An initial scoping of transitional justice for global climate governance     

Sonja Klinsky 《Climate Policy》2018,18(6):752-765

Geopolitical changes combined with the increasing urgency of ambitious climate action have re-opened debates about justice and international climate policy. Tensions about historical responsibility have been particularly difficult and could intensify with increased climate impacts and as developing countries face mounting pressure to take mitigation action. Climate change is not the only time humans have faced historically rooted, collective action challenges involving justice disputes. Practices and tools from transitional justice have been used in over 30 countries across a range of conflicts at the interface of historical responsibility and imperatives for collective futures. Central to this body of theory and experience is the need to reflect both backwards- and forwards-oriented elements in efforts to build social solidarity. Lessons from transitional justice theory and practice have not been systematically explored in the climate context. This article conceptually examines the potential of transitional justice practices to inform global climate governance by looking at the structural similarities and differences between the global climate regime and traditional transitional justice contexts. It then identifies a suite of common transitional justice practices and assesses their potential applicability in the climate context.

POLICY RELEVANCE

• Justice disputes, including about historical responsibility and future climate actions, are long-standing in the climate context and could intensify with increased climate impacts and broadened mitigation pressures.

• Lessons from efforts to use transitional justice mechanisms could provide insight into strategies for balancing recognition of harms rooted in the past, while creating stronger future-oriented collective action.

• Several areas of transitional justice practice including: the combination of amnesties and litigation, truth commissions, reparations and institutional change could provide useful insights for the climate context.

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河南省森林火险月季尺度定量客观化预测     

吴璐 《气象与环境科学》2018,41(2):93-99

基于火灾资料和气象资料,利用数理统计方法和百分位法,分析了河南省林区火灾的气候特征及防火关键期高火险日数的月、季气候特征。结果表明,林区火灾次数年际波动较大,主要出现在每年的冬春季(12月次年4月),3月出现的次数最多,2月的次之。火灾峰值主要出现在13-16时。3月高火险日数存在显著增加的线性趋势,12月和1月高火险日数呈现先减少后增加的趋势。2月和4月高火险日数处在偏少的年代际背景下。林区春季高火险日数存在显著增加的线性趋势,在桐柏-大别山林区尤其明显。选取河南省防火关键期各月、季高火险日数与海温、积雪、环流场等130项环流指数的相关关系最好的因子,利用最优子集回归分别建立基于林区内各个气象站点的预测方程。通过回代检验和趋势异常综合评分(Ps),对回归方程预测效果进行检验,结果显示,回代曲线和历史曲线吻合好,表明预测方程预测结果接近实况。  相似文献   

A GIS-based fire spread simulator integrating a simplified physical wildland fire model and a wind field model     

D. Prieto Herráez  L. Ferragut Canals  J. M. Cascón Barbero  A. Morillo Rodríguez 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(11):2142-2163

??This article discusses the integration of two models, namely, the Physical Forest Fire Spread (PhFFS) and the High Definition Wind Model (HDWM), into a Geographical Information System-based interface. The resulting tool automates data acquisition, preprocesses spatial data, launches the aforementioned models and displays the corresponding results in a unique environment. Our implementation uses the Python language and Esri’s ArcPy library to extend the functionality of ArcMap 10.4. The PhFFS is a simplified 2D physical wildland fire spread model based on conservation equations, with convection and radiation as heat transfer mechanisms. It also includes some 3D effects. The HDWM arises from an asymptotic approximation of the Navier–Stokes equations, and provides a 3D wind velocity field in an air layer above the terrain surface. Both models can be run in standalone or coupled mode. Finally, the simulation of a real fire in Galicia (Spain) confirms that the tool developed is efficient and fully operational.  相似文献   

Interdecadal variation in Korean spring drought in the early 1990s     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2017

Statistical change-point analysis was applied to a spring time series of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) in Korea, and this showed that the total analysis period can be divided into two periods: a wet period (1975–1990) and a dry period (1991–2014). To investigate the deepening of the spring drought in Korea, a difference in the spring means between the 1991–2014 and 1975–1990 periods was analyzed with respect to large-scale environments. In the recent spring, a typical pressure system pattern in winter, which was an anomalous west-high east-low pressure system pattern, was strengthened throughout the troposphere around Korea. Due to the anomalous pressure system pattern, Korea was affected by relatively cold and dry anomalous northerlies. Furthermore, the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) was not intensified, and thus the supply of warm and moist airs into Korea was further reduced due to the upper-level jet moving further to the south. In order to determine the reason for the development of the anomalous west-high east-low pressure system pattern in East Asia, the difference in spring snow depth between the two periods was analyzed, and the analysis results showed that positive anomalies were predominant throughout most regions in East Eurasia. As a result, in the analysis of the ground heat net flux, negative anomalies were strengthened in most regions in East Eurasia. The cooling effect in the surrounding regions due to the high snow depth in East Eurasia strengthened the anomalous pressure system pattern as a west-high east-low type.  相似文献   

