Managing expert-information uncertainties for assessing collapse susceptibility of abandoned underground structures     

Aude Nachbaur  Jérémy Rohmer 《Engineering Geology》2011,(3):166

Assessing the collapse susceptibility of abandoned cavities at a regional scale is associated with large uncertainties that are mainly related to the very nature of the phenomena, but also to the difficulty in collecting exhaustive information at such a scale on often “forgotten” structures. In this context, the expert's role is essential, because he is able to synthesize the information resulting from the inventory and from the commonly imprecise, if not vague, criteria on the basis of his experience and his knowledge of the geological, historical, economic regional context.In this article, we propose mathematical tools for representing and processing this information in order to give flexibility to this step and manage the uncertainty inherent in the expert's information. The first tool, based on the weight of evidence theory, is for managing the uncertainty due to the heterogeneous spatial distribution of the data, whereas the second tool, based on the fuzzy set theory, is for managing the imprecision and incompleteness of available data, which hinder the definition of the class boundaries of the quantitative decision criteria. Based on an appropriate representation of the uncertainty sources (related to the input data and to the expert diagnostic), we then propose a methodology that integrates the uncertainty in the final output of the collapse susceptibility assessment and provides a confidence indicator useful within the decision-making process. The proposed methodology is applied to the Arras territory in the North of France, where abandoned chalk pits (dating back to the Roman ages) and war saps located in the vicinity of the First World War front lines (i.e. covered trenches), raise both difficulties for urban planning.  相似文献   

基于MORPAS的证据权重法在百顺地区铀成矿预测中的应用     

陈金声  吴现兴 《铀矿地质》2011,(5):302-308,320

以比例尺均为1∶50000的地质矿产图,土壤地球化学图,航放U含量、U/K等值线图建立空间数据库;经空间统计分析,应用MORPAS系统的证据权重法筛选证据层,以印支期岩体、200 m半径构造线缓冲区、岩浆岩组合熵等21个证据层作为预测变量;以广东省百顺地区为研究区,根据证据权重法所求得的后验概率圈出多个找矿远景区。  相似文献   

基于GIS的证据权重法在桂西南地区优质锰矿成矿预测中的应用     

张宝一  毛先成  周尚国  胡超  闫芳 《地质找矿论丛》2011,26(4):359-366

文章针对传统缓冲区方法在证据因子构造方面的局限性、证据因子设置的主观性及证据因子二值化时的信息损失等问题,引入场模型表达线状地质体对成矿的影响作用,提出利用线性回归分析结果来筛选证据因子.在桂西南优质锰矿形成条件分析的基础上,利用GIS空间分析方法构造了优质锰矿的地层与岩性、同沉积断裂、沉积盆地、沉积相、岩性组合、地层...  相似文献   

南岭寨背和陂头花岗岩基属印支期侵位的岩浆动力学证据及构造意义          下载免费PDF全文

章邦桐  吴俊奇  凌洪飞  陈培荣 《地质找矿论丛》2011,26(2):119-130,161

文章通过对南岭东段寨背和陂头岩基地质-岩石地球化学特征研究,判明它们的侵位深度(7.5 km)、围岩温度(250℃)及岩浆初始温度(950℃),建立起寨背-陂头岩基的数学计算模型,并计算得出:寨背和陂头花岗岩熔体侵位后,其初始温度降低至结晶温度所需的时间(Δtcol)分别为4.04 Ma(寨背岩基)和3.97 Ma(陂...  相似文献   

ArcGIS在东昆仑西段铁矿资源预测中的应用——以矽卡岩型铁矿为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘艳宾 《地质与勘探》2011,47(6):943-956

GIS在矿产预测中的应用研究日益普及和深化,在矿产勘查领域中已成为一种快速有效成矿预测方法。本文以东昆仑西段矽卡岩型铁矿为例,从研究区的地质背景和已查明的13个矽卡岩型铁矿（点）出发,基于ArcGIS平台,建立本研究区的空间数据库,结合已知矿（点）地质资料和野外验证分析,建立找矿模型与预测区提取模型,由于矽卡岩型矿床主...  相似文献   

MAPGIS环境下实现证据权法确定最佳缓冲区     

李鲲  陈建国 《物探化探计算技术》2011,33(4):462-466,350

断裂和某些特殊的岩体等地质要素通常与成矿作用密切相关,寻找其空间位置与成矿的关系是一项值得研究的内容,但目前尚缺乏定量分析的有力工具。这里利用证据法和MAP-GIS的空间分析功能,实现了线缓冲区与矿点分布的空间关系的定量分析,介绍了应用原理和实现的技术流程,讨论了实现的关键技术,并以云南维西为例展示了应用效果。  相似文献   

