四川地区多模式2m温度预报性能分析及集成方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

冯良敏  周秋雪  陈朝平  范江琳 《高原山地气象研究》2019,39(2):30-36

本文通过分析2017年9~12月四川地区ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格模式、GRAPES_GFS(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球模式和西南区域模式(South West Center-WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System, SWCWARMS)2m温度168h预报时效内的系统性偏差特征,采用滑动双权重平均法分别对三种模式温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并集成得到各时效2m温度的订正场,结果表明:(1)三种模式的预报存在明显的日变化,整体上EC模式的预报最优。(2)三种模式对于低温和高温的预报,在全省均大致呈现负的系统性误差,特别在高原及过渡区表现的尤为明显。(3)订正后三种模式的预报准确率显著提高,均方根误差减小1.4~2.5℃,大部分地区平均误差维持在±0.5℃之间,在系统性偏差较大的地区,订正效果更好。(4)两种集成方案预报结果接近,且均优于三种模式的订正预报。  相似文献   

Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Hindcasts of Stratospheric Sudden Warming by BCC_CSM1.1(m):A Comparison with ECMWF     

Jian RAO  Rongcai REN  Haishan CHEN  Xiangwen LIU  Yueyue YU  Yang YANG 《大气科学进展》2019,36(5):479-494

This study focuses on model predictive skill with respect to stratospheric sudden warming(SSW) events by comparing the hindcast results of BCC_CSM1.1(m) with those of the ECMWF's model under the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project of the World Weather Research Program and World Climate Research Program. When the hindcasts are initiated less than two weeks before SSW onset, BCC_CSM and ECMWF show comparable predictive skill in terms of the temporal evolution of the stratospheric circumpolar westerlies and polar temperature up to 30 days after SSW onset. However, with earlier hindcast initialization, the predictive skill of BCC_CSM gradually decreases, and the reproduced maximum circulation anomalies in the hindcasts initiated four weeks before SSW onset replicate only 10% of the circulation anomaly intensities in observations. The earliest successful prediction of the breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex accompanying SSW onset for BCC_CSM(ECMWF) is the hindcast initiated two(three) weeks earlier. The predictive skills of both models during SSW winters are always higher than that during non-SSW winters, in relation to the successfully captured tropospheric precursors and the associated upward propagation of planetary waves by the model initializations. To narrow the gap in SSW predictive skill between BCC_CSM and ECMWF, ensemble forecasts and error corrections are performed with BCC_CSM. The SSW predictive skill in the ensemble hindcasts and the error corrections are improved compared with the previous control forecasts.  相似文献   

基于偏最小二乘回归的区域换式风速预报订正技术研究     

杨程  姜瑜君  余贞寿  姜文东  康丽莉  王丽吉 《气象》2019,(5):676-684

利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013-2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91.7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86.5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。  相似文献   

CWRF模式在中国夏季极端降水模拟的误差订正          下载免费PDF全文

董晓云  余锦华  梁信忠  马圆 《应用气象学报》2019,30(2):223-232

利用1980—2015年6—8月我国逐日降水观测数据评估CWRF模式（Climate-Weather Research and Forecasting model）多种参数化方案对我国夏季日降水的模拟能力,并考察累积概率变换偏差订正法（CDFt）的订正效果。通过将广义帕累托分布（GPD）引入到偏差订正模型中,提出针对极端降水的累积概率变换偏差订正法（XCDFt）,检验和评估其对极端降水订正的适用性。结果显示:CWRF模式微物理过程选用Morrison-aerosol参数化方案组合对我国降水场的模拟较好,CDFt订正效果良好;XCDFt偏差订正模型能够较好地提取模式建模与验证时期变化信号,订正后相比订正前与观测极端降水的概率分布更为接近;经过XCDFt订正后华南、华中和华北地区20年一遇的极端降水重现水平较模拟值更接近观测值,可为CWRF模式提高极端降水的业务预测水平提供参考。  相似文献   

基于最优概率的中期延伸期过程累计降水量分级订正预报     

牛若芸 《热带气象学报》2019,35(6):721-731

采用ECMWF集合预报降水量资料和中国降水量观测资料,研发了基于最优概率的过程累计降水量分级订正预报(OPPF)技术,并在遵循总体技术思路的基础上设计出三种不同的OPPF计算方案(OPPF1、OPPF2、OPPF3),继而选用2015—2017年汛期(5—9月)中国91次区域性强降水过程进行回报试验和预报效果对比评估,结果表明:(1)在中期延伸期预报时效(96~360小时),对强降水和有无降水的预报效果,三种OPPF均明显优于集合平均(EMPF)和控制预报(CTPF);对中等以上或较强以上强度降水的预报效果,OPPF1和OPPF3明显优于CTPF、与EMPF基本接近。(2)三种OPPF相比,OPPF3的预报效果较OPPF1总体略胜一筹,两者均好于OPPF2。(3)预报效果存在明显的地域差异,南方地区强降水预报的TS评分明显大于北方地区,且OPPF3预报效果明显优于EMPF;在96~240小时预报时效,东北地区东部OPPF3强降水的预报效果也明显好于EMPF。   相似文献   

Nb–Ta fractionation induced by fluid‐rock interaction in subduction‐zones: constraints from UHP eclogite‐ and vein‐hosted rutile from the Dabie orogen,Central‐Eastern China     

