On the Mechanism of the Locking of the El Nio Event Onset Phase to Boreal Spring     

严邦良 《大气科学进展》2005,(5)

1. Introduction The observed facts show that the ENSO cycle has obvious phase-locking and oscillates irregularly (An and Wang, 2001; Kaplan et al., 1998). Based on Zibiak and Cane's (1987) model (hereafter, the Z-C model) and simple, coupled ocean-atmosph…  相似文献   

Numerical Simulation of Wind and Temperature Fields over Beijing Area in Summer   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

HU Xiaoming  LIU Shuhu  WANG Yingchun  LI Ju 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2005,19(1):120-127

1. IntroductionThe basic role of urban-rural boundary layer re-search is to study all kinds of physical process changesin the atmosphere boundary layer over urban and itssurrounding areas. Urban heat island (UHI) is a well-known feature of urban-rural climate. Attempts toincrease the understanding of the causes of the UHIand other urban-rural boundary layer phenomena haveused observational, theoretical and modelling methodssince long before. Seaman (1989) used a hydrostaticmodel, with real …  相似文献   

Small inflation sources producing seismic and infrasonic pulses during the 2000 eruptions of Miyake-jima, Japan     

Tomokazu Kobayashi  Yoshiaki Ida 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2005,240(2):291-301

During the 2000 activity of Miyake-jima volcano, Japan, we detected long period seismic signals with initial pulse widths of 1-2 s, accompanied by infrasonic pulses with almost the same pulse widths. The seismic signals were observed from 13 July 2000, a day before the second summit eruption. The occurrences of the seismic signals were intermittent with a gradual increase in their magnitudes and numbers building toward a significant explosive eruption on 18 August. After the eruption, the seismic and infrasonic events ceased. The results of a waveform inversion show that the initial motions were excited by an isotropic inflation source beneath the south edge of the caldera at a depth of 1.4 km. On the other hand, the sources of the infrasonic pulses were located in the summit caldera area. The times at which the infrasonic pulses were emitted at the surface were delayed by about 3 s from the origin times of the seismic events. It is suggested that small isotropic inflations excited seismic waves in the crust and simultaneously caused acoustic waves that traveled in the conduit and produced infrasonic pulses at the crater bottom. Considering the observed time differences and gas temperatures emitted from the vent, the conduit should have been filled with vapor mixed with SO₂ gas and volcanic ash. The change of the time differences between the seismic and infrasonic signals suggests that the seismic source became shallower within half a day before the August 18 explosive eruption. We interpret the source process as a fragmentation process of magma in which gas bubbles burst and quickly released part of the pressure that had been sustained by the tensional strength of magma.  相似文献   

Geostatistical simulation of random fields with bivariate isofactorial distributions by adding mosaic models     

Xavier Emery 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(5):348-360

This work deals with the geostatistical simulation of a family of stationary random field models with bivariate isofactorial distributions. Such models are defined as the sum of independent random fields with mosaic-type bivariate distributions and infinitely divisible univariate distributions. For practical applications, dead leaf tessellations are used since they provide a wide range of models and allow conditioning the realizations to a set of data via an iterative procedure (simulated annealing). The model parameters can be determined by comparing the data variogram and madogram, and enable to control the spatial connectivity of the extreme values in the realizations. An illustration to a forest dataset is presented, for which a negative binomial model is used to characterize the distribution of coniferous trees over a wooded area.  相似文献   

Chemical Profiles across a Jurassic Stratiform Manganese Deposit at Katsuyama in the Mino Terrane of Central Japan: Implications for Depositional Environment, Diagenetic Metal Redistribution and Paleoceanography     

