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101.
102.
A method is introduced to calculate and to account for the uncertainties in the predictions of oil spill trajectories using a classic oil spill model. The method considers the output of the oil spill model as a function of random variables, which are the input parameters, and calculates the standard deviation of the output results which gives a measure of the uncertainty of the model given the uncertainties of the input parameters.Instead of a single trajectory that is calculated by the oil spill model using the mean values of the parameters, a band of trajectories can be defined when various simulations are done taking into account the uncertainties of the input parameters. This band of trajectories defines envelopes of the trajectories that are likely to be followed by the spill given the uncertainties of the input.The method is applied to an oil spill that occurred in open sea near Madeira Islands, in the Atlantic Ocean, in December 1989. The simulations allow the understanding of how a change in the wind direction drove the spill towards the Islands.The envelope of likely trajectories that is obtained with the uncertainty modelling shows a band of trajectories that is in better agreement with the observations than the single trajectory simulated by the oil spill model, based on mean parameters. 相似文献
103.
A time-domain method is applied to simulate nonlinear wave diffraction around a surface piercing 3-D arbitrary body. The method involves the application of Taylor series expansions and the use of perturbation procedure to establish the corresponding boundary value problems with respect to a time-independent fluid domain. A boundary element method based on B-spline expansion is used to calculate the wave field at each time step, and the free surface boundary condition is satisfied to the second order of wave steepness by a numerical integration in time. An artificial damping layer is adopted on the free surface for the removal of wave reflection from the outer boundary. As an illustration, the method is used to compute the second-order wave forces and run-up on a surface-piercing circular cylinder. The present method is found to be accurate, computationally efficient, and numerically stable. 相似文献
104.
Lale BALAS 《中国海洋工程》2001,(4):565-578
The circulation pattern and the pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay are simulated by the developed three-dimensional baroclinic model. The Marmaris Bay is located at the Mediterranean Sea coast of Turkey. Since the sp ring tidal range is typically 20- 30 cm, the dominant forcing for the circulation and water exchange is due to the wind action. In the Marmaris Bay, there is sea outfall discharging directly into the bay. and that threats the bay water quality significantly. The current patterns in the vicinity of the outfall have been observed by tracking drogues which are moved by currents at different water depths. In the simulations of pollutant transport, the coliforms-counts is used as the tracer. The model provides realistic predictions for the circulation and pollutant transport in the Marmaris Bay. The transport model component predictions well agree with the results of a laboratory model study. 相似文献
105.
A model for solving the two-dimensional enhanced Boussinesq equations is presented. The model equations are discretised in space using an unstructured finite element technique. The standard Galerkin method with mixed interpolation is applied. The time discretisation is performed using an explicit three-step Taylor–Galerkin method. The model is extended to the surf and swash zone by inclusion of wave breaking and a moving boundary at the shoreline. Breaking is treated by an existing surface roller model, but a new procedure for the detection of the roller thickness is devised. The model is verified using four test cases and the results are compared with experimental data and results from an existing finite difference Boussinesq model. 相似文献
106.
107.
108.
Evaluating fishery impacts using metrics of community structure 总被引:8,自引:14,他引:8
109.
贡湖及其相关水域风生流模拟研究 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
在太湖风生流的数值模拟研究的基础上,设计模拟贡湖及其相关水域风生流的套网格数值模式。应用该模式研究不同风情下,梅梁湖,太湖主体湖水对贡湖的影响。 相似文献
110.
This paper presents a potential based boundary element method for solving a nonlinear free surface flow problem for a ship moving with a uniform speed in finite depth of water. The free surface boundary condition is linearized by the systematic method of perturbation in terms of a small parameter up to third order. The surfaces are discretized into flat quadrilateral elements and the influence coefficients are calculated by Morino's analytical formula. Dawson's upstream finite difference operator is used in order to satisfy the radiation condition. The second order solution gives better result than the first or third order solution. So the present method with the second order solution can be adopted as a powerful tool for the hydrodynamic analysis of the thin ship in finite depth of water. 相似文献