J. HUANG  Y. XIAO  Y. GAO  Z. HOU  W. WU 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2012,30(8):821-842

Niobium and Ta concentrations in ultrahigh‐pressure (UHP) eclogites and rutile from these eclogites and associated high pressure (HP) veins were used to study the behaviour of Nb–Ta during dehydration and fluid‐rock interaction. Samples were collected through a ～2 km profile at the Bixiling complex in the Dabie orogenic belt, Central‐Eastern China. All but one eclogite away from veins (EAVs) display nearly constant Nb/Ta ratios ranging from 16.1 to 19.2, with an average of 16.9 ± 0.8 (2 SE), similar to that of their gabbroic protolith from the Yangtze Block. Nb/Ta ratios of rutile from the EAVs range from 12.7 to 25.3 among different individual grains, with the average values close to those of the corresponding bulk rocks. These observations show that Nb and Ta were not significantly fractionated by prograde metamorphism up to eclogite facies when no significant fluid‐rock interaction occurs. In contrast, Nb/Ta ratios of rutile from eclogites close to veins (ECVs) are highly variable from 17.8 to 49.8, which are systematically higher (by up to 17) than those of rutile from the veins. These observations demonstrate that Nb and Ta were mobilized and fractionated during localized fluid flow and intensive fluid‐rock interaction. This is strongly supported by Nb/Ta zoning patterns in single rutile grains revealed by in situ LA‐ICP‐MS analysis. Ratios of Nb/Ta in the ECV‐hosted rutile decrease gradually from cores towards rims, whereas those in the EAV‐hosted rutile are nearly invariable. Furthermore, the vein rutile shows Nb/Ta zoning patterns that are complementary to those in rutile from their immediate hosts (ECVs), suggesting an internal origin for the vein‐forming fluids. The Nb/Ta ratios of such fluids evolved from low values at the early stage of subduction to higher values at later supercritical conditions with increased temperature and pressure. Quantitative modelling was conducted to constrain the compositional evolution of metamorphic fluids during dehydration and fluid‐rock interaction focusing on Nb–Ta distribution. The modelling results based on our proposed multistage fluid phase evolution path can essentially reproduce the natural observations reported in the present study.  相似文献   

唐山震区深反射剖面分析   总被引：14，自引：2，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

陆涵行  曾融生  郭建明  林中洋 《地球物理学报》1988,31(1):27-36

为了进一步研究唐山地区深部地壳构造与唐山大地震孕育及发生的关系,国家地震局地球物理研究所在石油部物探局的协助下,于1985年1月在唐山震区完成了64km长的深反射剖面野外观测,获得了高分辨率的整个地壳结构的详细资料。分析结果表明,唐山震区内深度500m以上的沉积层十分破碎;结晶基底为前震旦纪地层,埋深2-7km不等,覆盖地层倾斜,且断层发育,其中陡河断裂为正断层,延深至6-7km,推断该断层为1976年唐山发震的重要构造之一。测线上大约21km深处普遍存在一反射层;莫霍面深度在31-32km左右,与该地区折射剖面得到的结果相当一致。  相似文献   

新疆阿尔泰花岗岩源区混合-结晶分异复合过程的微量元素效应     

刘伟  刘丛强 《大地构造与成矿学》1993,17(4):335-344

根据微量元素e1、e2、e3总分配系数的相对大小,源区混合-结晶分异复合过程在它们的比值-比值相关图上造成三种综合效应。新疆阿尔泰花岗岩微量元素的比值-比值相关图清晰地反映了三种效应,暗示着源区混合-结晶分异复合过程。源区混合机制可能为沉积物质在沉积盆地里的掺合。混合端员可能为:1)成熟度差异悬殊的陆源碎屑物质;2)陆源碎屑与基性火山物质。  相似文献   

稳定同位素地球化学研究新况   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

丁悌平 《地学前缘》1994,(4)

近年来稳定同位素地球化学进展显著。同位素测试方面的主要进展表现为：①离子探针质谱及激光制样系统的迅速发展和在同位素分析中广泛应用；②同位素测量仪器的自动化和电脑化；③分析方法和结果标准化；④新的同位素分析方法的开拓。同位素分馏机制方面最突出的进展是对与质量无关的同位素分馏的研究。已发现这种分馏在大气化学反应中和前太阳系阶段起重要作用。同时对热力学和动力学同位素分馏研究正进一步系统化。同位素应用方面，地球表面圈层研究受到更多注意。与资源与环境问题直接相关的研究更受到特别重视。对硼、硅、氯和锂等同位素新方法的地质应用也进展突出。  相似文献   

热流测量中垂向地下水运动干扰的校正方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

胡圣标  熊亮萍 《地质科学》1994,29(1):85-92

本文提出了一种地表热流测量中垂向地下水干扰的校正方法。并以江西萍乡和福建安溪的二个钻孔为例,说明了热流校正的具体过程。由于地下水对流传热的影响,垂向地下水渗透层内温度和热流随深度均呈指数分布。通过对钻孔测温数据的一维垂向Peclet数分析,可以确定渗透层内传导和对流热流分量以及热流的构成,从而得到未受地下水对流干扰的区域背景热流。这一方法不仅适用于渗透率结构均一的介质,也可用于水平层状介质。  相似文献