Pseudo-fractal interpolation for risk analysis     

Robert F. Shurtz 《Mathematical Geology》1992,24(1):99-128

This paper describes a new method of analyzing the risk incurred when the outcome of a decision depends on interpolated values, for example, on the flow through an aquifer sparsely sampled for permeability or on the ratio of waste to ore in a mineral deposit sparsely sampled for grade. The method uses large families of interpolations constructed between sample values using adaptations of the well-known midpoint displacement method for generating pseudo-fractional Brownian motion trajectories. The parameters defining each family are chosen interactively by specialists to incorporate their expert knowledge. Each family, or ensemble, then defines a population of values for any global characteristic (functional) such as flow rate or waste ratio. The probabilities of various outcomes are estimated by counting them and calculating their ratios. For example, if 900 out of 1000 are acceptable the chance of success is estimated to be 90%.  相似文献   

地震分析预报实用化软件联调系统简介     

刘栋勋  朱航 《四川地震》1992,(4):60-62

本文主要介绍各学科实用化攻关与综合预报以及专家系统等软件组成的统一软件系统,使该软件系统与在 IBM 机和 VAX 机上建立的数据库联接起来,并介绍了该系统的主要功能。  相似文献   

A prototype earthquake warning system for strike-slip earthquakes     

M. Nafi Toksöz  Anton M. Dainty  John T. Bullitt 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1990,133(3):475-487

A prototype expert system has been developed to provide rapid warning of earthquakes while they are occurring. Warning times of up to 100 seconds will be possible. In the complete system, several accelerometers are distributed at intervals within a few kilometers of a known fault; data are telemetered to a central computer which implements the expert system. The expert system incorporates specific information about the type of fault to be monitored, and includes simple rules for estimating the fault slip, rupture length, and seismic moment, all in real time. If the seismic moment exceeds a preset value, an alarm may be issued. The prototype is designed for deployment on near-surface strike-slip faults such as the San Andreas and has been successfully tested with data from the 1979 Imperial Valley and 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. Crucial concepts have also been tested using synthetic data calculated for a model of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Parkfield, California, could be used as a test site.  相似文献   

区域地壳稳定性评价“安全岛”理论及方法   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

胡海涛  殷跃平 《地学前缘》1996,3(1):57-68

阐述了区域地壳稳定性和“安全岛”的概念和定义,以及在重大工程选址中研究它的重要作用。该课题从６０年代至今经历了三个不同的研究发展阶段,已形成具有我国特色的学科领域。文章探讨了区域地壳稳定“安全岛”理论和评价方法,归纳为三种评价方法：主要指标分级评价法;分区评价法;区域稳定（ＣＲＵＳＴＡＢ）专家系统及风险度评价法。最后提出相对稳定地块──安全岛”的识别标志以及从地表构造、深部构造和地震活动图象三方面与“地震空区”的主要区别。  相似文献   

Prediction of categorical spatial data via Bayesian updating     

Xiang Huang  Zhizhong Wang  Jianhua Guo 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(7):1426-1449

This study introduces a transition probability-based Bayesian updating (BU) approach for spatial classification through expert system. Transition probabilities are interpreted as expert opinions for updating the prior marginal probabilities of categorical response variables. The main objective of this paper is to provide a spatial categorical variable prediction method which has a solid theoretical foundation and yields relatively higher classification accuracy compared with conventional ones. The basic idea is to first build a linear Bayesian updating (LBU) model that corresponds to an application of Bayes’ theorem. Since the linear opinion pool is intrinsically suboptimal and underconfident, the beta-transformed Bayesian updating (BBU) model is proposed to overcome this limitation. Another type of BU approach, conditional independent Bayesian updating (CIBU), is derived based on conditional independent experts. It is shown that traditional Markovian-type categorical prediction (MCP) is equivalent to a particular CIBU model with specific parameters. As three variants of the BU method, these techniques are illustrated in synthetic and real-world case studies, comparison results with both the LBU and MCP favor the BBU model.  相似文献   