Kosei Komuro  Koji Wakita 《Resource Geology》2005,55(4):321-336

Abstract. Inorganic chemical compositions are determined for a series of rocks crossing an Early Jurassic stratiform manganese ore deposit in a chert‐dominant sequence at Katsuyama, in the Mino Terrane of central Japan. The lithology in the vicinity of the manganese ore bed is classified into lower bedded chert, black shale, massive chert, manganese ore and upper bedded chert, in ascending order. The rocks surrounding the manganese deposit are anomalously high in certain elements: Pb (max. 29 ppm), Ni (1140) and Co (336) in the lower bedded chert, Mo (438), As (149), Tl (29) and U (12) in the black shales, V (210) and Cr (87) in the massive chert, and MnO and W (24) in the manganese ore. The aluminum‐normalized profiles reveal a distinct zonation of redox‐sensitive elements: Pb‐Zn, Ni‐Co‐Cu(‐Zn) and U‐Cr in the lower bedded chert, Mo‐As‐Tl in the black shale, V(‐Cr) in the massive chert, and Mn‐Fe‐Ba‐W in the manganese ore, in ascending order. The lower and upper bedded cherts and manganese ore generally exhibit flat rare earth element patterns with positive Ce anomalies, whereas the uppermost part of the lower bedded chert, the black shale and massive chert have flat patterns with weak or nonexistent negative Ce anomalies and weak positive Eu anomalies. The strong enrichment in Ni, Co, W, Tl and As detected in the Katsuyama section is not recognized in other sediments, including those of anoxic deposition origin, but is identified in modern ferromanganese nodules, suggesting that metal enrichment in the Katsuyama section is essentially due to the formation of ferromanganese nodules rather than to deposition in an anoxic environment. The observed elemental zonation is well explained by equilibrium calculations, reflecting early diagenetic formation and associated gradual reduction with depth. The concentration profiles in combination with litho‐ and biostratigraphical features suggest that formation of these bedded manganese deposits was triggered by an influx of warm, saline and oxic water into a stagnant deep ocean floor basin in Panthalassa at the end of the middle Early Jurassic. Paleoceanographic environmental controls thus appear to be important factors in the formation and preservation of this type of stratiform manganese deposit.  相似文献   

Statistical identification of orographic effects in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall          下载免费PDF全文

Pierluigi Furcolo  Anna Pelosi  Fabio Rossi 《水文研究》2016,30(9):1342-1353

Regional models of extreme rainfall must address the spatial variability induced by orographic obstacles. However, the proper detection of orographic effects often depends on the availability of a well‐designed rain gauge network. The aim of this study is to investigate a new method for identifying and characterizing the effects of orography on the spatial structure of extreme rainfall at the regional scale, including where rainfall data are lacking or fail to describe rainfall features thoroughly. We analyse the annual maxima of daily rainfall data in the Campania region, an orographically complex region in Southern Italy, and introduce a statistical procedure to identify spatial outliers in a low order statistic (namely the mean). The locations of these outliers are then compared with a pattern of orographic objects that has been a priori identified through the application of an automatic geomorphological procedure. The results show a direct and clear link between a particular set of orographic objects and a local increase in the spatial variability of extreme rainfall. This analysis allowed us to objectively identify areas where orography produces enhanced variability in extreme rainfall. It has direct implications for rain gauge network design criteria and has led to promising developments in the regional analysis of extreme rainfall. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Critical rainfall statistics for predicting watershed flood responses: rethinking the design storm concept          下载免费PDF全文

James O. Knighton  M. Todd Walter 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3788-3803

