肇州降水集中度和集中期的气候特征分析     

周明丽  娄德君 《黑龙江气象》2010,27(2):5-6,14

对近50年来肇州降水的集中度和集中期进行了计算分析,结果表明:近50年来,降水的集中程度有下降的趋势,集中期有提前的趋势。集中度和集中期分别存在着11a和14a左右的年代际尺度周期变化。肇州的年降水量呈下降趋势,肇州降水集中度和集中期与年降水量有很好的正相关性,年降水总量比较大的年份,降水集中程度相对较高。  相似文献   

全球数值模式中的台风初始化Ⅱ: 业务应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

瞿安祥  麻素红  李娟  胡江凯  LIU Qingfu 《气象学报》2009,67(5):727-735

由于缺少大量有效的观测资料,台风初始化对数值天气预报业务模式而言,仍然是一个悬而末决的难题.中国国家气象中心自从1996年将台风数值预报系统投入业务运行以来,一直使用经验的人造bogus涡旋台风初始化技术.实际上,不同时期的台风有着不同的环流结构,即使同一个台风在不同的生命期也具有不同的结构特征,而这些结构特征的差异并不能依靠现有的bogus涡旋技术体现出来,这种主观方法的统一性与台风在时空上的差异性形成了强烈的反差.最近,基于国家气象中心全球资料分析同化-预报循环系统,设计和发展了一套新的台风初始化业务方案,它主要由初始涡旋形成、涡旋重定位和涡旋调整3部分过程组成.相比于业务中使用的人造bogus涡旋台风初始化方案,新方案在很大程度上减少了人为因素对台风涡旋结构的影响,而更多地是依靠数值模式自身的动力和物理过程来协调约束产生三维空间的涡旋结构.应用新方案,文中对生成于西北太平洋的2006年0605号台风格美(Kaemi)进行了数值试验,初步分析表明,新方案在实现台风涡旋环流结构的初始化方面效果较好,同时,对台风格美多个时次的预报结果也显示,相比于业务使用的bogus方案而言,新方案对台风路径平均预报误差有了大幅度的降低.  相似文献   

西北太平洋热带气旋源地变化特征及与局地海表温度的关系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

杨亚新  邱新法 《气象》2009,35(5):83-90

为提高热带气旋的短期气候预测水平,利用1950-2005年西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)和表层水温(SST)资料,分析了西北太平洋TC生成位置分布的一般气候特征,季节、年际变化特征及其与局地SST之间的关系,同时还探讨了TC强度、路径与TC生成位置之间的关系.结果表明,西北太平洋存在4个TC高频源地,分别是南海中北部偏东洋面、菲律宾以东附近洋面、关岛附近洋面和马绍尔群岛附近洋面,其中关岛附近洋面TC发生数最多,是TC发生的一个主要源地.TC生成位置分布存在显著的季节和年际变化特征,这种变化与局地SST存在密切的关系,局地SST升高,TC生成位置偏西、偏北,反之,则偏东、偏南.同时发现,TC生成位置西北边界与月平均SST的27.5℃等温线具有较好的匹配关系,绝大多数TC都发生在月平均SST≥27.5℃的海区.TC强度、路径与TC生成位置之间存在一定的关系.TC生成位置偏东偏南,其发展强度相对较强,路径偏东偏南,可导致影响我国南部海区和日本东部沿海的TC个数增加;TC生成位置偏西偏北,其发展强度相对较弱,路径偏西北,可导致影响我国东部和北部沿海的TC个数增加.  相似文献   

南极洲低层两种位势高度再分析资料的比较     

施宁  王盘兴  徐海明  郭栋 《高原气象》2008,27(6)

比较NCEP/NCAR和ECMWF两种再分析资料南半球低层等压面(700 hPa及以下)的平均位势高度场,结果表明:两者在南极洲差异显著,除12月、1月(南半球夏季)外,NCEP/NCAR资料存在一个虚假的很强的极地高压,而ECMWF资料正常。分析表明该两种再分析资料的上述差异来源于南极洲地面以下虚拟气压场的产生过程;NCEP/NCAR资料较ECMWF少了一个对南极洲过低地面温度的修正。由此得到的NCEP/NCAR资料若用于南半球低层大气环流整体结构的分析,会导致严重的错误。  相似文献   

云南雨季开始期演变特征分析   总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10  

陶云  郑建萌  万云霞  刘瑜 《气候与环境研究》2006,11(2):229-235

应用EOF分析方法、小波分析方法及云南16个地州代表站1961～2002年共42年逐日降水量资料,对云南雨季开始期的空间分布、时间演变及多尺度周期变化等特征进行了诊断研究.结果表明:1)云南雨季开始期的空间分布,第一主要特征是全省雨季开始期一致偏早(晚);第二主要特征为云南滇中及以东、以南地区与云南西部雨季开始期反向变化的空间异常分布型态;2)云南雨季开始期存在明显的40年左右长周期、28年左右的年代际周期和8年左右的年际周期.从小波方差看,云南雨季开始期的变化以40年和28年左右的变化周期的振动最强,变化最显著,而年际变化相对较弱;3)云南雨季开始偏早期与偏晚期5月份500 hPa高度距平场有着明显区别;4)印度季风与南海季风对云南雨季开始爆发也起着积极的作用.  相似文献   

