-135

Based on the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track dataset between 1965 and 2009 and the characteristic parameters including tropical cyclone (TC) position, intensity, path length and direction, a method for objective classification of the Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclone tracks is established by using K-means Clustering. The TC lifespan, energy, active season and landfall probability of seven clusters of tropical cyclone tracks are comparatively analyzed. The characteristics of these parameters are quite different among different tropical cyclone track clusters. From the trend of the past two decades, the frequency of the western recurving cluster (accounting for 21.3% of the total) increased, and the lifespan elongated slightly, which differs from the other clusters. The annual variation of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI) of most clusters mainly depended on the TC intensity and frequency. However, the annual variation of the PDI in the northwestern moving then recurving cluster and the pelagic west-northwest moving cluster mainly depended on the frequency.  相似文献   

Mesozoic thermal history of the Prebetic continental margin (southern Spain): Constraints from apatite fission-track analysis     

L. Barbero  A.C. Lpez-Garrido 《Tectonophysics》2006,422(1-4):115-128

Apatite fission-track analysis was applied to Triassic and Cretaceous sediments from the South-Iberian Continental Margin to unravel its thermal history. Apatite fission-track age populations from Triassic samples indicate partial annealing and point to a maximum temperature of around 100–110 °C during their post-depositional evolution. In certain apatites from Cretaceous samples, two different fission-track age populations of 93–99 and around 180 Ma can be distinguished. Track lengths associated with these two populations enabled thermal modelling based on experimental annealing and mathematical algorithms. These thermal models indicate that the post-depositional thermal evolution attained temperatures ≤ 70 °C, which is consistent with available vitrinite-reflectance data. Thermal modelling for the Cretaceous samples makes it possible to decipher a succession of cooling and heating periods, consisting of (a) a late Carboniferous–Permian cooling followed by (b) a progressive heating episode that ended approximately 120 Ma at a maximum T of around 110 °C. The first cooling episode resulted from a combination of factors such as: the relaxation of the thermal anomaly related to the termination of the Hercynian cycle; the progressive exhumation of the Hercynian basement and the thermal subsidence related to the rifting of the Bay of Biscay, reactivated during the Late Permian. Jurassic thermal evolution deduced from the inherited thermal signal in the Cretaceous sediments is characterized by progressive heating that ended around 120 Ma. This heating episode is related to thermal subsidence during Jurassic rifting, in agreement with the presence of abundant mantle-derived tholeiitic magmas interbedded in the Jurassic rocks. The end of the Jurassic rifting is well marked by a cooling episode apparently starting during Neocomiam times and ending at surface conditions by Albian times.  相似文献   

磷灰石裂变径迹技术与地学应用综述   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

常远  刘锐  杨嘉 《上海国土资源》2004,(1):47-53

天然裂变径迹的形成和演化是一个连续不可逆的过程，经历了漫长地质演化的矿物的所有裂变径迹综合起来就可以看作一个热时钟体系。它不仅反映了矿物冷却到封闭温度(退火温度)的时间，还记录了矿物所经历的低于封闭温度的整个热历史的信息。由此可以建立起用于恢复矿物热史信息的各种模型(包括时间——温度模型)。这些模型的建立对沉积盆地沉降／埋藏历史、造山带浅部壳层冷却／剥露历史的研究以及低温热历史重建等地学方面的应用意义重大。  相似文献   

影响中国大陆热带气旋路径分类及其特征研究   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

叶家成  杜新观  余锦华 《气象科学》2019,39(3):304-311

热带气旋(TC)是影响中国的重要天气系统,对TC路径分类有助于认识热带气旋的活动特征。本文采用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心提供的1949至2016年6—11月最佳TC路径资料,选取TC质心、生命史、转向、强度等特征参数,利用K-means聚类方法将影响中国大陆的热带气旋分为4类。对4类路径进行比对分析后发现各类TC的走向、生命史、活动季节、登陆概率及区域等特征差异显著,TC单体强度和生命史在强厄尔尼诺发展年也有不同程度的增强。在年代际变化上,1998年以来,尽管各类TC频数变化趋势不同,但各类TC单体能量耗散指数均有不同程度的增长趋势,这可能与近年来强厄尔尼诺发展有关。  相似文献