Bridging the knowledge divide between public and experts using PGIS for land use planning in Malaysia     

《Applied geography (Sevenoaks, England)》2017

Ineffective public participation in land-use planning contributes to the lack of communication and understanding between the public and experts, acting as a barrier to successful planning outcomes. In this study, we assess whether Participatory GIS (PGIS) is a suitable method to bridge the communication gap between the public and expert knowledge for planning in the developing country context of Malaysia. Through a mixed methods approach, we investigate whether expert knowledge converges or diverges with the public's perceived knowledge obtained through a PGIS process and assess the potential benefits of PGIS from public and expert planning perspectives. The results indicate more convergence than divergence in knowledge and perspective, indicating that a PGIS process can communicate local knowledge to planning authorities to inform land use and development planning in Malaysia. Both the public and planning experts recognize the potential benefits of PGIS, but successful implementation will require major changes in traditional Malaysian public participation processes.  相似文献   

The Ocean Community     

Hsai-Yang Fang 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2003,21(3):155-166

Development of ocean community systems relating to the Taiwan Strait Tunnel (TST) project, with regionalization and multistage approach is proposed. The purposes of these systems are to assist the development of coastal marine lands and harbor facilities and to develop connecting isolated islands into an organized community by means of embankment roadways, tunnels, bridges, ferryboats, and so on. The major aim of such an approach is to develop the isolated abandoned islands into useful land improvement, expand the forest, agriculture, and fishing industries and other resources to generate additional revenue to subsidize some of the cost for building the TST. This article points out the systems' importance, outlines the general procedures, and discusses a possible transportation network connecting islands with land; and the outlines development of the knowledge-based expert system computer program to be applied to the ocean community systems relating to the TST project.  相似文献   

Seismic hazard maps for Jordan and vicinity     

M. Semih Yücemen 《Natural Hazards》1992,6(3):201-226

Probabilistic methods are used to quantify the seismic hazard in Jordan and neighbouring regions. The hazard model incorporates the uncertainties associated with the seismicity parameters and the attenuation equation. Seven seismic sources are identified in the region and the seismicity parameters of these sources are estimated by making use of all the available information. Seismic hazard computations and the selection of peak ground acceleration and modified Mercalli intensity values at the nodes of a 25 × 25 km mesh covering the region under study are carried out by two different computer programs.The results of the study are presented through a set of seismic hazard maps displaying iso-acceleration and iso-intensity contours corresponding to specified return periods. The first set of maps is derived based on the seismicity data assessed in this study and display our best estimate of the seismic hazard for Jordan and the neighbouring areas. The second set of maps which shows the alternative estimate of seismic hazard is based solely on the seismicity parameters reported by other researchers. The third set of maps, called the Bayesian estimate of seismic hazard, reflects the influence of expert opinion involving more conservative assumptions regarding the Red Sea and Araba faults.  相似文献   

基础地理信息数据库的快速出图技术     

殷勇  印洁  丁圣陶  叶关根 《测绘科学》2012,37(5):197-199,218

针对当前地图制图自动化程度较低以及工作强度大的特点,通过分析国家基础地理信息数据编码特征以及制图工艺流程,依托基础地理信息数据库,本文提出基于地图专家知识模板的快速制图解决方案,解决注记自动配置以及符号复用等快速制图关键技术,最终服务于应急出图以及大批量的工程化出图,并在1∶250 000公众版地图出图中得到了推广应用。  相似文献   

关于避免中国交通建设过度超前的建议   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

陆大道 《地理科学》2012,(1):2-11

这里发表的是经过2009-2010年间大量调查研究和分析写成的咨询报告全文（原文）。“报告”于2010年9月由有关部门上报到国家。“报告”对近年来交通建设成就和交通运输业发展已经达到的水平进行了概括性评价,集中而系统地揭示了近年来全国范围内交通运输建设中出现的过度扩张、重复建设、能力浪费、不合理竞争以及各种运输方式之间...  相似文献