A survey for satellites of Venus     

Scott S. Sheppard  Chadwick A. Trujillo 《Icarus》2009,202(1):12-16

We present a systematic survey for satellites of Venus using the Baade-Magellan 6.5 m telescope and IMACS wide-field CCD imager at Las Campanas observatory in Chile. In the outer portions of the Hill sphere the search was sensitive to a limiting red magnitude of about 20.4, which corresponds to satellites with radii of a few hundred meters when assuming an albedo of 0.1. In the very inner portions of the Hill sphere scattered light from Venus limited the detection to satellites of about a kilometer or larger. Although several main belt asteroids were found, no satellites (moons) of Venus were detected.  相似文献   

Halo masses for optically selected and for radio-loud AGN from clustering and galaxy–galaxy lensing     

Rachel Mandelbaum †  Cheng Li  Guinevere Kauffmann  Simon D. M. White 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(2):377-392

We compute two-point correlation functions and measure the shear signal due to galaxy–galaxy lensing for 80 000 optically identified and 5700 radio-loud active galactic nuclei (AGN) from Data Release 4 of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Halo occupation models are used to estimate halo masses and satellite fractions for these two types of AGN. The large sample size allows us to separate AGN according to the stellar mass of their host galaxies. We study how the halo masses of optical and radio AGN differ from those of the parent population at fixed   M _*  . Halo masses deduced from clustering and from lensing agree satisfactorily. Radio AGN are found in more massive haloes than optical AGN: in our samples, their mean halo masses are  1.6 × 10¹³  and  8 × 10¹¹  h ⁻¹ M_⊙  , respectively. Optical AGN follow the same relation between stellar mass and halo mass as galaxies selected without regard to nuclear properties, but radio-loud AGN deviate significantly from this relation. The dark matter haloes of radio-loud AGN are about twice as massive as those of control galaxies of the same stellar mass. This boost is independent of radio luminosity, and persists even when our analysis is restricted to field galaxies. The large-scale gaseous environment of the galaxy clearly plays a crucial role in producing observable radio emission. The dark matter halo masses that we derive for the AGN in our two samples are in good agreement with recent models in which feedback from radio AGN becomes dominant in haloes where gas cools quasi-statically.  相似文献   

iVINE – Ionization in the parallel tree/sph code VINE: first results on the observed age-spread around O-stars     

M. Gritschneder  T. Naab  A. Burkert  S. Walch  F. Heitsch  M. Wetzstein 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(1):21-31

We present a three-dimensional, fully parallelized, efficient implementation of ionizing ultraviolet (UV) radiation for smoothed particle hydrodynamics ( sph ) including self-gravity. Our method is based on the sph / tree code vine . We therefore call it iVINE (for Ionization + VINE). This approach allows detailed high-resolution studies of the effects of ionizing radiation from, for example, young massive stars on their turbulent parental molecular clouds. In this paper, we describe the concept and the numerical implementation of the radiative transfer for a plane-parallel geometry and we discuss several test cases demonstrating the efficiency and accuracy of the new method. As a first application, we study the radiatively driven implosion of marginally stable molecular clouds at various distances of a strong UV source and show that they are driven into gravitational collapse. The resulting cores are very compact and dense exactly as it is observed in clustered environments. Our simulations indicate that the time of triggered collapse depends on the distance of the core from the UV source. Clouds closer to the source collapse several 10⁵ yr earlier than more distant clouds. This effect can explain the observed age spread in OB associations where stars closer to the source are found to be younger. We discuss possible uncertainties in the observational derivation of shock front velocities due to early stripping of protostellar envelopes by ionizing radiation.  相似文献   

Dynamical simulations of the planetary system HD 69830     

Matthew J. Payne  Eric B. Ford  Mark C. Wyatt  Mark Booth 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,393(4):1219-1234

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On corotation torques, horseshoe drag and the possibility of sustained stalled or outward protoplanetary migration   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S.-J. Paardekooper  J. C. B. Papaloizou 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,394(4):2283-2296

We study the torque on low-mass protoplanets on fixed circular orbits, embedded in a protoplanetary disc in the isothermal limit. We consider a wide range of surface density distributions including cases where the surface density increases smoothly outwards. We perform both linear disc response calculations and non-linear numerical simulations. We consider a large range of viscosities, including the inviscid limit, as well as a range of protoplanet mass ratios, with special emphasis on the co-orbital region and the corotation torque acting between disc and protoplanet.
For low-mass protoplanets and large viscosity, the corotation torque behaves as expected from linear theory. However, when the viscosity becomes small enough to enable horseshoe turns to occur, the linear corotation torque exists only temporarily after insertion of a planet into the disc, being replaced by the horseshoe drag first discussed by Ward. This happens after a time that is equal to the horseshoe libration period reduced by a factor amounting to about twice the disc aspect ratio. This torque scales with the radial gradient of specific vorticity, as does the linear torque, but we find it to be many times larger. If the viscosity is large enough for viscous diffusion across the co-orbital region to occur within a libration period, we find that the horseshoe drag may be sustained. If not, the corotation torque saturates leaving only the linear Lindblad torques. As the magnitude of the non-linear co-orbital torque (horseshoe drag) is always found to be larger than the linear torque, we find that the sign of the total torque may change even for mildly positive surface density gradients. In combination with a kinematic viscosity large enough to keep the torque from saturating, strong sustained deviations from linear theory and outward or stalled migration may occur in such cases.  相似文献