基于证据理论的风暴潮灾害损失评估     

孙丰霖 《热带海洋学报》2022,41(1):75-81

本文提出了一种基于Dempster-Shafer证据理论的风暴潮灾害损失评估方法。鉴于风暴潮致灾过程中的不确定性, 选择合适的具有代表性指标(包括最大风暴潮增水、最大有效波高和防灾减灾能力)产生灾害损失评估的证据, 并根据所选指标和风暴潮直接经济损失之间的相关性大小确定证据权重, 最后采用改进的Murphy证据融合算法进行证据融合, 从而判断灾害损失等级。通过实证分析发现, 本文所提出的方法在判断风暴潮灾害损失等级上的正确率达到93.1%, 优于朴素贝叶斯、支持向量机、神经网络和决策树等常用方法, 同时本文方法计算简便, 且随着训练集样本量的增加, 损失评估结果可进一步精细化。  相似文献   

Predictive GIS model for potential mapping of Cu,Pb, Zn mineralization     

Tarik Benomar  Bian Fuling 《地球空间信息科学学报》2013,16(2):151-156

The geologic features indicative of Cu, Pb, Zn mineral deposits in a area are fractures (structure), and host rock sediments. Datasets used include Cu, Pb, Zn deposit points record, geological data, remote sensing imagery (Landsat TM5). The mineral potential of the study area is assessed by means of GIS based geodata integration techniques for generating predictive maps. GIS predictive model for Cu, Pb, Zn potential was carried out in this study area (Weixi) using weight of evidence.  相似文献   

典型国家专属经济区及大陆架规划文本比较及对中国启示     

陈汉雪  付秀梅  汤慧颖  贾涛  徐伟 《海洋通报》2018,(3):254-263

本文对澳大利亚、加拿大、英国的专属经济区及大陆架规划进展和规划文本进行对比研究,结果显示这三个国家的专属经济区及大陆架规划文本具有覆盖范围全、定期修订、注重生态系统保护和重视利益相关者的共同特点;同时在规划目标、实施力度、财政支持力度以及跟踪保障措施等方面存在差异。这表明专属经济区及大陆架规划制定应该遵循四个基本理论:国土资源安全理论、动态规划理论、可持续发展理论和利益相关者理论;同时应当做好三方面保障工作:法律保障、管理体制保障和文化保障。在此基础上针对我国专属经济区及大陆架规划目前存在的法律体系、管理体制、管理意识困境,提出相关规划编制建议。  相似文献   

基于D—S证据理论的多参数反演的火成岩识别——以塔里木盆地哈拉哈塘地区为例     

张昆  刘永福  许永忠  孙琦  汤浩哲 《东北石油大学学报》2013,(1):51-56,8

塔里木盆地哈拉哈塘地区具有良好油源地质条件,该地区二叠系火成岩普遍发育,复杂的岩性和剧烈的厚度变化影响下覆油气资源的勘探.为识别该地区英安岩和玄武岩这2种主要分布的火成岩,分析不同岩性的特征响应,选取有效岩性识别参数,进行多参数反演;利用基于D-S证据理论的信息融合技术对多参数反演结果进行融合,挖掘参数反演数据体的优势信息,得到岩性识别的概率体,有效避免传统波阻抗反演结果的局限性.该方法可预测主要火成岩类型在空间上的展布和厚度变化,提高岩性解释精度,在识别火成岩岩性方面取得较好效果.  相似文献   

基于证据权重法的辽东南芬-万宝地区多金属成矿远景区预测     

翟富荣  杨占兴  张国仁  梁帅 《地质与资源》2011,20(5):380-386

南芬-万宝地区是辽东钼、铜、铅锌等多金属矿聚集地.在充分研究区内成矿规律的前提下,以MAPGIS软件为数据处理平台,提取区域地质、地球物理、地球化学等13个空间控矿因素作为证据因子;以划分网格单元的方式对成矿多元信息进行叠加整合,建立证据权重模型;以后验概率求拐点的方法圈定Ⅰ级远景区13处,Ⅱ级远景区10处,Ⅲ级远景区7处.预测结果表明,83%的矿床（点）位于成矿预测远景区内.除此之外,区内仍有3处Ⅰ级预测远景区内未见矿床（点）,应作为今后找矿勘查的重点.  相似文献   

Prediction of hydrothermal copper, gold, silver and lead-zinc in northwestern Yunnan using weight of evidence model   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Jacob Kporfor Chen Jiagou 《地球空间信息科学学报》2005,8(3):230-234

