对中强地震发震时间的模糊灰色预测     

蒋海昆 《山西地震》1992,(1):31-36

本文视地震系统为模糊灰色系统,由此建立关于发震时间的模糊灰色预测模型,该模型认为已知地震样本集及待预测集的震级分布属模糊正态分布,应用模糊聚类思路于样本集元素的选取,引入最佳震级从属函数μ~*的选择过程。针对可能产生的趋势性偏差,根据实际资料对模型进行了修正。并以华北平原地震带、燕山渤海地震带及山西地震带为例,对模糊灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的实际应用及有关问题进行了初步讨论。  相似文献   

矿床品位指标优化方法探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

田家华  杨昌明 《地球科学》1992,17(2):181-188

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地下水资源系统多目标管理模型与模糊带权二次规划方法   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

谢新民 《水文地质工程地质》1993,20(4):17-21,43

本文以济南地下水资源系统保泉供水管理课题为例,分析研究地下水资源系统多目标管理问题。首先建立起地下水资源系统多目标管理模型;然后利用模糊数学理论和权重概念,提出一种求解多目标决策问题的模糊带权二次规划方法,此方法可以同时解决互为竞争、互为矛盾的各目标之间的不可公度性和主次性问题。实际计算表明,所建立的模型和提出的方法具有较强的实用性和通用性。  相似文献   

能源基地晋陕蒙接壤地区地质环境质量定量研究     

何荣文 《陕西地质》1993,(2)

本文基于地质环境是由诸多因素有机组合而成,其质量也是各因素质量的复杂组合,是一种模糊现象,难以精确评价,但又存在明显差异的认识,采用模糊数学理论,即以环境地质亚区为单元,考虑多因素的综合影响。采用数量化的动态聚类法,对晋陕蒙接壤地区地质环境质量进行了评价:包括自然条件下地质环境质量评价和煤炭、水资源开发后地质环境质量的相对变化评价。  相似文献   

Flood-type trend analysis for alpine catchments     

Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner  Jan Seibert 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(8):1281-1299

ABSTRACT

In many places, magnitudes and frequencies of floods are expected to increase due to climate change. To understand these changes better, trend analyses of historical data are helpful. However, traditional trend analyses do not address issues related to shifts in the relative contributions of rainfall versus snowmelt floods, or in the frequency of a particular flood type. We present a novel approach for quantifying such trends in time series of floods using a fuzzy decision tree for event classification and applied it to maximal annual and seasonal floods in 27 alpine catchments for the period 1980–2014. Trends in flood types were studied with Sen’s slope and double mass curves. Our results reveal a decreasing number of rain-on-snow and an increasing number of short rainfall events in all catchments, with flash floods increasing in smaller catchments. Overall, the results demonstrate the value of incorporating a fuzzy flood-type classification into flood trend analyses.  相似文献   

Knowledge-Driven and Data-Driven Fuzzy Models for Predictive Mineral Potential Mapping   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

Porwal  Alok  Carranza  E. J. M.  Hale  M. 《Natural Resources Research》2003,12(1):1-25

In this paper, we describe new fuzzy models for predictive mineral potential mapping: (1) a knowledge-driven fuzzy model that uses a logistic membership function for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps and (2) a data-driven model, which uses a piecewise linear function based on quantified spatial associations between a set of evidential evidence features and a set of known mineral deposits for deriving fuzzy membership values of input evidential maps. We also describe a graphical defuzzification procedure for the interpretation of output fuzzy favorability maps. The models are demonstrated for mapping base metal deposit potential in an area in the south-central part of the Aravalli metallogenic province in the state of Rajasthan, western India. The data-driven and knowledge-driven models described in this paper predict potentially mineralized zones, which occupy less than 10% of the study area and contain at least 83% of the model and validation base metal deposits. A cross-validation of the favorability map derived from using one of the models with the favorability map derived from using the other model indicates a remarkable similarity in their results. Both models therefore are useful for predicting favorable zones to guide further exploration work.  相似文献   

Effects of variable attribute weights on landform classification     

Y. X. Deng  J. P. Wilson  J. Sheng 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2006,31(11):1452-1462

This paper focuses on the attribute weight issue and advocates use of modi?able attribute weights in terrain‐based environmental analysis and classi?cation. A question was asked: ‘How much will the result of a terrain‐based environmental analysis be affected if the weights of used terrain attributes are changed?’ The literature on landform classi?cation and the fuzzy k‐means method was reviewed in particular to help clarify the background and importance of this weight assignment issue. As an example, the effects of modifying attribute weights were evaluated for fuzzy k‐means landform classi?cation in a case study area. A total of 102 classi?cations were compared with each other and with a soil map, and comparison methods were speci?cally designed to evaluate the differences between these classi?cations. The results show that fuzzy k‐means landform classi?cation is sensitive to weight adjustments of adopted terrain attributes. The sensitivity is particularly high when the attribute weights started to be tuned away from the standard (i.e. uniform) weight of one. Better matching between landform classi?cation and a soil map may be produced when attribute weights are tuned. In all, we advocate the widespread adoption of an exploratory attitude in assigning attribute weights for environmental analysis and classi?cation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

环境同位素和模糊聚类法研究堤坝渗漏          下载免费PDF全文

樊哲超  陈建生  李世兴 《水科学进展》2006,17(1):37-42

利用环境同位素方法对高水河堤防几个典型段进行了渗漏分析,查明了其地下水的渗漏来源,结果表明,江都船厂段T1#孔、小菜谭段T23#孔中的地下水为河水补给来源,T5#孔附近的黑鱼塘水为当地降雨补给,万寿宫段T7#孔中的地下水为河水和当地降雨的混合。由于环境同位素的分析方法只能定性的说明问题,笔者尝试应用模糊聚类方法,选取环境同位素和水化学值作为指标特征值,并赋与不同的权重,进行模糊聚类分析,分析结果与环境同位素、水化学分析结论一致。  相似文献   

基于可持续发展的区域水资源多目标优化配置研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

罗利民  仲跃  张晟  谢能刚 《水文》2006,26(4):6-9

以区域经济发展与水环境保护相协调为目标,考虑社会各产业经济部门的污水处理和节水调节的控制作用,建立水资源多目标优化配置模型,并利用模糊理论构建评价函数。通过应用于盐城市水资源的优化配置,计算分析结果表明该方法具有良好的可行性和合理性。  相似文献   

应用逼近理想解法综合评价区域水资源承载能力   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

崔振才  曹广占  刘秋生  靳兆荣  高振芬 《水文》2006,26(5):7-10

在多目标决策中,基于传统的逼近于理想解的技术,根据区域水资源承载能力的强与弱和待评价的对象(评价方案)的不理想(负理想)与理想(劣与优)这些典型的模糊概念,提出了基于模糊集合的逼近理想解法(TOPSISFS),并应用于区域水资源承载能力的综合评价中。TOPSISFS与投影寻踪模型法(PP法)、理想区间法(MODMIIM)相比,简单、有效。TOPSISFS可广泛应用于多目标决策中。  相似文献