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81.
Mark Bebbington Shane J. Cronin Ian Chapman Michael B. Turner 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Quantifying the potential ash fall hazards from re-awakening volcanoes is a topic of great interest. While methods for calculating the probability of eruptions, and for numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and fallout exist, event records at most volcanoes that re-awaken sporadically on decadal to millennial cycles are inadequate to develop rigorous forecasts of occurrence, much less eruptive volume. Here we demonstrate a method by which eruption records from radiocarbon-dated sediment cores can be used to derive forecasting models for ash fall impacts on electrical infrastructure. Our method is illustrated by an example from the Taranaki region of New Zealand. Radiocarbon dates, expressed as years before present (B.P.), are used to define an age-depth model, classifying eruption ages (with associated errors) for a circa 1500–10 500 year B.P. record at Mt. Taranaki (New Zealand). In addition, data describing the youngest 1500 years of eruption activity is obtained from directly dated proximal deposits. Absence of trend and apparent independence in eruption intervals is consistent with a renewal model using a mix of Weibulls distributions, which was used to generate probabilistic forecasts of eruption recurrence. After establishing that interval length and tephra thickness were independent in the record, a thickness–volume relationship (from [Rhoades, D.A., Dowrick, D.J., Wilson, C.J.N., 2002. Volcanic hazard in New Zealand: Scaling and attenuation relations for tephra fall deposits from Taupo volcano. Nat. Hazards, 26:147–174]) was inverted to provide a frequency–volume relationship for eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation of the thickness–volume relationship was then used to produce probable ash fall thicknesses at any chosen site. Several critical electrical infrastructure sites in the Taranaki Region were analysed. This region, being the only gas and condensate-producing area in New Zealand, is of national economic importance, with activities in and around the area depending on uninterrupted power supplies. Forecasts of critical ash thicknesses (1 mm wet and 2 mm dry) that may cause short-circuiting, surges or power shutdowns in substations show that the annual probabilities of serious impact are between ~ 0.5% and 27% over a 50 year period. It was also found that while large eruptions with high ash plumes tend to affect “expected” areas in relation to prevailing winds, the direction impacts of small ash falls are far less predictable. In the Taranaki case study, areas out of normal downwind directions, but close to the volcano, have probabilities of impact for critical thicknesses of 1–2 mm of around half to 60% of those in downwind directions and therefore should not be overlooked in hazard analysis. Through this method we are able to definitively show that the potential ash fall hazard to electrical infrastructure in this area is low in comparison to other natural threats, and provide a quantitative measure for use in risk analysis and budget prioritisation for hazard mitigation measures. 相似文献
82.
83.
Roberto Sulpizio Rosanna Bonasia Pierfrancesco Dellino Mauro A. Di Vito Luigi La Volpe Daniela Mele Giovanni Zanchetta Laura Sadori 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2008
Ash samples from tephra layers correlated with the Pomici di Avellino (Avellino Pumice) eruption of Somma-Vesuvius were collected in distal archives and their composition and particle morphology investigated in order to infer their behaviour of transportation and deposition. Differences in composition and particle morphologies were recognised for ash particles belonging to the magmatic Plinian and final phreatomagmatic phases of the eruption. The ash particles were dispersed in opposite directions during the two different phases of the eruption, and these directions are also different from that of coarse-grained fallout deposits. In particular, ash generated during magmatic phase and injected in the atmosphere to form a sustained column shows a prevailing SE dispersion, while ash particles generated during the final phreatomagmatic phase and carried by pyroclastic density currents show a general NW dispersion. These opposite dispersions indicate an ash dispersal influenced by both high and low atmosphere dynamics. In particular, the magmatic ash dispersal was first driven by stratospheric wind towards NE and then the falling particles encountered a variable wind field during their settling, which produced the observed preferential SE dispersal. The wind field encountered by the rising ash clouds that accompanied the pyroclastic density currents of the final phreatomagmatic phase was different with respect to that encountered by the magmatic ash, and produced a NW dispersal. These data demonstrate how ash transportation and deposition are greatly influenced by both high and low atmosphere dynamics. In particular, fine-grained particles transported in ash clouds of small-scale pyroclastic density currents may be dispersed over distances and cover areas comparable with those injected into the stratosphere by Plinian, sustained columns. This is a point not completely addressed by present day mitigation plans in case of renewal of activity at Somma-Vesuvius, and can yield important information also for other volcanoes potentially characterised by explosive activity. 相似文献
84.
The dispersal of volcanic ash from the May 18, 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens (MSH) has been simulated using the Lagrangian ash-tracking model PUFF. Previous applications of the model were limited to smaller, short-lived eruptions with ash dispersal occurring mainly within the troposphere. Two high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR-40) allowed MSH ash cloud dispersal to be simulated up to 30 km elevation. The 1980 eruption was divided into two distinct eruptive phases, (1) an initial, relatively short-lived blast/surge phase that injected ash up to 30 km and (2) a subsequent nine-hour plinian phase that maintained an average eruption column height of 16 km. Using PUFF, the two phases of the MSH eruption were modeled separately based on a range of individual input parameters and then combined to produce an integrated simulation of the entire eruption. The trajectory and areal extent of the modeled atmospheric ash cloud best match the actual distribution of MSH ash when input parameters are set to values inferred from satellite and radar data collected on May 18, 1980. The prevailing wind field exerts the strongest control on the advection and ultimate position of the modeled ash cloud, making the maximum column height and the vertical distribution of ash the most sensitive of the PUFF input parameters for this event. The results indicate that the PUFF model works well at simulating the dispersal of ash injected well into the lower stratosphere from a moderate, relatively long-lived eruption, such as MSH. However, attempts to use PUFF to recreate some granulometric aspects of the MSH fallout deposit, such as the maximum particle size as a function of distance from source, were not successful. PUFF consistently predicts much greater fallout distances for small ash particles (< 500 µm) than actually observed in the MSH deposit. The effective settling velocities used by the PUFF model appear to be too slow to accurately predict fallout distances of small ash particles. As a consequence the PUFF model may overestimate the duration of ash loading in the atmosphere associated with the distal fine ash component of explosive eruptions. 相似文献
85.