对海上犯罪现场勘查工作的几点思考     

孙溯 《广东海洋大学学报》2011,31(2):13-16

随着2007年《公安机关海上执法工作规定》的实施,公安海警部队已承担起海上刑事案件的侦查工作。现场勘查是侦破刑事案件的基础。为促进公安海警部队海上犯罪现场勘查工作的科学化、现代化,更好地为侦查破案服务,根据海上犯罪现场勘查的实践,分析了海上犯罪现场勘查指挥处置、现场保护、实地勘验和证据管理各个环节存在的问题,提出了解决方法和途径。  相似文献   

内蒙古乌斯尼黑蛇绿混杂岩带形成时代的地质新证据   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

鲍庆中  张长捷  吴之理 《地质与资源》2011,20(1):16-20

贺根山-乌斯尼黑蛇绿混杂岩带的属性和形成时代存在明显的认识上的分歧.早期认为是二叠纪侵入的超镁铁质岩体.该超镁铁质岩体侵入了下二叠统格根敖包组,并被哲斯组地层不整合覆盖,形成时代为二叠纪.20世纪80年代以来,通过中国北方板块构造研究,在硅质岩中采集到的一系列化石资料表明,贺根山地区蛇绿混杂岩的形成时代应为中-晚泥盆世...  相似文献   

Occurrence and exploration of gas hydrate in the marginal seas and continental margin of the Asia and Oceania region   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Ryo Matsumoto  Byong-Jae Ryu  Sung-Rock Lee  Saulwood Lin  Shiguo Wu  Kalachand Sain  Ingo Pecher  Michael Riedel 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(10):1751-1767

Supplies of conventional natural gas and oil are declining fast worldwide, and therefore new, unconventional forms of energy resources are needed to meet the ever-increasing demand. Amongst the many different unconventional natural resources are gas hydrates, a solid, ice-like crystalline compound of methane and water formed under specific low temperature and high pressure conditions. Gas hydrates are believed to exist in large quantities worldwide in oceanic regions of continental margins, as well as associated with permafrost regions in the Arctic. Some studies to estimate the global abundance of gas hydrate suggest that the total volume of natural gas locked up in form of gas hydrates may exceed all known conventional natural gas reserves, although large uncertainties exist in these assessments. Gas hydrates have been intensively studied in the last two decades also due to connections between climate forcing (natural and/or anthropogenic) and the potential large volumes of methane trapped in gas hydrate accumulations. The presence of gas hydrate within unconsolidated sediments of the upper few hundred meters below seafloor may also pose a geo-hazard to conventional oil and gas production. Additionally, climate variability and associated changes in pressure-temperature regimes and thus shifts in the gas hydrate stability zone may cause the occurrence of submarine slope failures.Several large-scale national gas hydrate programs exist especially in countries such as Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China, India, and New Zealand, where large demands of energy cannot be met by domestic supplies from natural resources. The past five years have seen several dedicated deep drilling expeditions and other scientific studies conducted throughout Asia and Oceania to understand gas hydrates off India, China, and Korea. This thematic set of publications is dedicated to summarize the most recent findings and results of geo-scientific studies of gas hydrates in the marginal seas and continental margin of the Asia, and Oceania region.  相似文献   

Arc Gis在西天山阿吾拉勒东段铁矿资源预测的应用     

潘展超 《地质与勘探》2013,49(3):558-569

本文以西天山阿吾拉勒东段海相火山岩型铁矿为例,从研究区的地质背景和已查明的6个海相火山岩型铁矿(点)出发,基于ArcGIS平台,建立空间数据库,结合已知矿(点)地质资料和野外验证分析,建立找矿模型与预测区提取模型,总结本区铁矿的主要控矿因素:①沉积地层;②侵入体;③布格重力异常;次要影响因素:①断层距离;②断层密度,将5个方面的证据图层与铁矿(化)点空间关系合成,采用证据权模型和加权Logistic回归模型进行成矿有利度评价,将研究区划分为6个靶区,结合研究区中主要矿(化)点对各靶区的地质成矿条件进行了探讨,分析了该地区的找矿潜力。  相似文献