Improved Weather Radar Echo Extrapolation Through Wind Speed Data Fusion Using a New Spatiotemporal Neural Network Model     

耿焕同  谢博洋  葛晓燕  闵锦忠  庄潇然 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2023,29(4):482-492

Weather radar echo extrapolation plays a crucial role in weather forecasting. However, traditional weather radar echo extrapolation methods are not very accurate and do not make full use of historical data. Deep learning algorithms based on Recurrent Neural Networks also have the problem of accumulating errors. Moreover, it is difficult to obtain higher accuracy by relying on a single historical radar echo observation. Therefore, in this study, we constructed the Fusion GRU module, which leverages a cascade structure to effectively combine radar echo data and mean wind data. We also designed the Top Connection so that the model can capture the global spatial relationship to construct constraints on the predictions. Based on the Jiangsu Province dataset, we compared some models. The results show that our proposed model, Cascade Fusion Spatiotemporal Network (CFSN), improved the critical success index (CSI) by 10.7% over the baseline at the threshold of 30 dBZ. Ablation experiments further validated the effectiveness of our model. Similarly, the CSI of the complete CFSN was 0.004 higher than the suboptimal solution without the cross-attention module at the threshold of 30 dBZ.  相似文献   

Do 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f] quinoxaline data support the conclusion of threshold carcinogenic effects?     

Chao Chen  Kate Z. Guyton 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2008,22(4):487-494

The objectives of this paper are to (1) reexamine the data that were used to support the conclusion of a threshold effect for 2-amino-3,8-dimethylimidazo[4,5-f] quinoxaline (MeIQx)-induced initiation and carcinogenicity at low doses in the rat liver, and (2) discuss issues and uncertainties about assessing cancer risk at low doses. Our analysis is part of an effort to understand proper interpretation and modeling of data related to cancer mechanisms and is not an effort to develop a risk assessment for this compound. The data reanalysis presented herein shows that the low-dose initiation activity of MeIQx, which can be found in cooked meat, cannot be dismissed. It is argued that the threshold effect for carcinogenic agents cannot be determined by statistical non-significance alone; more relevant biological information is required. A biologically motivated procedure is proposed for data analyses. The concept and procedure that are appropriate for analyzing MeIQx data are equally applicable to other compounds with comparable data. The ideas and approaches in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the positions or policies of the USEPA.  相似文献   

求解二阶解耦弹性波方程的低秩分解法和低秩有限差分法          下载免费PDF全文

袁雨欣  胡婷  王之洋  郭鹏  刘洪 《地球物理学报》2018,61(8):3324-3333

时间域的波场延拓方法在本质上都可以归结为对一个空间-波数域算子的近似.本文基于一阶波数-空间混合域象征,提出一种新的方法求解解耦的二阶位移弹性波方程.该方法采用交错网格,连续使用两次一阶前向和后向拟微分算子,推导得到了解耦的二阶位移弹性波方程的波场延拓算子.由于该混合域象征在伪谱算子的基础上增加了一个依赖于速度模型的补偿项,可以补偿由于采用二阶中心差分计算时间微分项带来的误差,有效地减少模拟结果的数值频散,提高模拟精度.然而,在非均匀介质中,直接计算该二阶的波场延拓算子,每一个时间步上需要做N次快速傅里叶逆变换,其中N是总的网格点数.为了减少计算量,提出了交错网格低秩分解方法;针对常规有限差分数值频散问题,本文将交错网格低秩方法与有限差分法结合,提出了交错网格低秩有限差分法.数值结果表明,交错网格低秩方法和交错网格低秩有限差分法具有较高的精度,对于复杂介质的地震波数值模拟和偏移成像具有重要的价值.  相似文献   

利用雷达和自动站资料综合分析风暴移动和发展规律   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

徐亚钦  翟国庆  黄旋旋 《大气科学》2011,35(1):134-146

为了研究地面中尺度辐合对对流回波发展趋势的影响,本文利用多普勒雷达和经过质量控制的地面加密自动站资料,选取浙江宁波地区较典型的10次强对流天气过程,逐时统计地面辐合场、累计雨量、雷达回波之间的相互对应情况,并进一步通过Shuman-Shapiro滤波来揭示地面中尺度风场辐合与风暴发展的内在联系,最后基于所统计的回波发展...  相似文献   

气温和降水的均生外延主分量预测模型     

刘爽  李祚泳  李国平 《成都信息工程学院学报》1993,(3)

本文采用了对窗区滑动的气温和降水的时间序列,构造均生函数外延矩阵。对外延矩阵进行主分量分析,建立了以主分量作自变量的气温或降水的长期预测模型。实例分析表明,该模型应用于气温长期预测精度较高,用于降水趋势预测亦是可行的。  相似文献   

一种基于多项式外推的局部透射边界位移解(外行波为非平面波情形)   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