This paper discusses the application of the model in predicting for hydrothermal Cu, Ag, Au and Pb-Zn occurrences in northwestern Yunnan. Geochemical, lineament and lithology data were the selected recognition criteria. The mentioned criteria varied against 75 known hydrothermal occurrences; the geochemical data had a weight of （W^＋= 1. 209 7, W^- =-0. 748 1） being the maximum among the three and the rest lineament and lithology have （W^＋= 0.7424, W^-= -0.449 6）, （W^＋= 0.378 7,W^-=-0.6243） respectively. The application was successful since the predicted results covers about 70% of the known deposits and predicted unknown areas.  相似文献   

Recognition of an enhanced multi-element geochemical signature of porphyry copper deposits for vectoring into mineralized zones and delimiting exploration targets in Jiroft area,SE Iran     

《Ore Geology Reviews》2017

Delimiting exploration targets using geochemical exploration data can be a challenging issue when different geochemical signatures represent the same deposit-type sought. In this regard, fuzzy operators have been used to integrate different geochemical evidence layers into a single model for generating target areas. In this paper, a GIS-based expected value function was adapted to integrate different geochemical evidence layers into a stronger geochemical signature for delimiting exploration targets. Then, the expected value function and fuzzy operators were compared. The comparison demonstrated that the former is more efficient than the later for generating a stronger geochemical evidence layer. The higher efficiency of the expected value function is because it simultaneously uses the value of all input variables and their relative importance in the process of integration. The proposed approach was evaluated by using a lithogeochemical data set for prospecting porphyry-Cu deposits in Jiroft area, Kerman province, southeast of Iran, as a case study.  相似文献   

基于证据权法的公路路基岩溶塌陷危险性评价          下载免费PDF全文

孙琳  任娜娜  李云安  胡乐健 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2019,30(3):94-100

将证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶发育强度分区中,在工程作用下岩溶强发育区易发生岩溶塌陷。介绍了证据权模型的方法。在丹霞枢纽互通区域,应用Arc GIS将研究区划分为5m×5m的栅格,考虑地层岩性、地下水距地面距离、顶板厚度、距断层距离4个证据因子,然后进行证据因子优选,通过叠加分析,得出岩溶发育强度的后验概率,并进行条件独立性检验,利用CAPP曲线确定阈值将后验概率分区。应用ROC曲线进行预测的精度评价,预测正确概率为66.2%。最后结果表明,证据权模型应用在公路路基岩溶方面可行。  相似文献   

Lithodiversity and Its Spatial Association with Metallic Mineral Sites,Great Basin of Nevada     

Mihalasky  Mark J.  Bonham-Carter  Graeme F. 《Natural Resources Research》2001,10(3):209-226

Geographical information system (GIS) techniques were used to investigate the spatial association between metallic mineral sites and lithodiversity in Nevada. Mineral site data sets include various size and type subsets of about 5,500 metal-bearing occurrences and deposits. Lithodiversity was calculated by counting the number of unique geological map units within four sizes of square-shaped sample neighborhoods (2.5-by-2.5, 5-by-5, 10-by-10, and 20-by-20 km) on three different scales of geological maps (national, 1:2,500,000; state, 1:500,000; county, 1:250,000). The spatial association between mineral sites and lithodiversity was observed to increase with increasing lithodiversity. This relationship is consistent for (1) both basin-range and range-only regions, (2) four sizes of sample neighborhoods, (3) various mineral site subsets, (4) the three scales of geological maps, and (5) areas not covered by large-scale maps. A map scale of 1:500,000 and lithodiversity sampling neighborhood of 5-by-5 km was determined to best describe the association. Positive associations occurred for areas having >3 geological map units per neighborhood, with the strongest observed at approximately >7 units. Areas in Nevada with more than three geological map units per 5-by-5 km neighborhood contain more mineral sites than would be expected resulting from chance. High lithodiversity likely reflects the occurrence of complex structural, stratigraphic, and intrusive relationships that are thought to control, focus, localize, or expose mineralization. The application of lithodiversity measurements to areas that are not well explored may help delineate regional-scale exploration targets and provide GIS-supported mineral resource assessment and exploration activity another method that makes use of widely available geological map data.  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯东北缘早白垩世冰川泥石流沉积的发现及其成因证据   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

程守田  李志德  黄焱球  葛利刚  刘星 《地质科技情报》2002,21(2):36-40

冰川泥石流是由冰碛物与冰雪融水混合形成的一种碎屑重力的沉积。综合泥石的砾石成分、冰川擦痕、冰冻痕、巨型漂砾等及其某些沉积特征和源区地质背景，认为鄂尔多斯东北缘早白垩世泥石流沉积为冰川泥石流成因，这一发现暗示了晋北隆起在早白垩世曾有山谷冰川存在，并对我国白垩纪陆地古冰川及其古气候研究具有重要意义。  相似文献