Recent advances have been made to modernize estimates of probable precipitation scenarios; however, researchers and engineers often continue to assume that rainfall events can be described by a small set of event statistics, typically average intensity and event duration. Given the easy availability of precipitation data and advances in desk‐top computational tools, we suggest that it is time to rethink the ‘design storm’ concept. Design storms should include more holistic characteristics of flood‐inducing rain events, which, in addition to describing specific hydrologic responses, may also be watershed or regionally specific. We present a sensitivity analysis of nine precipitation event statistics from observed precipitation events within a 60‐year record for Tompkins County, NY, USA. We perform a two‐sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to objectively identify precipitation event statistics of importance for two related hydrologic responses: (1) peak outflow from the Six Mile Creek watershed and (2) peak depth within the reservoir behind the Six Mile Creek Dam. We identify the total precipitation depth, peak hourly intensity, average intensity, event duration, interevent duration, and several statistics defining the temporal distribution of precipitation events to be important rainfall statistics to consider for predicting the watershed flood responses. We found that the two hydrologic responses had different sets of statistically significant parameters. We demonstrate through a stochastic precipitation generation analysis the effects of starting from a constrained parameter set (intensity and duration) when predicting hydrologic responses as opposed to utilizing an expanded suite of rainfall statistics. In particular, we note that the reduced precipitation parameter set may underestimate the probability of high stream flows and therefore underestimate flood hazard. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fingerprinting the 8.2 ka event climate response in a coupled climate model     

Ane P. Wiersma  Didier M. Roche  Hans Renssen 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(1):118-127

Using results from coupled climate model simulations of the 8.2 ka climate event that produced a cold period over Greenland in agreement with the reconstructed cooling from ice cores, we investigate the typical pattern of climate anomalies (fingerprint) to provide a framework for the interpretation of global proxy data for the 8.2 ka climate event. For this purpose we developed an analysis method that isolates the forced temperature response and provides information on spatial variations in magnitude, timing and duration that characterise the detectable climate event in proxy archives. Our analysis shows that delays in the temperature response to the freshwater forcing are present, mostly in the order of decades (30 a over central Greenland). The North Atlantic Ocean initially cools in response to the freshwater perturbation, followed in certain parts by a warm response. This delay, occurring more than 200 a after the freshwater pulse, hints at an overshoot in the recovery from the freshwater perturbation. The South Atlantic and the Southern Ocean show a warm response reflecting the bipolar seesaw effect. The duration of the simulated event varies for different areas, and the highest probability of recording the event in proxy archives is in the North Atlantic Ocean area north of 40° N. Our results may facilitate the interpretation of proxy archives recording the 8.2 ka event, as they show that timing and duration cannot be assumed to correspond with the timing and duration of the event as recorded in Greenland ice cores. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Severe soil erosion during a 3‐day exceptional rainfall event: combining modelling and field data for a fallow cereal field          下载免费PDF全文

Manuel López‐Vicente  Laura Quijano  Leticia Gaspar  Leticia Palazón  Ana Navas 《水文研究》2015,29(10):2358-2372

Exceptional rainfall events cause significant losses of soil, although few studies have addressed the validation of model predictions at field scale during severe erosive episodes. In this study, we evaluate the predictive ability of the enhanced Soil Erosion and Redistribution Tool (SERT‐2014) model for mapping and quantifying soil erosion during the exceptional rainfall event (~235 mm) that affected the Central Spanish Pyrenees in October 2012. The capacity of the simulation model is evaluated in a fallow cereal field (1.9 ha) at a high spatial scale (1 × 1 m). Validation was performed with field‐quantified rates of soil loss in the rills and ephemeral gullies and also with a detailed map of soil redistribution. The SERT‐2014 model was run for the six rainfall sub‐events that made up the exceptional event, simulating the different hydrological responses of soils with maximum runoff depths ranging between 40 and 1017 mm. Predicted average and maximum soil erosion was 11 and 117 Mg ha^?1 event^?1, respectively. Total soil loss and sediment yield to the La Reina gully amounted to 16.3 and 9.0 Mg event^?1. These rates are in agreement with field estimations of soil loss of 20.0 Mg event^?1. Most soil loss (86%) occurred during the first sub‐event. Although soil accumulation was overestimated in the first sub‐event because of the large amount of detached soil, the enhanced SERT‐2014 model successfully predicted the different spatial patterns and values of soil redistribution for each sub‐event. Further research should focus on stream transport capacity. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献