张晓志  谢礼立  屈成忠 《地震工程与工程振动》2004,24(1):1-6

一般情况下,通过人工边界向外透射的波动常为非平面波。对于近场非平面波在人工边界上的透射问题,不能采用简单的平面波透射方法。本文针对近场非平面波在人工边界上的透射特点,分析了非平面波沿人工边界法向视波速的变化规律及其近场失稳机制,推导了适合近场非平面波的、人工边界点位移解的不等步距线性外推公式。  相似文献   

CloudSat云底高度外推估计的可行性分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

王帅辉  姚志刚  韩志刚  赵增亮 《气象》2012,38(2):210-219

云底高度对于全球辐射平衡以及航空飞行均具有重要影响。针对CloudSat与MODIS主、被动观测的优缺点,本文提出了利用MODIS云分类信息进行CloudSat云底高度外推估计的技术。首先使用MODIS和CloudSat数据,利用回归分析方法比较了基于云类型（CSAT）与基于距离（MSAT）的云底高度估计方法的优劣。此外,分析了中国及周边地区CloudSat各类云云底高度的均一性特征。最后,利用CloudSat各类云云底高度的统计特征,建立了一种基于云类型和距离权重的云底高度估计方法,并对该方法进行了验证和分析。结果表明,利用该方法得到的MODIS各类云云底高度估计误差的标准差均小于1.5 km,除了积雨云在观测点与待测点距离大于400 km的估计误差均值稍大于1.5 km外,各种情况下其他各类云的云底高度估计误差的均值均小于1.5 km。  相似文献   

Further improvement of temporal resolution of seismic data by autoregressive (AR) spectral extrapolation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hakan Karsl&#x; 《Journal of Applied Geophysics》2006,59(4):324-336

Seismic data have still no enough temporal resolution because of band-limited nature of available data even if it is deconvolved. However, lower and higher frequency information belonging to seismic data is missing and it is not directly recovered from seismic data. In this paper, a method originally applied by Honarvar et al. [Honarvar, F., Sheikhzadeh, H., Moles, M., Sinclair, A.N., 2004. Improving the time-resolution and signal–noise ratio of ultrasonic NDE signals. Ultrasonics 41, 755–763.] which is the combination of the most widely used Wiener deconvolution and AR spectral extrapolation in frequency domain is briefly reviewed and is applied to seismic data to improve temporal resolution further. The missing frequency information is optimally recovered by forward and backward extrapolation based on the selection of a high signal–noise ratio (SNR) of signal spectrum deconvolved in signal processing technique. The combination of the two methods is firstly tested on a variety of synthetic examples and then applied to a stacked real trace. The selection of necessary parameters in Wiener filtering and in extrapolation are discussed in detail. It is used an optimum frequency windows between 3 and 10 dB drops by comparing results from these drops, while frequency windows are used as standard between 2.8 and 3.2 dB drops in study of Honarvar et al. [Honarvar, F., Sheikhzadeh, H., Moles, M., Sinclair, A.N., 2004. Improving the time-resolution and signal–noise ratio of ultrasonic NDE signals. Ultrasonics 41, 755–763.]. The results obtained show that the application of the purposed signal processing technique considerably improves temporal resolution of seismic data when compared with the original seismic data. Furthermore, AR based spectral extrapolated data can be almost considered as reflectivity sequence of layered medium. Consequently, the combination of Wiener deconvolution and AR spectral extrapolation can reveal some details of seismic data that cannot be observed in raw signal or which lost during the previous processing.  相似文献   

用函数模型外推法预测抗拔桩极限承载力          下载免费PDF全文

王之军  刘建平  袁加贝 《探矿工程》2005,32(9):12-14

在桩的抗拔课题中，极限抗拔承载力的确定是其重要内容。当抗拔试桩未加载至其破坏荷载时，根据已有的荷载位移数据，用函数模型外推法预测极限抗拔承载力具有理论意义和实践意义。以工程实例为基础，用Grapher4的曲线拟合功能，选用双曲线模型、指数模型和幂函数模型，成功预测出了极限抗拔承载力。通过结果比较，表明指数函数模型具有较好的预测精度。  相似文献   

地层油藏超剥尖灭线夹角定量外推方法模型研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

苏朝光  闫昭岷  张营革  高秋菊  朱定蓉 《地球物理学进展》2007,22(6):1841-1846

地层油藏是一种复杂的油藏类型,在地震描述中根据地震反射特征追踪的尖灭线与实际地层油藏的尖灭线常常存在较大的误差,因此精确落实地层超剥线的位置是地层油藏勘探成功的关键,本文通过大量的正演模型和地质统计方法,发现地层油藏超剥尖灭线的误差与地层和不整合面的夹角有关,从而提出了地层油藏超剥尖灭线夹角定量外推这种新方法,通过实际资料的应用,较好地解决了地层油藏超剥尖灭线不准的问题,取得了良好地质效果.  相似文献