Interdecadal variation of precipitation days in August in the Korean Peninsula     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2017

The present study examines a climate regime shift in the time series of the number of rainy days during August in the Korean Peninsula. The statistical change-point analysis indicates that a significant shift occurred in the time series around 1998, providing a rationale to divide it into two parts: 1975–1997 for the shorter rainy-day period and 1998–2012 for the longer rainy-day period. To examine the cause of recent rapid increases in the number of days with precipitation in August in the Korean Peninsula, differences in the averages of large-scale environments between the 1998–2012 period and the 1975–1997 period were analyzed.The differences in stream flows showed that anomalous cyclones were reinforced in the East Asian continent while anomalous anticyclones were reinforced in the western North Pacific at all layers of the troposphere. The anomalous anticyclones reinforced in the western North Pacific were associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) developed a little more toward the Korean Peninsula recently. Consequently, the Korean Peninsula has been affected by anomalous south westerlies that supplied warm and humid airs from low tropical regions to the Korean Peninsula. The vertical thermal instability (warm anomaly at lower-level and cold anomaly at middle and upper-level) developed near the Korean Peninsula. In addition, upper tropospheric jets were reinforced further recently near the Korean Peninsula to provide good environments for development of upward flows. The frequency of TCs that affect the Korean Peninsula in August also increased rapidly since 1998.  相似文献   

全新世巢湖沉积物炭屑记录的火环境变化     

吴立  张梦翠  计超  张诗陶 《地理科学》2016,36(12):1920-1928

通过对巢湖湖泊沉积岩芯不同粒级炭屑浓度和磁化率等指标变化的研究,揭示了全新世以来的区域火环境变化及人类活动影响。结果表明：① 全新世早期,气候由寒冷干旱向温暖湿润过渡,但仍较为干旱,炭屑浓度也相对略高,火活动比较频繁,地方性和区域性火时有发生;② 全新世中期是最温暖湿润的适宜期,炭屑浓度出现全新世以来的低值,火活动微弱,但在文化兴盛时期炭屑浓度出现峰值,则归因于人类活动的影响;③ 全新世晚期,在气候趋于凉干的环境背景下,人类活动的增强更加剧了火活动的频率和强度,炭屑浓度大幅增加;④ 近200 a炭屑浓度的降低可能与湖区附近已没有足够生物量引起火灾有关。  相似文献   

海岸沙丘沙运动特征若干问题的研究——以闽江口南岸为例     

陈方  贺辉扬 《中国沙漠》1997,17(4):355-361

在海岸带,沙粒粒径和水分含量是决定沙粒起动风速的最主要因素。闽江口南岸海滩沙的平均粒径为2.0Φ,水分含量多在0.3%~1.0%之间。运用Johnson的经验公式,可计算出海滩沙的起动风速为6~7m/s。这一结果与实际观测值十分吻合。由于海岸环境因素的影响,使得同等条件下海岸带沙粒的起动风速明显大于内陆沙漠沙,而风沙流的输沙率明显小于内陆沙漠沙。海岸带是风速剧变带,在引用陆地气象台站的风速记录分析海岸风况和研究风沙运动规律时,必须对风速进行订正。  相似文献   

目标函数聚类法在地下水动态分类中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙才志  林山杉 《吉林地质》1999,18(2):50-55

地下水动态类型的划分是正确认识研究区水文地质条件与地下水开发利用之间关系的一个重要环节。本文论述了目标函数聚类法的原理与计算过程,并应用该方法对某河流附近的１５个观测孔的水位动态进行分类。分析结果表明该方法具有较高的可靠性与较广的适用性。  相似文献   

对未来防洪减灾形势和对策的一些思考   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

徐乾清 《水科学进展》1999,10(3):235-241

简要介绍了20世纪90年代我国大江大河的防洪形势。重点指出:河道萎缩,江河泄洪能力下降,行洪水位抬高,城市水灾突出,洪涝矛盾加重和水灾损失急剧增加的特点。探讨了防洪减灾的目标和标准,在进行防洪策略历史回顾的基础上,阐述了防洪减灾对策和基本措施方向。  相似文献   

白云母、高岭石矿物中羟基的o同位素分析方法研究     

李延河  蒋少涌 《地球学报》1999,20(1):63-66

羟基矿物内部存在两种位于不同结构位置上的氧原子硅氧四面体氧和羟基氧,二者之间的Ｏ同位素分馏可能比任何共生矿物对都大,是一种潜在的单矿物同位素地质温度计。单矿物同位素地质温度计较矿物对同位素地质温度计有很多优点。准确测量矿物中羟基的Ｏ同位素组成是建立单矿物同位素地质温度计的关键。本文介绍了一种精确测量白云母、高岭石矿物中羟基的Ｏ同位素组成的新方法火焰加热真空脱水氟化法。δ１８ＯＯＨ的分析精度达到０３‰,羟基氧的提取率达到９９％～１００％。实验证明羟基矿物在高温真空脱水过程中不存在Ｏ同位素动力学分馏,羟基水  相似文献