86.
87.
Sedimentological constraints on hydrometeor-enhanced particle deposition: 1992 Eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Water is a dominant component of volcanic clouds and has fundamental control on very fine particle deposition. Particle size characteristics of distal tephra-fall (100s km from source volcano) have a higher proportion of very fine particles compared to predictions based on single particle settling rates. In this study, sedimentological analyses of fallout from for the 18 August and 16–17 September 1992 eruptions of Crater Peak, Alaska, are combined with satellite observations, and cloud trajectory and microphysics modeling to investigate meteorological influences on particle sedimentation. Total grain size distributions of tephra fallout were reconstructed for both Crater Peak eruptions and indicate a predominance of fine particles < 125 μm. Polymodal analysis of the deposits has identified a particle subpopulation with mode ~ 15–18 μm involved in particle aggregation. Accounting for the magmatic water source only, calculated ice water content of the 3.7 hour old September 1992 Spurr cloud was ~ 4.5 × 10− 2 g m− 3 (based on an estimated cloud thickness of ~ 1000 m from trajectory modeling). Hydrometeor formation on particles in the volcanic cloud and subsequent sublimation may induce a cloud base instability that leads to rapid bulk (en masse) sedimentation of very fine particles through a mammatus-like mechanism. 相似文献
88.
P.W. Webley B.J.B. Stunder K.G. Dean 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》2009,186(1-2):108
Ash clouds are one of the major hazards that result from volcanic eruptions. Once an eruption is reported, volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD) models are used to forecast the location of the ash cloud. These models require source parameters to describe the ash column for initialization. These parameters include: eruption cloud height and vertical distribution, particle size distribution, and start and end time of the eruption. Further, if downwind concentrations are needed, the eruption mass rate and/or volume of ash need to be known. Upon notification of an eruption, few constraints are typically available on many of these source parameters. Recently, scientists have defined classes of eruption types, each with a set of pre-defined eruption source parameters (ESP). We analyze the August 18, 1992 eruption of the Crater Peak vent at Mount Spurr, Alaska, which is the example case for the Medium Silicic eruption type. We have evaluated the sensitivity of two of the ESP – the grain size distribution (GSD) and the vertical distribution of ash – on the modeled ash cloud. HYSPLIT and Puff VATD models are used to simulate the ash clouds from the different sets of source parameters. We use satellite data, processed through the reverse absorption method, as reference for computing statistics that describe the modeled-to-observed comparison. With the grain size distribution, the three options chosen, (1) an estimated distribution based on past eruption studies, (2) a distribution with finer particles and (3) the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration HYSPLIT GSD, have little effect on the modeled ash cloud. For the initial vertical distribution, both linear (uniform concentration throughout the vertical column) and umbrella shapes were chosen. For HYSPLIT, the defined umbrella distribution (no ash below the umbrella), apparently underestimates the lower altitude portions of the ash cloud and as a result has a worse agreement with the satellite detected ash cloud compared to that with the linear vertical distribution for this particular eruption. The Puff model, with a Poisson function to represent the umbrella cloud, gave similar results as for a linear distribution, both having reasonable agreement with the satellite detected cloud. Further sensitivity studies of this eruption, as well as studies using the other source parameters, are needed. 相似文献
89.
Fine ash content of explosive eruptions 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In explosive eruptions, the mass proportion of ash that is aerodynamically fine enough to cause problems with jet aircraft or human lungs (< 30 to 60 μm in diameter) is in the range of a few percent to more than 50%. The proportions are higher for silicic explosive eruptions, probably because vesicle size in the pre-eruptive magma is smaller than those in mafic magmas. There is good evidence that pyroclastic flows produce high proportions of fine ash by communition and it is likely that this process also occurs inside volcanic conduits and would be most efficient when the magma fragmentation surface is well below the summit crater. Reconstructed total grain size distributions for several recent explosive eruptions indicate that basaltic eruptions have small proportions of very fine ash (~ 1 to 4%) while tephra generated during silicic eruptions contains large proportions (30 to > 50%). 相似文献
90.
The present work involves the study of Se(IV) adsorption onto bagasse fly ash. The adsorbents were coated with a ferric chloride solution for the effective removal of selenium. The physico‐chemical characterization of the adsorbent was carried out using standard methods, e. g., proximate analysis, scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, thermo‐gravimetric analysis and differential thermal analysis. Batch experiments were carried out to determine the effect of various parameters such as adsorbent dose, initial pH, contact time, and temperature on the adsorption process. Results obtained from these studies were analyzed using various kinetic models and isotherms. Se(IV) adsorption onto adsorbent was high at low pH values, and decreased with an increase in initial pH. A temperature study showed that the uptake of Se(IV) was greatest at 293 K, within the temperature range studied. The parameters of pseudo first order, pseudo second order, and Weber‐Morris intra‐particle kinetic models were determined. Equilibrium isotherms were analyzed using Langmuir, Freundlich, and Temkin isotherms. Error analyses were also carried out using hybrid fractional error function and Marquardt's percent standard deviation. 相似文献